Central Asia's militaries will lag NATO and Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Modern Equipment ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Military Expenditures ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Weapons Procurement ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Central Asian militaries Significance Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are leading other Central Asian governments in increased spending on military and security forces and the procurement of modern equipment. Regional governments have long-standing fears of potential Russian military interference and remain concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. The increase in military expenditures is expanding capabilities, although the degree and pace of improvement varies from country to country, and regional militaries still lag Russian and NATO forces. Impacts Russian forces presence in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will increase. Turkmenistan will place greater emphasis on modern weapons procurement and naval assets. Mobile and counter-terrorism focused forces will be seen as more important than conventional land forces.

China will build buffer with Afghanistan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Security Assistance ◽  
Rising Power ◽  
Political Leverage ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Chinese security assistance to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Significance China is reportedly providing direct aid to Afghanistan's security forces, including base-building, contributions of equipment and joint patrols to strengthen links and capacity. Some interpret this as a sign of a rising power expanding its military activities beyond its borders and expect Beijing to become more active in the region's political affairs. Impacts Chinese economic involvement in Tajikistan may eventually bring some political leverage. Expanding Chinese economic involvement with Central Asia does not necessarily mean a greater military presence will follow. Regional governments and Western stakeholders alike will be frustrated by China's unwillingness to take a leadership role in Afghanistan.

Russia and allies seek damage limitation with Taliban

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Collective Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Base ◽  
Us Military ◽  
Security Treaty ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Damage Limitation ◽  
Almost All ◽  
North Western ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance Since May the Taliban have taken control of almost all areas adjoining Central Asian borders. A remaining stretch between Turkmenistan and north-western Afghanistan is likely to follow soon. Disrupted trade and a possible refugee influx are not the only worries for regional governments; the presence of Central Asian jihadists in areas captured by the Taliban is cause for concern. Impacts Uzbekistan and Tajikistan may review their refusal to host a US military base, but have many reasons to avoid going ahead. The Uzbek presidency says there are no plans to join Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organisation. Even the most reluctant Central Asian policymakers will have to engage with the Taliban to press them to keep other jihadists in check.

Taliban's war outpaces efforts for Afghan settlement

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Damage Limitation ◽  
Government Security

Significance He may ask Ghani to step aside and make way for an interim government, in the hope that this will halt the apparent slide into chaos. The Taliban are capturing territory rapidly across Afghanistan and panic is spreading among government security forces. The Taliban are complying with a promise not to attack provincial capitals but have surrounded several and are just waiting for US and other NATO-led forces to leave Afghanistan. Impacts Pakistan, Iran and perhaps Russia and Saudi Arabia are lobbying for their proteges to be included or spared under Taliban rule. The international focus will switch to damage limitation and securing Taliban cooperation on counter-terrorism and minimal human rights. The pace of the Taliban’s advance is so stunning that Islamabad is wondering how it can curb or control them.

CIS forces will not enter Afghanistan after ISAF

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
And Training

Significance With the ending of ISAF's mission, a new mission named 'Resolute Support' comes into force, with about 13,000 troops providing support and training to Afghanistan's 350,000 security personnel. However, despite this continuing support, fear continues to rise that 2015 will see a significant resurgence of extremist groups inside Afghanistan, with the prospect of a spill-over of fighting into Central Asia. Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held their largest counter-terrorism drills in August 2014, and it is likely that 2015 will see further significant SCO military drills in Central Asia. Impacts Increased security clampdown in Central Asia in 2015 will come at the expense of democratic freedoms. Despite Chinese and Russian military capabilities, the SCO will lack the capacity to replace NATO in Afghanistan. Afghanistan's instability will provide an avenue for renewed limited security cooperation between Russia and the West.

Unstable Central Asia will drive Russian regional ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Foreign Operations ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russia security and military interests in Central Asia. Significance On January 8, Dushanbe announced the names of four Tajikistani soldiers abducted by unidentified Afghanistan groups. With international forces largely ending their mission in Afghanistan on December 28, concern is growing regarding the threat posed to Central Asia. Central Asian nations are likely to have to cooperate more and rely on Russian military support. Moscow maintains a sizeable military presence in Tajikistan and an air base in Kyrgyzstan. In January, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to serve in the Russian military, which could lead to sizeable numbers of Central Asians enlisting. Impacts Russian military capability for deniable foreign operations will grow if significant numbers of foreigners enlist. A security clampdown in Uzbekistan in the run-up to the March presidential election is likely. States will probably arm local non-governmental groups to help police borders with Afghanistan.

Uzbek-Kazakh thaw can ease tensions and reshape region

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Security Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
Economic Union

Subject Improvements in Kazakh-Uzbek relations. Significance Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are the key Central Asian states and the dynamics of their relationship have implications for all their neighbours. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's visit to Tashkent on September 16 was hailed as the start of a new era in a sometimes troubled relationship. The change in mood was initiated by Shavqat Mirzioyev, Uzbekistan's president since December 2016. Impacts Uzbekistan is unlikely to reverse its stance on the Eurasian Economic Union, which it is reluctant to join. Kazakh-Uzbek cooperation is likely to include counter-terrorism and other security measures. A better bilateral relationship will facilitate China's Belt and Road initiative in Central Asia.

Taliban assaults set to slow NATO's Afghan drawdown

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Security ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asian Security ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The Us

Subject Security outlook. Significance Fighting between Afghan security forces and the Taliban for control of the centre of Kunduz is continuing with no immediate prospect of the insurgents being driven from the city's suburbs. Meanwhile, Taliban forces have launched attacks elsewhere, straining but crucially not paralysing Kabul's response. The prevailing insecurity has led the US administration and its NATO allies to reconsider their plans to withdraw combat troops. Impacts Foreign businesses can obtain a degree of security via a private security force or local deals with Taliban forces. The NATO drawdown will dampen investor appetite, leaving Kabul ever-more dependent on donors' largesse. Taliban offensives in the northern provinces will undercut Central Asian security.

Islamic State's Central Asian growth stalled for now

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Returning Home ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance Thousands of Central Asians travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight for IS and other Islamist groups in 2014 and some are returning home. Despite attacks in Central Asia attributable to home-grown IS supporters, the threat of IS expansion is less immediate than sometimes asserted by commentators, regional governments and jihadists themselves. Impacts A further deterioration in Afghan security would create space for IS to consolidate and then infiltrate Central Asia. IS may support Central Asian attacks as an indirect way of pressuring Russia. The Taliban pose no threat to Central Asia despite their militant connections.

Differing aims limit Russia's tactical Taliban ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
External Powers

Subject Russia's engagement with the Taliban. Significance Russia is seeking to strengthen its influence in Afghanistan as a power vacuum emerges from gradual US disengagement, and is negotiating with Pakistan and the Taliban. As well as engaging with the Kabul government, Russian officials are providing the Taliban with financial and military aid in hope the militants will contain the rise of other threats: Islamic State (IS) and Central Asian jihadists in Afghanistan. Impacts Backing a militant jihadist group at war with the United States conflicts with Russia's counter-terrorism stance elsewhere. Russian funding simply replicates old patterns where external powers 'rent' local armed groups. The Russian factor may intensify strife within the Taliban, undermining unity.

Burkinabe government will expand counterterrorism push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fast Tracking ◽  
The North ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Government Security ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance The new regional counterterrorism force is deemed necessary to counter increased terrorist attacks both within and across regional boundaries of the G5 states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger). In August, 19 people were killed in a deadly terrorist assault in the Burkinabe capital, Ouagadougou. The militant resurgence is pushing the Burkinabe government to react more quickly and aggressively than before, while simultaneously fast-tracking several development programmes to placate its domestic critics. Impacts Public pressure will increase on regional governments to make the G5 counterterrorism force operational. The government’s new emergency development plan for the north will temporarily ease citizens' concern over the security forces' limitations. Sensitive forthcoming trials of former regime officials will make government security gains even more important to avoid public unrest.

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