Burkinabe government will expand counterterrorism push

Significance The new regional counterterrorism force is deemed necessary to counter increased terrorist attacks both within and across regional boundaries of the G5 states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger). In August, 19 people were killed in a deadly terrorist assault in the Burkinabe capital, Ouagadougou. The militant resurgence is pushing the Burkinabe government to react more quickly and aggressively than before, while simultaneously fast-tracking several development programmes to placate its domestic critics. Impacts Public pressure will increase on regional governments to make the G5 counterterrorism force operational. The government’s new emergency development plan for the north will temporarily ease citizens' concern over the security forces' limitations. Sensitive forthcoming trials of former regime officials will make government security gains even more important to avoid public unrest.

Subject Rising instability in Burkina Faso Significance After two years in office, President Roch Marc Christian Kabore’s government is facing a wave of strikes, student protests and demonstrations by disgruntled local communities. This unrest comes as the Burkinabe security forces struggle to contain salafi-jihadist insurgents in the north amid public criticisms of poor government leadership. Kabore's administration has stated that a recent cabinet reshuffle will refocus energies on the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES). However, growing public discontent is emboldening the previously weak opposition. Impacts Growing civil unrest could divert funding and resources from the northern provinces most vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The government will try to avoid clamping down on protests for fear of aiding the opposition further. If conducted fairly, long-delayed trials of former regime leaders could increase the government’s popularity.


Subject The militarisation of security. Significance Lack of police capability and the scale of Guatemala's security challenges mean that the military role in combatting organised crime will continue, despite concerns. President Jimmy Morales recently announced that the military would continue to support police with domestic security. This comes as security challenges remain acute, particularly in urban areas and the northern Peten department. Impacts Peten will remain the focus point of drug trafficking activity, though extortion in urban areas will be a more pressing concern. Public pressure for a tough approach to crime means that periodic excesses by security forces will continue to be tolerated. While Guatemala faces similar security challenges to neighbouring countries, there is little prospect of increased cooperation.


Subject Chinese security assistance to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Significance China is reportedly providing direct aid to Afghanistan's security forces, including base-building, contributions of equipment and joint patrols to strengthen links and capacity. Some interpret this as a sign of a rising power expanding its military activities beyond its borders and expect Beijing to become more active in the region's political affairs. Impacts Chinese economic involvement in Tajikistan may eventually bring some political leverage. Expanding Chinese economic involvement with Central Asia does not necessarily mean a greater military presence will follow. Regional governments and Western stakeholders alike will be frustrated by China's unwillingness to take a leadership role in Afghanistan.


Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.


Asian Survey ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nira Wickramasinghe

The year 2008 saw a successful military campaign by government security forces against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the North. Elections to the Eastern Province resulted in a break away faction of the LTTE sharing power with the government. People continued to endure high inflation in the price of essential goods and services, and the country's human rights record remained dismal.


Subject The implications of deploying troops domestically as a counter to terrorism. Significance In the aftermath of the attacks against the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, France deployed thousands of troops to patrol the streets and protect potential targets. The role of the military in domestic counterterrorism is a long-standing and controversial issue. Public pressure on decisionmakers to respond to terrorist attacks can be immense, yet the effectiveness of deploying the military domestically on a large scale is debatable. Impacts Large-scale troop deployments can have a negative effect on tourism. More visible patrols provide more targets for terrorists. They could also alienate those communities whose support is needed to combat extremism.


Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.


Subject Tunisia's police service. Significance Elements of the state security sector have been acting autonomously from the state since the Arab uprisings. The threat of terrorism continues to facilitate this trajectory, and parliamentary and presidential elections planned for 2019 could bring the issue into sharp focus. Impacts Increased terrorist attacks may prompt the government to allow the police greater leeway when investigating suspects. Victims of police mistreatment are unlikely to secure justice. Increased terrorist attacks may lead to legislation to strengthen the security forces’ ability to avoid transparency.


Subject Problems facing Fulani communities in the Sahel. Significance In July, the Northern Elders' Forum of Nigeria, a prominent civil society organisation, called for Fulani herders to leave southern Nigeria and return to their historical homelands in the north, reflecting a sense among some northerners that the south has become too dangerous for the Fulani ethnic group. Amid a marked increase in jihadist violence in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria since the early 2010s, the Fulani have found themselves targets of widespread ethnic profiling and even collective punishment. Impacts Tensions surrounding the Fulani in Mali are spreading into Burkina Faso and Niger as community members feel stigmatised more generally. Government will find it difficult to disarm former partner militias, such as the ethnic Dogon militia Dan Na Ambassagou in Mali. Respect for human rights would help stem radical recruitment among young Fulanis.


Significance Following a relative slackening of activity, 480 civilians were killed between May and August alone, bringing the total number of Burkinabe deaths since the first attacks in 2015 to more than 1,500. Insecurity seems to be disturbing wider social relations as well, with frequent community protests, deadly vigilante actions and clashes between artisanal miners and mine security forces. Impacts The army’s questionable human rights record may hinder efforts to improve relations with local communities. Organised labour may seek to capitalise on government failures to press its own demands. Failure to reduce armed conflict in the border regions may encourage more violence in the country’s centre as well.


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