Differing aims limit Russia's tactical Taliban ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
External Powers

Subject Russia's engagement with the Taliban. Significance Russia is seeking to strengthen its influence in Afghanistan as a power vacuum emerges from gradual US disengagement, and is negotiating with Pakistan and the Taliban. As well as engaging with the Kabul government, Russian officials are providing the Taliban with financial and military aid in hope the militants will contain the rise of other threats: Islamic State (IS) and Central Asian jihadists in Afghanistan. Impacts Backing a militant jihadist group at war with the United States conflicts with Russia's counter-terrorism stance elsewhere. Russian funding simply replicates old patterns where external powers 'rent' local armed groups. The Russian factor may intensify strife within the Taliban, undermining unity.

Afghanistan risks becoming a 'failed state'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Failed State ◽  
National Unity ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Security ◽  
Central Asian

Subject Outlook for the Afghan state. Significance The steady decline of Afghanistan's security situation and economy, and the paralysis of the National Unity Government led by President Ashraf Ghani, have brought into sharp relief the negligible returns of the heavy financial, military and political capital expended on the country by NATO allies, especially the United States, since 2001. With NATO's drawdown now in its final years, Afghanistan faces dire prospects. Impacts Central Asian security will suffer as Taliban insurgents expand in the north. However, a strong Taliban will also contain the Islamic State group's footprint in Afghanistan. Pakistan will prioritise its own national interests regarding Afghanistan, mainly to pressure India.

United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Sectarianism will weaken Iraqi state

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Significance Sectarian tensions in Iraq were exacerbated when the radical Sunni Islamic State group (ISG) seized Mosul in 2014 and Iraq's Shia militias were mobilised to fill the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi army. Impacts Sectarian tensions will prolong political paralysis and, therefore, undermine efforts to reform the politics and economy of the country. Iran will extend its influence over Baghdad, at the expense of the United States. Political paralysis and weaker US ties would deepen Iraq's fiscal crisis.

Transition is unlikely to revive the Malian economy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Working Conditions ◽  
Human Development Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Military Aid

Significance Mali’s economy has suffered a double blow in recent months from ECOWAS sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, amidst political turbulence and ongoing insecurity. The country ranks 184th out of 189 countries, according to the most recent Human Development Index. Impacts Economic hardship could lead to renewed unrest. Labour unions are already ratcheting up pressure; several are planning to strike from October 19 over pay and working conditions. The transition may allow the resumption of development aid, although the United States has suspended military aid until elections.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

US aims to check Russia in Central Asia 'Great Game'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Public Criticism

Subject US relations with Central Asia. Significance US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Central Asia in early November, in an effort to boost Washington's influence in a region that is increasingly dominated by Russia and also China. Central Asian states worry that the region has declined in importance for the United States, owing to Washington's overall drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Impacts Over-reliance on remittances will pose major risk to Central Asian economies. Central Asian states will continue to try and extract concessions from United States, Russia and China. Washington will diminish its public criticism of human rights abuses in Central Asia but maintain pressure in private.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

Stronger Turkish influence may not benefit Bosnia

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cultural Events ◽  
The Third ◽  
Conflicting Interests ◽  
External Powers

Subject Turkish influence in Bosnia. Significance Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent visit to Sarajevo highlighted his powerful influence in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), as shown by the Bosnia-wide commemoration of the third anniversary of the failed coup in Turkey with numerous diplomatic, sporting and cultural events. Impacts A worsening in Turkish-US relations after Ankara’s purchase of Russian S-400 missiles against strong US warnings could complicate matters. Bosnian and other Balkan leaders may have to choose between the United States and Turkey, just as Serbia wavers between the West and Russia. The conflicting interests of various external powers could exacerbate regional ethnic and political divisions, undermining stability.

Turkish zone will push back 'Islamic State' in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance Turkey carried out its first airstrikes inside Syria on July 24, almost a year after the start of the US-led campaign against ISG. However, critics claim that Turkey is simply joining the anti-ISG operations as a pretext to prevent Kurdish militants in Syria from seizing new territory along the border. Ankara has said it plans to establish a security belt controlled by Syrian Arab rebel units in territory on the Syrian side of the Turkish border currently held by ISG. Impacts Expansion of the anti-ISG campaign to al-Bab and Manbij would see new refugee influxes into Turkey. Setbacks in Aleppo would reinforce ISG's drive to expand into Homs province. ISG will be tempted to carry out retaliatory attacks against the Turkish authorities and economy. Damascus will avoid direct military confrontation with Turkey and the United States in northern Syria. Syrian rebels, particularly the more moderate factions, will benefit from the weakening of ISG.

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