Explaining Aggregated Recovery Rates

This study on explaining aggregated recovery rates (ARR) is based on the largest existing loss and recovery database for commercial loans provided by Global Credit Data, which includes defaults from 5 continents and over 120 countries. The dependence of monthly ARR from bank loans on various macroeconomic factors is examined and sources of their variability are stated. For the first time, an influence of stochastically estimated monthly growth of GDP USA and Europe is quantified. To extract monthly signals of GDP USA and Europe, dynamic factor models for panel data of different frequency information are employed. Then, the behavior of the ARR is investigated using several regression models with unshifted and shifted explanatory variables in time to improve their forecasting power by taking into account the economic situation after the default. An application of a Markov switching model shows that the distribution of the ARR differs between crisis and prosperity times. The best fit among the compared models is reached by the Markov switching model. Moreover, a significant influence of the estimated monthly growth of GDP in Europe is observed for both crises and prosperity times.

Analisis Sistem Pembiayaan Akad Qardhul Hasan Di BMT Al-Amanah Cabang Subang

The Qardhul Hasan financing at BMT Al-Amanah Subang was not surveyed again, because the Qardhul Hasan survey had been carried out at the beginning of the members doing previous financing such as Mudharabah, Murabahah, Musyarakah, and Rahn financing, because Qarhdul Hasan financing is a conversion from the previous contract. Qardhul Hasan financing has certain categories for financing the needs of members such as education costs, medical expenses, and so on. The purpose of this study was to determine the terms and conditions of financing Qardhul Hasan at BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch; To find out the Qardhul Hasan contract financing system at BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch; and To find out the benefits of the Qardhul Hasan Agreement for members and managers of BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch. The results of this study 1). The terms and conditions of Qardhul Hasan financing at BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch do not use collateral on the condition that they must become members of BMT Al-Amanah, and members are no longer able to pay installments of previous contract financing that have matured; 2. Qardhul Hasan Financing System at BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch, namely: a). For members of BMT Al-Amanah who are active members by having principal and mandatory savings, b). For members who already have financing, which is past due, but have difficulty paying the financing installments, BMT Al-Amanah converts the contract into Qardhul Hasan; 3). The benefits of Qardhul hasan for members and managers are: a). For members, it is very helpful for members who are having difficulty paying installments and as a source of non-commercial loans / bailout funds, b). For managers, namely because Qardhul Hasan financing is social and please help it will give a good image for BMT Al-Amanah Subang Branch.

SOURCES OF FINANCING AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN DAIRY FARMS WITH DIFFERENT SCALES OF COW REARING

The aim of the research was to evaluate the sources of financing agricultural activities in farms specialized in milk production. The subject of research was a group of family farms located in the Podlaskie and Mazowieckie voivodeships (provinces). The criterion for farm division was the number of cows in the basic herd. There was also an assessment of the most important factors conducive to the development of dairy farms. To do so, the opinions of dairy farmers were used, and their views in this regard were expressed on a five-point Likert scale. The research was conducted on a sample of 100 farms in 2021. The interpretation of the results was made in relation to the criterion adopted in the division of farms into quartiles. It was found that the main source of financing activities in dairy farms was own funds. The highest share of farms using commercial loans was in the group of farms with the largest number of cows. With an increase in the number of cows in a herd, the area of farms increased, which is understandable due to the need to produce roughage. The most important factors influencing the development possibilities of agricultural holdings were the uninterrupted collection of raw material and a stable milk purchase price, which guaranteed the farmers’ financial liquidity.

Strategic resource allocation and performance of Kisumu Water and Sewerage Company, Kenya

Kisumu Water and Sewerage Company has consistently struggled to achieve its envisioned accepted performance range of 80-90% set by the Water Sector Regulatory Board standards, for instance, the company performance was estimated at 76% against business plan target of 80% despite having unlimited access to government subsidies, donor grants, commercial loans and enabling policy environment based on performance review of Kenya’s water services sector 2017/2018. This study sought to establish the influence of strategic resource allocation on performance of KIWASCO. The study adopted a correlation research design with a sample size of 68 respondents selected through Stratified random sampling and data collected using a semi-structured questionnaire. Both descriptive and inferential statistics of correlation and regression were used. The study established a significant influence of resource allocation (p<0.001) on organizational performance at 5% level of significance. It was concluded that for desired performance of KIWASCO to be realized, effective resource allocation should be done to increase investments in infrastructural expansion and rehabilitation, wastage reduction, improved service quality, maximized consumer services and improved cash flow. The study recommends that the WASH sector reforms should prioritize resource allocation for implementation of strategies. Future research should explore the moderating role of strategic leadership in similar companies and trends across business periods within similar regulatory context.

Using Loan Loss Indicators by Loan Type to Sharpen the Evaluation of Banks' Loan Loss Accruals

Prior research acknowledges that the determinants, timeliness, and economic implications of banks' provisions for loan losses (PLL) vary across loan types. However, the lack of machine-readable data on PLL by loan type has precluded researchers from incorporating loan type into the evaluation of PLL beyond either controlling for or partitioning the sample on crude proxies for loan portfolio composition. We calculate PLL by loan type as the change in the allowance for loan losses by loan type, which we hand collect from Form 10-K filings, plus net charge-offs by loan type, which we obtain from regulatory filings. Using these data, we show that prior findings that banks exercise discretion over PLL to smooth earnings and increase regulatory capital are driven by commercial loans, a thin slice of banks' loan portfolios, and that commonly used measures of PLL timeliness vary substantially across loan types.

Basel capital requirements, portfolio shift and bank lending in Africa

Bank lending is a major source of income for a bank. Compliance with higher Basel capital requirements (CAR) portends serious implication for distribution of loan portfolio across different sectors. The objective of the study is to examine African banks’ responses to higher CAR in terms of portfolio shift. The study used descriptive statistics and ANOVA for panel data of African commercial banks that have implemented Basel II or III CAR for the period 2000 and 2018. Based on the results of our analysis, implementation of higher Basel CAR by African banks revealed four key findings. Firstly, our results suggest that higher Basel CAR particularly Basel III reduced total loans for South African banks. Secondly, African banks engage in portfolio shift with higher Basel levels. Thirdly, higher Basel capital increased banks' capital ratios in Africa, but some banks are still characterized by low equity. Fourthly, African banks reduce lending to high risk-weighted loans such as real estate and commercial loans except for South African banks which increased lending to commercial loans with higher Basel CAR. Lastly, this study proffers key insight into the lending behaviour of African banks with the implementation of higher Basel CAR.

Agriculture Loans in Cooperative Banks of the Podlaskie Voivodeship

SummarySubject and purpose of work: Running an agricultural activity requires acquiring funds necessary for its functioning and proper development. The most classic examples of financing agricultural activity include all kinds of bank loans used by farmers for the purchase of agricultural land, construction and modernization of buildings, the purchase of machinery and equipment, as well as the establishment of perennial plantations or the purchase of a herd. The aim of the study is to present the possibilities of financing agricultural activity by cooperative banks in the Podlaskie Voivodeship.Materials and methods: The study used the method of observation and analysis of banking materials. The source of information was the data of cooperative banks, the Agency for Restructuring and Modernization of Agriculture and the Central Statistical Office.Results: Over the centuries, cooperative banks have developed techniques, methods and practices in the field of agricultural lending. They have somehow specialized in this area and offer farmers a full range of commercial loans. They have also actively participated in the redistribution of funds under the implementation of the EU Common Agricultural Policy. for many years. Currently operating farms have access to many forms of financing (the most developed and available in banks, however, are loans) depending on their financial needs or planned investments.Conclusions: Among many forms of foreign capital in agriculture, it is preferential loans that play a significant role as a stimulus to improve farm activities. Granting loans by cooperative banks is one of the basic tasks in their operations. Bank loans play an important role in changes taking place in agriculture. They generally do not violate the principles of market economy and financing rules, provided that the financial and credit policy takes into account the needs and limitations resulting from the current and forecast economic situation of farms.

Empirical evolution of credit risk over a decade in IBEX. 35 companies and its relationship with the qualification of its ratings

Object: The present work responds to two objectives. On the one hand, it describes the evolution of the main economic-financial indicators that influence credit risk (insolvency) for a sample of 10 Spanish companies listed on the IBEX 35. This analysis is studied for a comparative period of 10 years, which coincides with a pre-crisis stage (2002-2005) and an economic post-crisis phase (2012-2015). On the other hand, it corroborates the relationship between the analysed insolvency and the rating or credit-risk rating published for these companies by an internationally recognized credit rating agency, Standard & Poor's (S & P).Design / methodology: A sample of 10 companies and a 10-year period including the years 2002-2005 (pre-crisis) and the years 2012-2015 (post-crisis) are chosen, omitting the Spanish economic crisis that occurred in the year 2008. For the study of its evolution, 6 ratios obtained from the scientific literature that relate to credit risk and its effects on investments and company results are calculated. Finally, the correlations of these variables with the ratings of credit risk assessment by the rating agency S & P are measured. Descriptive statistics will assign value and graphics to this ten-year evolution, and with the incorporation of a factorial analysis, the correlation between the ratios and the S & P rating will be determined. The statistical analysis explains this correlation to a greater extent.Contributions / results: The results show a clear increase in the value of the impairment variable due to credit risk ten years later that directly affects the results of the companies, despite these companies having significantly reduced their investments in commercial loans pending collection and drastically reduced the period means of collection of clients. In turn, there is a clear correlation between the insolvency studied and the variables used by the S & P rating agency for the assessment of credit risk.Added value / conclusions: The empirical study concludes that there is a correspondence between insolvency and the rating given by an internationally prestigious rating agency (S & P) for the sample of 10 companies studied. Three variables – customer balance-accounts receivable, investments and the net amount of turnover – are determining factors explaining this correlation, and these three variables are the same ones that decisively influence both the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period 10 years apart. The rating agencies weigh the insolvency variable in their analyses.

External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization

Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) is essential for low-income and emerging economies to sustainably finance their development needs and has received increasing attention in recent years. Studies have centered on structural factors such as the size and the structure of the economy, and the quality of institutions, notably to account for weaknesses in revenue administrations. Nevertheless, DRM can take time and carry political costs. Raising more financing through donors or private investors may be an easier and more politically palatable way for countries to meet spending needs. Using an impact assessment methodology and panel regressions over a sample of 72 developing countries, we found no evidence that access to bond markets or external commercial loans undermines the countries’ efforts to collect tax revenue. On the contrary, we found that access to markets has a positive impact on domestic revenue mobilization. Plausible explanations are that private financing must be repaid, and strong macroeconomic fundamentals are key for maintaining market access. We have also found that macroeconomic stability and the strength of institutions do matter for domestic revenue mobilization.

Modeling Recovery Rates of Small- and Medium-Sized Entities in the US

A sound statistical model for recovery rates is required for various applications in quantitative risk management, with the computation of capital requirements for loan portfolios as one important example. We compare different models for predicting the recovery rate on borrower level including linear and quantile regressions, decision trees, neural networks, and mixture regression models. We fit and apply these models on the worldwide largest loss and recovery data set for commercial loans provided by GCD, where we focus on small- and medium-sized entities in the US. Additionally, we include macroeconomic information via a predictive Crisis Indicator or Crisis Probability indicating whether economic downturn scenarios are expected within the time of resolution. The horserace is won by the mixture regression model which regresses the densities as well as the probabilities that an observation belongs to a certain component.