scholarly journals Modeling Recovery Rates of Small- and Medium-Sized Entities in the US

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 1856
Author(s):  
Aleksey Min ◽  
Matthias Scherer ◽  
Amelie Schischke ◽  
Rudi Zagst
Keyword(s):  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Mixture Regression ◽  
Macroeconomic Information ◽  
Loan Portfolios ◽  
The Us ◽  
Commercial Loans ◽  
Mixture Regression Model

A sound statistical model for recovery rates is required for various applications in quantitative risk management, with the computation of capital requirements for loan portfolios as one important example. We compare different models for predicting the recovery rate on borrower level including linear and quantile regressions, decision trees, neural networks, and mixture regression models. We fit and apply these models on the worldwide largest loss and recovery data set for commercial loans provided by GCD, where we focus on small- and medium-sized entities in the US. Additionally, we include macroeconomic information via a predictive Crisis Indicator or Crisis Probability indicating whether economic downturn scenarios are expected within the time of resolution. The horserace is won by the mixture regression model which regresses the densities as well as the probabilities that an observation belongs to a certain component.

Avenues to News and Diverse News Exposure Online: Comparing Direct Navigation, Social Media, News Aggregators, Search Queries, and Article Hyperlinks

2021 ◽  
pp. 194016122110091
Author(s):  
Magdalena Wojcieszak ◽  
Ericka Menchen-Trevino ◽  
Joao F. F. Goncalves ◽  
Brian Weeks
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Search Engines ◽  
Direct Access ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
News Sources ◽  
Internet Users ◽  
News Websites ◽  
The Us ◽  
Social Media Platforms

The online environment dramatically expands the number of ways people can encounter news but there remain questions of whether these abundant opportunities facilitate news exposure diversity. This project examines key questions regarding how internet users arrive at news and what kinds of news they encounter. We account for a multiplicity of avenues to news online, some of which have never been analyzed: (1) direct access to news websites, (2) social networks, (3) news aggregators, (4) search engines, (5) webmail, and (6) hyperlinks in news. We examine the extent to which each avenue promotes news exposure and also exposes users to news sources that are left leaning, right leaning, and centrist. When combined with information on individual political leanings, we show the extent of dissimilar, centrist, or congenial exposure resulting from each avenue. We rely on web browsing history records from 636 social media users in the US paired with survey self-reports, a unique data set that allows us to examine both aggregate and individual-level exposure. Visits to news websites account for about 2 percent of the total number of visits to URLs and are unevenly distributed among users. The most widespread ways of accessing news are search engines and social media platforms (and hyperlinks within news sites once people arrive at news). The two former avenues also increase dissimilar news exposure, compared to accessing news directly, yet direct news access drives the highest proportion of centrist exposure.

The Restructuring of the Automobile Industry in the USA

1992 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 833-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
R D Bingham ◽  
K K Sunmonu
Keyword(s):  
Automobile Industry ◽  
The Other ◽  
Cycle Phase ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Mature Phase ◽  
The Us ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Spatial Configurations ◽  
The Usa

In this paper, the changes in the US automobile industry which have occurred over the 1979–86 economic downturn and recovery are examined within the framework of Markusen's profit-cycle theory. When viewing the automobile indusltry as a whole, some of the findings support the profit-cycle theory and others do not. The theory is supported, however, within the context of two distinct automobile industries in the USA—one ‘Fordist’ and the other a Japanese ‘post-Fordist’ system. The Fordist system is entering the negative profit-cycle phase and the post-Fordist system is in the mature phase. The two systems have very different spatial configurations and are likely to have very different economic futures.

scholarly journals Turkey’s political crisis of the 1970s and the military coup on September 12, 1980

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 234-238
Author(s):  
Malika S. Tovsultanova ◽  
Rustam A. Tovsultanov ◽  
Lilia N. Galimova
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Coalition Governments ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Military ◽  
The City

In the 1970s, Turkey was in a state of political turbulence. Weak coalition governments changed frequently and could not bring order to the country. The city streets turned into an arena of battles for various armed radical groups of nationalist, communist, Islamist and separatist persuasions. For 9 years from 1971 to 1980, 10 governments changed in Turkey. The political crisis was accompanied by an economic downturn, expressed in hyperinflation and an increase in external debt. Chaos and anarchy caused discontent among Turkish financial circles and generals with the situation in the country and led to the idea of a military coup, already the third in the republican history of Turkey. The US State Department was extremely concerned about the situation in Turkey, hoping to find a reliable cover against further exports of communism and Islamism to the Middle East, approving the possibility of a coup. The coup was led by the chief of the General Staff K. Evren. Political events of the second half of the 1970s allow us to conclude that, despite the interest of the financial and military circles of the United States in it, the military coup on September 12, 1980 had mainly domestic political reasons.

scholarly journals Productivity in the US Housing Industry: Total Factor and Public Firms

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Puddicombe
Keyword(s):  
Primary Source ◽  
Basic Question ◽  
Wealth Accumulation ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Public Firms ◽  
The Us ◽  
Home Sales ◽  
Housing Industry

Productivity is widely recognized as one of the main contributors to increased economic and societal wellbeing. Unfortunately, productivity has been extremely difficult to operationalize in a repeatable context in the construction sector. The result is a lack of consensus on the basic question of whether there has been improvement or decline in the productivity of the sector. This study focuses on productivity in the housing industry. Productivity is especially important in this industry, as in addition to providing shelter, the housing market is the primary source of wealth accumulation in the US. An individual’s ability to enter this market will be a function of affordability which will be effected by the productivity of the industry. The combination of academic and societal impacts suggests that there is a need to address a fundamental question: what is the status of productivity in the housing industry. In order to address this question a data base was compiled from the 10-Ks of the largest, long lived, US companies in the single family housing industry. The result is a panel data set that consists of information on 11 firms over a 15-year period. These 11 firms were responsible for approximately 25% of all new home sales in any given year. The data set was analysed with random effects GLS time series regression. The results indicate that, at best, the housing industry has seen negligible total productivity growth.

scholarly journals Modelling semi-continuous data using mixture regression models with an application to cattle production yields

2011 ◽  
Vol 150 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-121 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. BELASCO ◽  
S. K. GHOSH
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Continuous Variable ◽  
Continuous Variables ◽  
Multivariate Models ◽  
Mixture Regression ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Mixture Regression Models ◽  
Mixture Regression Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Half

SUMMARYThe present paper develops a mixture regression model that allows for distributional flexibility in modelling the likelihood of a semi-continuous outcome that takes on zero value with positive probability while continuous on the positive half of the real line. A multivariate extension is also developed that builds on past multivariate models by systematically capturing the relationship between continuous and semi-continuous variables, while allowing for the semi-continuous variable to be characterized by a mixture model. The flexibility associated with this model provides potential applications in many production system studies. The empirical model is shown to provide a more accurate measure of mortality rates in cattle feedlots, both independently and within a system including other performance and health factors.

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