EU moves will not stop Turkey prospecting off Cyprus

Significance Mitsotakis has chosen Cyprus for his first trip abroad two weeks after the EU announced sanctions against Turkey over prospecting operations in disputed parts of the seabed off Cyprus, divided between Greeks and Turks since 1974. They include suspension of high-level diplomatic contact, some funding cuts and a halt to talks on regional flight regulation. Impacts The risk of a Turkish-Greek naval confrontation is growing. The new Greek government will take a harsher line than its predecessor. Israel and Greece will press for a trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline with US support.

Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.


Significance Greece's government and voters have delivered a punishing blow to euro-area policies. However, the underlying dilemmas remain unchanged: whether creditors will countenance debt relief, whether the Greek government can produce credible commitments on reform, and whether euro-area leaders can manage their domestic political constraints and divisions. Impacts Without European assistance, Greece faces a period of economic hardship as funds dry up to pay public-sector salaries and pensions. Without ECB liquidity injections to keep the banks operational, they will require recapitalisation. A bail-in of depositors is possible. Otherwise, a raft of bankruptcies is expected among businesses unable to acquire operational financing. The referendum result will encourage anti-austerity eurosceptics elsewhere in the EU.


Significance A series of scandals surrounding Prime Minister Andrej Babis, including the newly released Pandora Papers, threaten to undermine ANO’s popularity. A challenge may come from the centre-right SPOLU coalition, campaigning on a strong anti-Babis programme. The key question is which way undecided voters will finally lean. Impacts The Communists, who are currently teetering on the 5% electoral threshold, could eventually disappear from high-level politics. If ANO retains power, the government's European policy will focus on defending Babis’s interests before the EU. Either of the two opposition blocs would pursue a more constructive European policy if they won. Introduction of the euro is unlikely in the foreseeable future, as supporters of the common currency are significantly in the minority.


Significance Biden's strong support for transatlanticism and multilateralism augurs well for a more understanding and cooperative trading relationship with the EU and will bring an end to the persistent uncertainty associated with Donald Trump's presidency. Impacts US sanctions warnings against companies involved in building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will likely remain for some time. Biden's commitment to addressing climate change could enable Brussels and Washington to coordinate carbon border taxes. Member state divisions over China will prevent the EU from fully embracing Washington's tough position.


Significance Although the promise of Cuba's 'opening' has brought a rush of high-level US and European visits, change will be slow. Negotiations to restore diplomatic relations with Washington are still mired in rules for embassy personnel, while EU-Cuban talks on a cooperation agreement are advancing, but slowly. Within Cuban society, expectations that US-Cuban rapprochement will lead to domestic detente will exert pressure for gradual political and media liberalisation. Impacts Foreign policy successes have yet to translate into material benefits for the population. Paris Club talks, after a 14-year hiatus, are the strongest signal yet that Cuba is preparing a return to international finance. Long-announced monetary reform remains pending, while multiple exchange rates undermine the economy. Sources close to Cuba's Foreign Ministry suggest that Castro himself will travel to Brussels for the EU-CELAC meeting.


Significance The trip is one of several for Rousseff, who is looking to accelerate ongoing trade talks with the United States and the EU in order to provide a much-needed boost to the struggling Brazilian economy. Although trade will be the main topic of conversation, Rousseff and US President Barack Obama will mark the restart of high-level political dialogue on strategic issues such as climate change and defence ties. Impacts The warm welcome planned by the White House will mark a symbolic break from the cold relations prevailing since the NSA scandal. Despite recent progress on a trade facilitation agreement, Brasilia's reluctance to give up import tax income will present obstacles. Dialogue on technical issues will gain momentum, including exchange of technology, military information and travel visas.


Significance Confrontations between Russian and Turkish fighter jets along the Turkish-Syrian border -- which triggered strong expressions of support for Turkey from NATO and the EU -- have followed on swiftly after Russia's intervention in Syria's civil war. Russia's intervention threatens to set back Turkey's ambitions of eventually replacing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with a mainly Sunni Islamist regime, and jeopardise Turkey's very important economic and political relations with Russia. Impacts Erdogan will attempt to pursue an inflexible and uncompromising line towards Russia despite Turkey's need for good relations. There are now strong question marks over such Russo-Turkish projects as the TurkStream gas pipeline and possibly even a nuclear power plant. If (unlikely but not impossible) AKP loses the November elections, a new government would reverse Syria policy and revive Russian relations.


Significance Falling bond yields suggest some return of confidence after the government's legislation of further cuts and reforms, and the successful conclusion of the second review of Greece's third bailout. Greece has depended almost entirely on official concessionary financing since 2010. Impacts A modest economic recovery could take hold now that uncertainty over concluding the review has ended. Despite resentment towards the EU post-crisis, only 35% of Greeks in a recent Pew survey would leave the EU, while 58% would remain. The prolonged crisis will leave many Greeks disillusioned with all political parties, whether in government or opposition.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 679-691
Author(s):  
Magdalena Jażdżewska-Gutta ◽  
Monika Grottel ◽  
Dagmara Wach

Purpose This study aims to investigate the motives for and the benefits of authorized economic operator (AEO) certification in the supply chain. Also, whether there are significant differences in the perception of the AEO status as a necessity or privilege among cargo owners and service providers. Design/methodology/approach The research design includes an international survey of 159 AEO-certified companies from four European Union (EU) countries performing various roles in the supply chain. The data are analyzed using quantitative methods, including factor analysis and analysis of variance. Findings Based on factor analysis, the research reveals the motives for and benefits of AEO certification. This reveals significant differences between two distinct groups of supply chain participants, namely, cargo owners and service providers. Service providers are mainly driven by the need to gain or maintain their competitive advantage and treat AEO certification as a standard that is required by customers. Cargo owners are relatively more focused on the improvement of internal processes and treat AEO certification as a privilege that helps them achieve a high level of efficiency. Originality/value The study fills the existing literature gap as it focuses on the differences between two distinct groups (cargo owners and service providers) in terms of their perception of the AEO certification. As empirical research in this area is scarce, especially at the cross-country level, this study also significantly complements knowledge on AEO certification in the EU.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Forrester-Jones

Purpose Amongst other actions the Care Act 2014 emphasised the duties of local authorities (LA) to assess the needs of carers, as well as those they care for and to meet all eligible needs for support. This paper aims to report the findings of a study which explored the experiences of older carers of people with learning disabilities as they navigated LA assessment processes and personnel. Design/methodology/approach Using an explorative design, 21 older carers were interviewed about their experiences. Interview transcripts were qualitatively analysed. Findings Three main themes were identified, namely, needs assessments as ambitions, not outcomes; the effects of funding-cuts projected onto carers; and challenges with social care personnel. Originality/value The study findings attracted a high level of engagement with public awareness and mainstream news and social media. The LA also immediately responded with interventions to address some of the findings, including carer “drop-in” sessions. They are also adapting their carer’s needs assessment processes as a result of the study. It is hoped that the issues raised will be of interest to other social care providers and practitioners.


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