The Politics of Secret Interventions

This chapter constitutes the theoretical core of the book. It begins by introducing existing explanations for why decision makers choose covert action or overt alternatives when pursuing regime change. These include the desire to control escalation dynamics, circumvent domestic political constraints, and avoid stirring up nationalist sentiment in the target state. Having laid out these alternatives, the chapter advances the book’s central claim that leaders are more likely to pursue regime change overtly when they can find a legal exemption to the nonintervention principle. Otherwise, they will choose covert action. The mechanisms underlying this claim are decision makers’ interest in protecting their credibility and avoiding hypocrisy costs by refraining from brazenly violating other states’ sovereignty. The United States is especially susceptible to these considerations given its long-standing interest in projecting an image of strategic restraint and legitimate leadership. The chapter concludes by taking up lingering questions, describing case selection and methodology, and outlining observable implications.

The Role of Side Payments in the Formation of Asymmetric Alliances: Forging the US–Pakistan Alliance

The article builds on James Morrow’s theoretical formulation on asymmetric alliances, which contends that alliances are formed as a result of a security–autonomy trade-off between great powers and minor powers. It expands Morrow’s theory by showing that in the absence of a common threat or shared interests, the trade-off tends to leave a deficit in a weaker state’s net benefits from the alliance. I argue that side payments fill in the deficit in gains for weaker states. The article highlights the importance of domestic political constraints in shaping leaders’ alliance policies. I use the US–Pakistan alliance as a case study to probe the argument. The analysis presented here shows that the alliance, formed in 1954, was a result of a strategic trade-off between the United States and Pakistan. The case provides support to the argument that side payments played a crucial role in cementing the alliance.

A neoclassical realist explanation of Indonesia’s involvement in Muslim-related secessions in non-Muslim countries

This article attempts to test the ethnic ties theory and provides an alternative explanation for why Indonesia as the largest Muslim country in the world has been inconsistent in its support for Muslim separatists. In this article, I use a Mill’s method of most similar system design and examine variation in Indonesia’s foreign policy towards Muslim secessionism taking place in non-Muslim countries over time. Since Indonesia’s independence in 1945, it has frequently supported the non-Muslim host states, has supported the Muslim separatists on some occasions, and has either adopted an ambivalent foreign policy/supported both the host states and separatist groups or adopted a neutral stance/neither supported the host states nor the separatist groups on other occasions. I suggest a neoclassical realist explanation and argue that specific foreign policy outcomes in the context of Muslim separatists versus non-Muslim host states are shaped by the perception of leading policy makers on the extent to which support for the conflicting parties in the secessionist conflicts can hinder or facilitate the achievement of vital national interests and ultimately the state’s international as well as the level of domestic political constraints specifically the public demand to assist the separatist movements.

China's Export Restrictions and the Limits of WTO Law

In recent years, China has enacted export restrictions on a range of minerals and other raw materials. They include export quotas, export duties, export licenses, and other administrative actions. Although such export restrictions have already been found to be inconsistent with China's WTO obligations, the practice persists. This article advances an explanation for why this is the case. It argues that the problem lies with the lack of retrospective remedies in WTO dispute settlement. Consequently, China is able to breach its WTO obligations temporarily with minimal consequence. Although such restrictions may have negative consequences for upstream extraction firms, China is able to implement the restrictions because several upstream firms are state-owned enterprises. As a result, China is able to utilize export restrictions on minerals and other raw materials effectively to foster the development of strategic emerging industries downstream. Given existing negotiating standoffs and domestic political constraints, this article suggests that it is unlikely that any potential WTO legal reforms will be enacted any time soon to address this problem.

Greece to seek end of austerity, not euro membership

Significance Greece's government and voters have delivered a punishing blow to euro-area policies. However, the underlying dilemmas remain unchanged: whether creditors will countenance debt relief, whether the Greek government can produce credible commitments on reform, and whether euro-area leaders can manage their domestic political constraints and divisions. Impacts Without European assistance, Greece faces a period of economic hardship as funds dry up to pay public-sector salaries and pensions. Without ECB liquidity injections to keep the banks operational, they will require recapitalisation. A bail-in of depositors is possible. Otherwise, a raft of bankruptcies is expected among businesses unable to acquire operational financing. The referendum result will encourage anti-austerity eurosceptics elsewhere in the EU.

Assessing Britain’s Role in Afghanistan

This article assesses Britain's contemporary relationship with Afghanistan, its goals and interests there, and its possible post-2014 role. It is argued that Britain might continue to play a limited but non-negligible military, intelligence, fiscal, and diplomatic role, even as British policymakers are increasingly bound by fiscal and domestic political constraints.

‘Great Power Style’ in China’s Economic Diplomacy: Filling the Shoes of a Benign Hegemon?

China’s ascendance attracts concern, even though Beijing claims to be a responsible great power and tries to demonstrate its ‘great power style’ in economic diplomacy. This article therefore discusses the following questions: to what extent does the current notion and practice of Chinese ‘great power style’ in economic diplomacy comply with, or differ from, the criteria of benign hegemony; and what are the major constraining factors? Conceptually, China’s ‘great power style’ is rooted in ancient Chinese political philosophy and institution, but it highly resembles the Western notion of benign hegemony. Empirically, China has started to provide more public goods in trade, finance and aid, and it seeks voting powers at international institutions. However, it is still far from being a benign hegemon because of its level of development, domestic political constraints, and tension between political and economic interests.