EU-US trade relations will improve but not flourish

Significance Biden's strong support for transatlanticism and multilateralism augurs well for a more understanding and cooperative trading relationship with the EU and will bring an end to the persistent uncertainty associated with Donald Trump's presidency. Impacts US sanctions warnings against companies involved in building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will likely remain for some time. Biden's commitment to addressing climate change could enable Brussels and Washington to coordinate carbon border taxes. Member state divisions over China will prevent the EU from fully embracing Washington's tough position.

Significance Having tabled a relatively ambitious offer for COP21, the EU is seeking to recover its leading role in tackling climate change at the global level. Impacts The undemanding circumstances in which the EU achieved its 2020 targets will limit the political capital it might generate from doing so. The COP21 deal will shape France's international standing, in a field other than France's traditional military and security activities. If Poland obstructs strong EU post-COP21 climate change policies, it will further aggravate internal East-West relations. Energy policy could be contentious as early as the December 17 summit, as the EU takes first stock of COP21 while considering Nord Stream 2.


Significance The two sides have suspended tariffs arising from their dispute over subsidies to Airbus and Boeing, are working on an international deal on corporate taxation and have established a high-level council to discuss issues at the nexus of security, technology and trade. Impacts A major aim of closer transatlantic cooperation is better coordination of policies with respect to China. Closer transatlantic cooperation over China might soften US opposition to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. It will be difficult for the US government to pass legislation concerning trade given the Democrats' precarious majority in both houses.


Significance A significant rise in Afghan refugees is unlikely over the coming weeks due to geographical barriers, but European governments are bracing themselves for a significant rise over the coming months. Greek Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi says the EU is not prepared for another migration crisis. Impacts With upcoming elections, Germany and France will be wary of taking in large numbers of refugees. Division over immigration could damage EU cooperation in other areas, such as climate change or fiscal policy. The strongest opposition to migration burden-sharing is likely to come from Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Krzyżanowski

This article analyses European Union policy discourses on climate change from the point of view of constructions of identity. Articulated in a variety of policy-related genres, the EU rhetoric on climate change is approached as example of the Union’s international discourse, which, contrary to other areas of EU policy-making, relies strongly on discursive frameworks of international and global politics of climate change. As the article shows, the EU’s peculiar international – or even global – leadership in tackling the climate change is constructed in an ambivalent and highly heterogeneous discourse that runs along several vectors. While it on the one hand follows the more recent, inward-looking constructions of Europe known from the EU policy and political discourses of the 1990s and 2000s, it also revives some of the older discursive logics of international competition known from the earlier stages of the European integration. In the analysis, the article draws on the methodological apparatus of the Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA) in Critical Discourse Studies. Furthering the DHA studies of EU policy and political discourses, the article emphasises the viability of the discourse-historical methodology applied in the combined analysis of EU identity and policy discourses.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-197
Author(s):  
Petr Kratochvíl ◽  
Tomáš Doležal

The article explores the so far largely ignored question of the political relations between the European Union and the Roman Catholic Church. It analyzes the deeper mutual ideational influences of the two entities, asking whether there has been a convergence of views about several basic political notions between the Church and the EU. The analysis centres on the Church’s approach to four fundamental notions related to the EU – (1) secularism, (2) the individual(ism), (3) free market, and (4) the state, stressing in particular the discursive strategies the Church employs to defend its own position. The conclusion focuses on the relation between the RCC’s “theopolitical” imagination and the EU’s political form and argues that the surprisingly strong support of the Church for the integration process is not only a result of the aggiornamento, but a peculiar example of the Church’s ongoing Europeanization. Methodologically, the paper builds on a discourse analysis of almost 160 documents released by the three key Church bodies which often comment on the EU: the Commission of the Bishops’ Conferences of the European Community, the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences, and the Curia.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Subject Structural challenges to EU foreign policy. Significance The EU lacks a consolidated foreign policy: member states play a predominant role in external affairs. However, given such domestic challenges as political fragmentation, adverse demographic change and rising populism, national foreign policy faces a future of more volatility and uncertainty. This could increase the need to bolster the EU’s foreign policy powers. Impacts Positions on Russian sanctions and the Iran nuclear deal show the Council able to form a consensus on some important external issues. Germany and France will push for changed EU competition rules to allow ‘national champions’ to emerge against Chinese and US competitors. Regional neighbours in Northern and Southern Europe may deepen inter-governmentalism and cooperation, respectively. The EU could become a global trendsetter in climate change, especially if Germany and Poland agree to carbon neutrality by 2050.


Subject Germany's EU presidency. Significance Germany will assume the six-month EU rotating presidency on July 1. The presidency will give Berlin greater influence in setting the European Council’s agenda and finding compromise between member states. Its standout priority will be to foster a compromise agreement on the EU’s recovery plan and 2021-27 budget. Impacts Any conditionality or ‘structural’ reforms associated with the EU recovery plan will be negatively received in Italy. To keep relations with China stable, Germany will focus on cooperation on mutual interests, such as COVID-19 and climate change. Germany could remain committed to fiscal expansion beyond the pandemic if the Greens are in the next government in 2021.


Significance Mitsotakis has chosen Cyprus for his first trip abroad two weeks after the EU announced sanctions against Turkey over prospecting operations in disputed parts of the seabed off Cyprus, divided between Greeks and Turks since 1974. They include suspension of high-level diplomatic contact, some funding cuts and a halt to talks on regional flight regulation. Impacts The risk of a Turkish-Greek naval confrontation is growing. The new Greek government will take a harsher line than its predecessor. Israel and Greece will press for a trans-Mediterranean gas pipeline with US support.


Subject Austrian intra-government relations. Significance Austria’s ruling coalition enjoys strong and stable support for its stance on immigration and tax reduction and its support for greater member-state autonomy within the EU. However, controversial immigration proposals from the Austrian Freedom Party (FPOe), the far-right junior partner in the coalition, have provoked a backlash from Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party (OeVP). He is now under pressure to crack down on some FPOe officials because of apparent indirect links to the Christchurch mosque killer. Impacts Austria’s relationship with Israel will remain uneasy, as Israel associates the FPOe with anti-Semitism. Austria is highly unlikely to join the UN migration pact while the FPOe is in government. Foreign intelligence agencies will be reluctant to share information with Austria as the FPOe controls the defence and interior ministries.


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