Afghanistan risks becoming a 'failed state'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Failed State ◽  
National Unity ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Security ◽  
Central Asian

Subject Outlook for the Afghan state. Significance The steady decline of Afghanistan's security situation and economy, and the paralysis of the National Unity Government led by President Ashraf Ghani, have brought into sharp relief the negligible returns of the heavy financial, military and political capital expended on the country by NATO allies, especially the United States, since 2001. With NATO's drawdown now in its final years, Afghanistan faces dire prospects. Impacts Central Asian security will suffer as Taliban insurgents expand in the north. However, a strong Taliban will also contain the Islamic State group's footprint in Afghanistan. Pakistan will prioritise its own national interests regarding Afghanistan, mainly to pressure India.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Differing aims limit Russia's tactical Taliban ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
External Powers

Subject Russia's engagement with the Taliban. Significance Russia is seeking to strengthen its influence in Afghanistan as a power vacuum emerges from gradual US disengagement, and is negotiating with Pakistan and the Taliban. As well as engaging with the Kabul government, Russian officials are providing the Taliban with financial and military aid in hope the militants will contain the rise of other threats: Islamic State (IS) and Central Asian jihadists in Afghanistan. Impacts Backing a militant jihadist group at war with the United States conflicts with Russia's counter-terrorism stance elsewhere. Russian funding simply replicates old patterns where external powers 'rent' local armed groups. The Russian factor may intensify strife within the Taliban, undermining unity.

Washington will engage more with South-east Asia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Set Up

Significance She addressed two key issues during her trip: tensions in post-coup Myanmar and China’s growing regional footprint. Shortly after she left the region, the United States announced that it would donate unused COVID-19 vaccines abroad, including to South-east Asia. Impacts Washington will tighten its sanctions on the Myanmar military while supporting ASEAN’s five-point plan to ease the country’s crisis. The National Unity Government, a parallel administration to Myanmar’s junta set up by its opponents, will try to attract greater US backing. Manila and Washington may extend negotiations over renewing their Visiting Forces Agreement to prevent the pact expiring in August.

Sectarianism will weaken Iraqi state

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Significance Sectarian tensions in Iraq were exacerbated when the radical Sunni Islamic State group (ISG) seized Mosul in 2014 and Iraq's Shia militias were mobilised to fill the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi army. Impacts Sectarian tensions will prolong political paralysis and, therefore, undermine efforts to reform the politics and economy of the country. Iran will extend its influence over Baghdad, at the expense of the United States. Political paralysis and weaker US ties would deepen Iraq's fiscal crisis.

Prospects for Mexico and Central America to end-2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Central America ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Business As Usual

Subject Prospects for Mexico and Central America to end-2017. Significance The economies of Mexico and Central America will maintain a ‘business as usual’ stance until renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) formally starts later in the year. Growth momentum in the region is therefore likely to be maintained for the rest of 2017. Nonetheless, threats to trade and migration links with the United States, and to remittance income, will drive uncertainty.

Canada will struggle to diversify trade

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Government Procurement ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic News ◽  
American Trade

Significance US efforts to renegotiate NAFTA were already tense, but this round of talks comes after Canada filed a wide-ranging complaint at the WTO over US trade practices. Meanwhile, the implementation of the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) and the revival of an eleven-member version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) without the United States could bring some good economic news to Canada. However, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been rebuffed in their efforts to begin free trade agreement (FTA) talks with China. Impacts Canada’s WTO case could make Trump more likely to leave NAFTA after this negotiation round. Resumed WTO tariffs in North American trade may see higher lumber, minerals, oil and other commodities prices. Bureaucratic interventions defending national interests in Canadian and EU government procurement will blunt CETA’s potential.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

US aims to check Russia in Central Asia 'Great Game'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Public Criticism

Subject US relations with Central Asia. Significance US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Central Asia in early November, in an effort to boost Washington's influence in a region that is increasingly dominated by Russia and also China. Central Asian states worry that the region has declined in importance for the United States, owing to Washington's overall drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Impacts Over-reliance on remittances will pose major risk to Central Asian economies. Central Asian states will continue to try and extract concessions from United States, Russia and China. Washington will diminish its public criticism of human rights abuses in Central Asia but maintain pressure in private.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

Arab gripes pose challenges for Syrian Kurds’ control

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Power Dynamic ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Underlying Causes

Subject Kurdish-Arab tensions in north-east Syria Significance Significant protests between April and June by Arab tribes in north-eastern Syria against Kurdish governance have subsided in north-eastern Syria after Saudi Arabia intervened to encourage de-escalation. However, the underlying causes, including grievances over economic distribution, heavy-handed security methods and a lack of Arab representation in decision-making, have not been resolved. Impacts A deterioration in cooperation between Arab tribes and the SDF may facilitate the operations of IS sleeper cells. The United States and partners will look for further ways to alleviate the concerns of Arab tribes in the area. Ankara and Damascus, which both have designs on the north-east, will play up protests to justify intervention. A mooted Turkish invasion of the border area could radically shift the power dynamic in the region.

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