Sectarianism will weaken Iraqi state

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Significance Sectarian tensions in Iraq were exacerbated when the radical Sunni Islamic State group (ISG) seized Mosul in 2014 and Iraq's Shia militias were mobilised to fill the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi army. Impacts Sectarian tensions will prolong political paralysis and, therefore, undermine efforts to reform the politics and economy of the country. Iran will extend its influence over Baghdad, at the expense of the United States. Political paralysis and weaker US ties would deepen Iraq's fiscal crisis.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.

US-Gulf security alliance will weaken, but endure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Pivot To Asia ◽  
State Group ◽  
Security Alliance

Significance His priorities include reducing their opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran, securing greater Gulf commitment to the fight against Islamic State group (ISG), and ending the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen. Gulf capitals have interpreted Obama's 'pivot to Asia' and engagement with Iran as implying tacit US abandonment of their interests. At the same time, underlying economic and political shifts in the United States raise the question of whether future US presidents will be as committed to the Gulf alliance. Impacts Hillary Clinton would likely continue the multilateral focus of US policy toward the GCC were she elected president. New areas of US-Gulf convergence may arise, including meeting Asian energy needs, and protecting international sea lanes and chokepoints. A future US administration may not be as willing to sell more arms to Riyadh if it is not seen as effective in handling a crisis.

Fiscal crisis will raise political risks in Iraq

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Risks ◽  
War Effort ◽  
State Group ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance The political establishment has given strong backing to the budget cuts ordered by Abadi. The 2016 budget has been amended to account for the collapse of Iraq's planned 2016 euro-bond issue and spending cuts. However, even its amended final version has significant weaknesses. Impacts Petrodollar allocations to oil-producing provinces will be cut. Non-oil investment spending in Iraq will be almost entirely curtailed. The fiscal crisis will not directly affect the war effort against Islamic State group. Political pressure and protests may grow against the Abadi government.

Syria civil war will lead to 'soft' partition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Mass ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ethnic Cleansing ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
External Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Partition Process ◽  
Soft Partition

Significance As the United States, Russia and other international powers attempt to broker a resolution to Syria's war, federalism or partition have been mooted repeatedly as a solution to the intractable conflict. Yet a critical mass of Syrian actors reject any sort of political decentralisation, and are instead committed to fighting for total victory over all of Syria. Impacts The de facto partition process under way is likely to see further sectarian and ethnic cleansing. Regime areas in the west will be the most viable economically, while Kurdish and Islamic State group areas in the east will be poorer. The new sub-state areas will be highly vulnerable to external influence and regional geopolitics. As a result, the risk of Syria sparking a wider regional crisis will remain high.

Philippines martial law likely to be extended

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Habeas Corpus ◽  
Martial Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military

Significance Proclamation 216 was made after Islamic State (IS)-linked Maute group militants attacked and occupied Marawi City on May 23. The president also suspended habeas corpus in Mindanao on May 24. Impacts Extending martial law in Mindanao would likely see further communist guerrilla attacks. Philippine security links with Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and the United States will deepen. Appeals against the Supreme Court's decision could be lodged but are unlikely to work. The military will gain increased political influence through martial law.

Turkish zone will push back 'Islamic State' in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us

Significance Turkey carried out its first airstrikes inside Syria on July 24, almost a year after the start of the US-led campaign against ISG. However, critics claim that Turkey is simply joining the anti-ISG operations as a pretext to prevent Kurdish militants in Syria from seizing new territory along the border. Ankara has said it plans to establish a security belt controlled by Syrian Arab rebel units in territory on the Syrian side of the Turkish border currently held by ISG. Impacts Expansion of the anti-ISG campaign to al-Bab and Manbij would see new refugee influxes into Turkey. Setbacks in Aleppo would reinforce ISG's drive to expand into Homs province. ISG will be tempted to carry out retaliatory attacks against the Turkish authorities and economy. Damascus will avoid direct military confrontation with Turkey and the United States in northern Syria. Syrian rebels, particularly the more moderate factions, will benefit from the weakening of ISG.

Afghanistan risks becoming a 'failed state'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Failed State ◽  
National Unity ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Asian Security ◽  
Central Asian

Subject Outlook for the Afghan state. Significance The steady decline of Afghanistan's security situation and economy, and the paralysis of the National Unity Government led by President Ashraf Ghani, have brought into sharp relief the negligible returns of the heavy financial, military and political capital expended on the country by NATO allies, especially the United States, since 2001. With NATO's drawdown now in its final years, Afghanistan faces dire prospects. Impacts Central Asian security will suffer as Taliban insurgents expand in the north. However, a strong Taliban will also contain the Islamic State group's footprint in Afghanistan. Pakistan will prioritise its own national interests regarding Afghanistan, mainly to pressure India.

US-Iran fight in Iraq may see new strikes and election

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reception Area

Significance The United States on December 29 launched airstrikes on five bases maintained by Iran-backed militia Kata’ib Hezbollah, in retaliation for a December 28 rocket attack that killed one US citizen in Kirkuk. After the funerals of some of the 25 fighters who died in the strikes, allied groups marched on the embassy, starting fires and entering a reception area. Washington and Tehran exchanged accusations. Impacts Washington will impose new sanctions on Iran-backed politicians in early 2020. Non-Iran-aligned candidates for prime minister will face an even higher bar to nomination. Anti-US sentiment could rise further, and US embassy operations will see periodic closures. Washington-Tehran tensions will disrupt operations against Islamic State (IS).

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