United States will pursue modest goals in Syria

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance In September 2014, the United States and coalition partners began an air campaign against Islamic State group (ISG) in Syria following its seizure of large swathes of northern and western Iraq. While these developments have not changed overall US policy in Syria -- to encourage a negotiated political settlement between regime and opposition -- they have seen Washington's focus move away from the civil war and onto counter-terrorism and containing ISG in Iraq. Impacts Islamist rebels backed by Gulf states and Turkey will dominate the insurgency and influence any post-Assad government. Efforts to destroy ISG in Iraq are unlikely to succeed so long as it retains a safe haven in Syria. US air support will help Kurds establish contiguous zone of control in northern Syria, prompting Ankara to respond. Without access to game-changing US weapons, Syrian rebels will not have the firepower needed to defeat the regime. The regime will withdraw steadily from outlying areas and consolidate its control on Damascus, the Homs-Hama corridor and western Syria.

Syria action risks growing terrorism threat in Russia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Terrorism risks to Russia. Significance The Islamic State group (ISG) called for jihad against Russia and the United States on October 13. ISG regards Moscow and Washington as fighting a 'crusader war' against Muslims. Concern in Russia is growing that President Vladimir Putin's Syrian intervention will increase the terrorism threat inside the country. Impacts Exodus of radicals to fight with ISG has improved the security situation in the North Caucasus but many may seek to return to attack Russia. Chechen leader Kadyrov's power will grow if North Caucasus terrorism increases, as Moscow will need him to help restore order. Russia will push for closer security cooperation with Western agencies, the Kremlin using the threat as an argument for defending Damascus.

Sectarianism will weaken Iraqi state

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Fiscal Crisis ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Significance Sectarian tensions in Iraq were exacerbated when the radical Sunni Islamic State group (ISG) seized Mosul in 2014 and Iraq's Shia militias were mobilised to fill the security vacuum left by the collapse of the Iraqi army. Impacts Sectarian tensions will prolong political paralysis and, therefore, undermine efforts to reform the politics and economy of the country. Iran will extend its influence over Baghdad, at the expense of the United States. Political paralysis and weaker US ties would deepen Iraq's fiscal crisis.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

US-Gulf security alliance will weaken, but endure

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Pivot To Asia ◽  
State Group ◽  
Security Alliance

Significance His priorities include reducing their opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran, securing greater Gulf commitment to the fight against Islamic State group (ISG), and ending the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen. Gulf capitals have interpreted Obama's 'pivot to Asia' and engagement with Iran as implying tacit US abandonment of their interests. At the same time, underlying economic and political shifts in the United States raise the question of whether future US presidents will be as committed to the Gulf alliance. Impacts Hillary Clinton would likely continue the multilateral focus of US policy toward the GCC were she elected president. New areas of US-Gulf convergence may arise, including meeting Asian energy needs, and protecting international sea lanes and chokepoints. A future US administration may not be as willing to sell more arms to Riyadh if it is not seen as effective in handling a crisis.

Sectarianism raises jihadist blowback threat in Gulf

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lone Wolf ◽  
Us Military ◽  
The Us ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Security Relationship ◽  
State Group

Subject 'Islamic State' blowback risk in Gulf Significance A recent spate of attacks in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suggest that the threat posed to them by the Islamic State group (ISG) arises primarily from 'lone wolf' operations. However, the GCC states face a deeper challenge both internally from networks of ISG cells, and externally from the flow of Gulf nationals to ISG battlefronts in Iraq and Syria. With the Gulf states leading the region in partnering with the United States in the air campaign against ISG, officials must balance this close security relationship with the threat of backlash from domestic supporters of ISG. Impacts GCC states will seek to avoid being drawn directly into any military escalation against ISG in Iraq and Syria. Instead, they will rely on the US military to take the lead, underlining their reliance on Washington as an external security guarantor. GCC states will become increasingly critical of the US air campaign if it fails to roll back ISG gains. Gulf authorities are using the extremist threat to delegitimise and ban most forms of political and popular dissent. Greater security cooperation with Jordan will solidify the kingdom's incorporation into a GCC sphere of regional influence.

Differing aims limit Russia's tactical Taliban ties

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Aid ◽  
Counter Terrorism ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
External Powers

Subject Russia's engagement with the Taliban. Significance Russia is seeking to strengthen its influence in Afghanistan as a power vacuum emerges from gradual US disengagement, and is negotiating with Pakistan and the Taliban. As well as engaging with the Kabul government, Russian officials are providing the Taliban with financial and military aid in hope the militants will contain the rise of other threats: Islamic State (IS) and Central Asian jihadists in Afghanistan. Impacts Backing a militant jihadist group at war with the United States conflicts with Russia's counter-terrorism stance elsewhere. Russian funding simply replicates old patterns where external powers 'rent' local armed groups. The Russian factor may intensify strife within the Taliban, undermining unity.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

Gulf rivals will likely increase US lobbying efforts

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
The United States ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Influence ◽  
Gulf States

Subject Gulf states lobbying in the United States. Significance The Gulf states have long been among the largest spenders on lobbying initiatives in the United States, promoting their economic interests and perspectives on regional geopolitics. This has intensified since 2017 as the Qatar dispute has polarised the region and both sides have sought to win over crucial US decision-makers. These efforts have often backfired and drawn accusations of improper behaviour that could damage bilateral relationships and may affect US domestic politics. Impacts Others considering influencing US policy will look carefully at the successes but also the controversies this lobbying has generated. There is a risk of long-term damage to some Gulf-US relationships amid growing suspicion of foreign influence. Robert Mueller’s probe into the Trump campaign and Russia, which may conclude this year, may also implicate some Gulf states.

Israel will strengthen its ties with the Gulf

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Middle East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Public Knowledge ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Opportunities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Middle East Policy

Significance In October, Netanyahu travelled to Oman -- the first visit there by an Israeli premier in decades. In the past few years, relations between Israel and most of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states have warmed, but this has not been publicised. More recently, GCC states have become less concerned whether their relations with Israel become public knowledge. Meanwhile, the United States is encouraging rapprochement as one of the anchors of its Middle East policy. Impacts Netanyahu may soon visit Bahrain, the first public visit by an Israeli leader to the country. Relations with Qatar will follow a separate track to other Gulf states. A political opening would create economic opportunities.

US policy in Libya will quietly counteract Egypt, UAE

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports

Subject US policy towards Libya. Significance Since the killing of US Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi in September 2012, the United States has detached itself from Libya, but, as the country moves towards civil war, Washington is considering various forms of re-engagement. More muscular US policy in Libya would increase prospects for stability. Impacts Most foreign businesses will be able to re-enter the country in the next two years if a unity government is agreed. This will be most feasible in isolated 'pockets of stability' around energy facilities, key cities, and potentially demilitarised zones. Oil exports are unlikely to rebound significantly beyond 800,000 barrels per day.

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