Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Right-wing terrorism could rise in the West

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Proportion ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Global Effect ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Decline ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
State Group

Subject The outlook for terrorism. Significance Terrorist activity has been increasing in recent years. The rise of the Islamic State group (ISG) has reinvigorated jihadism and inspired attacks in the West. Jihadist attacks there make a disproportionately small proportion of terrorist attacks worldwide, yet these might be the ones with the greatest global effect. Impacts ISG's loss of territory and financial sources may only result in a slow decline of global terrorism. Much will depend on governance build-up in Iraq. Additional counterterrorism funding and new laws strengthening existing measures will continue apace. Knee-jerk and over-reactive measures focusing too heavily on the symptoms of terrorism are unlikely to produce sustainable progress.

Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Military Support ◽  
State Group

Significance Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily. Impacts Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation. Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria. Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East. ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience. Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.

ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

Syria civil war will lead to 'soft' partition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Mass ◽  
The United States ◽  
Ethnic Cleansing ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
External Influence ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Partition Process ◽  
Soft Partition

Significance As the United States, Russia and other international powers attempt to broker a resolution to Syria's war, federalism or partition have been mooted repeatedly as a solution to the intractable conflict. Yet a critical mass of Syrian actors reject any sort of political decentralisation, and are instead committed to fighting for total victory over all of Syria. Impacts The de facto partition process under way is likely to see further sectarian and ethnic cleansing. Regime areas in the west will be the most viable economically, while Kurdish and Islamic State group areas in the east will be poorer. The new sub-state areas will be highly vulnerable to external influence and regional geopolitics. As a result, the risk of Syria sparking a wider regional crisis will remain high.

Islamic State threat looms over security in Indonesia

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Religious Networks ◽  
State Position ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State threat. Significance Over the last year, Islamic State group (ISG) has expanded its presence in Indonesia. The government estimates that at least 56 Indonesians joined ISG in Iraq and Syria in mid-2014 -- a figure that may have reached 500 by end-2014. Of these, at least 200 are estimated to have returned, with some believed to be planning attacks in Indonesia. Despite the somewhat equivocal stance of national and local authorities on secularism, the threat posed by ISG to security is taken seriously. Impacts Social media and legitimate religious networks are the top two avenues for ISG recruitment in Indonesia and the broader region. Financial institutions, state buildings and tourist destinations are likely targets for terrorist attacks. Inter-regional intelligence cooperation on tackling ISG networks is likely to intensify. South-east Asian countries will seek greater US counterterrorism support. Civil society calls for a clearer state position on secularism will intensify, but they may go unheeded.

Global counterterrorism focus will weaken free speech

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Rights ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Internet Freedom ◽  
Intermediary Liability ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Western Democracies

Subject The impact of the global focus on counterterrorism on free speech. Significance Calls for restrictions on online extremism and hate speech have risen amid the expansion of the so-called Islamic State group (ISG) and its use of online recruitment strategies. The terrorism threat has led to proposals to expand surveillance powers in several Western democracies, which are then used as justification to restrict civil rights in more restrictive countries. Impacts Proposals for private sector liability for online expression could erode global norms on free speech and internet freedom. It could also negatively affect businesses in countries where protections against intermediary liability have typically been strong. Venues online for anonymous speech are likely to become more limited amid the backlash against online extremism and terrorist attacks.

Islamic State group has reinvigorated global jihadism

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
The Us ◽  
State Group ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The past year witnessed further jihadi gains amid the political turmoil in the Middle East that has followed the Arab uprisings -- most significantly the Islamic State Group (ISG)'s conquest of Sunni provinces Iraq in June and proclamation of a caliphate. However, the advance is not even across the board; the threat remains centred on regional targets, more than those in the West. More spillover from a metastasising jihadism in the Middle East is to be expected, including sporadic high-profile attacks in the West. Impacts The international reputation of Syria's Assad regime will gradually improve as the West remains focused on the threat of the ISG. Authoritarian regimes will exploit the jihadist threat to justify internal security crackdowns and delay democratic reforms. US-Iranian collaboration against ISG will reinforce the perception of an anti-Sunni conspiracy -- a key feature of jihadi propaganda. The US shale oil revolution will continue to offset disruption to oil supplies by the ISG. Tourism in affected countries, particularly Egypt, will continue to suffer.

Russian strategy plan is both defensive and assertive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Security Strategy ◽  
Policy Statements ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russia's new national security strategy Significance A new National Security Strategy (NSS) signed off by President Vladimir Putin on December 30 covers a broad range of issues from Russia's place in a dangerous and "imbalanced" world to the economic challenges that the government must tackle. The document accuses the West of backing a "coup" in Ukraine in 2014 and pursuing policies that allowed the Islamic State group (ISG) to emerge. Impacts The characterisation of Western states as hostile will be mirrored in harsher wording in their policy statements on Russia. In an election year, there will be little emphasis on democratic values. Regional and ethnic interests will be subsumed in a 'unitary Russia' narrative.

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