Prospects for Syria and Iraq in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Political Backlash

Subject Prospects for Syria and Iraq in 2016. Significance Russia's direct military intervention in Syria and terrorist attacks by the Islamic State group (ISG) against Russian and French targets have sparked unprecedented diplomatic activity around the Syrian conflict, suggesting that a political solution could see the light in 2016. In Iraq, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's leadership faces a 'make-or-break' year as he seeks to handle the campaign against ISG, an economic crisis, and a political backlash against his reform programme.

Iraq's Abadi may consolidate power in reform battle

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Political ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
State Group ◽  
Government Reforms

Subject Government reforms. Significance Although some of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's reform programme is purely aspirational and unlikely to be implemented, the measures already taken constitute an unprecedented downsizing of Iraqi government in the post-2003 era. The reforms were well received initially by the political parties, partly due to support from the Shia clergy. However, increasingly, critical voices are making themselves heard, not least from hardliners within Abadi's own Shia coalition. Impacts Failure of Abadi's reform programme could increase political instability in Baghdad, harming efforts to defeat Islamic State group (ISG). Reforms may damage ties with Tehran, with Iran fearing that Abadi is using the process to develop stronger autonomy from it. If the reforms succeed, this may increase Sunni Arab confidence in Abadi as a potential buffer against pro-Iranian forces. Impact on government efficiency and the economy will be limited given other major challenges, notably low oil prices.

Rise of Shia militias will reshape Iraqi politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
National Guard ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Power Struggle ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group

Subject The rise of Iraq's Shia militias. Significance Shia militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Units (PMUs), are the most capable offensive forces at the federal government's disposal in its fight against Islamic State group (ISG). Yet Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's cabinet only exercises limited control over these forces, many of which receive backing from Iran. While Iraq's battle against ISG is progressing steadily, the emergence of these powerful Shia militias could represent a larger medium-term challenge to state stability. Impacts Shia militias will probably be less effective in Sunni-only areas. Iraq boasts insufficient offensive forces to attack Mosul in the first half of 2015. The National Guard initiative will take months to be ratified in parliament. Politics in the oil-rich south will be complicated by a power struggle between Shia politicians and militia leaders.

Turkey's Kurds will be angry if HDP is not re-elected

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Guerrilla Warfare ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
State Group ◽  
Religious Elements

Significance The process looks in danger. Serious local conflicts in south-eastern Turkey are straining tensions between Kurds and the government, even though guerrilla warfare has not resumed. Kurdish self-confidence is rising because of its fighters' success in expelling Islamic State group (ISG) from Kobani. However, dialogue between the government and imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan continues, and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu seems more sensitive to Kurdish aspirations than his predecessors. Impacts Ocalan's leadership of the PKK is unshakable, but his ability to persuade his followers to avoid clashes on the streets is weakening. The conflict between the Kurds and Islamists inside Turkey will grow. Public opinion, including conservative religious elements, will block significant concessions to the Kurds, limiting the government's scope. The Kurds are emerging as a key regional opponent of Islamist politics.

Syria may spur global rise in unilateral intervention

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Military Operations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Broad Interpretation ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Subject Syria and international norms of war. Significance The Syrian conflict has prompted intervention by a number of states, both directly and by proxy. The participation of all but one of the five UN Security Council permanent members (except China) in military operations in Syria raises questions over whether the norms of legal and ethical grounds for intervention have changed as a result of the conflict. Impacts Justifications will include broad interpretation of 'humanitarian intervention' to conceal real intentions. The UN will have less ability to assert itself when the leading powers choose to ignore, or interpret selectively, international standards. Collective international action against Islamic State group in Syria may build.

Social networks could counter lone-actor terrorism

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Free Speech ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Far Right ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
State Group

Subject Lone-actor terrorist motivations. Significance Recent lone-actor terrorist attacks in Orlando, Nice, Munich and elsewhere have made this threat salient for the public and policymakers alike. The number of lone-actor attacks has almost trebled since 1990 -- from a base rate of 5-6 per year, according to recent research. Yet the authorities find these types of attacks difficult to detect and disrupt ahead of time. Impacts Lone-actor attacks are likely to recur in the West while authorities struggle to respond. Islamic State group (ISG)-inspired lone-actor attacks may incentivise far-right lone actors to respond violently and vice-versa. The rise of encrypted messaging services and the dark net will fuel the debate around policing this problem without curbing free speech.

Saudi intervention opens door to Iran in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Agenda ◽  
Arab Middle East

Subject Iran's role in Yemen. Significance Yemeni and US officials have long claimed that Iran backs the northern Huthi movement, which follows the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his Gulf allies fear that Iran is helping the group to overthrow Hadi's government as part of an attempt to establish an arc of Iranian interference in the Arab Middle East, from Lebanon and Syria to the Gulf. However, the Huthis deny any such ties with Tehran, and, until now, Yemen has remained low down on Tehran's regional agenda. Impacts Iran will use the Saudi intervention as an opportunity to build its networks inside Yemen in order to gain more leverage in the Gulf. More tangible Iranian interference in Yemen is likely to stoke further sectarian tensions in the region. Rising sectarianism within Yemen would enable al-Qaida and Islamic State group to gain greater traction in the country. Iran will refrain from military intervention so long as the nuclear negotiations continue. Tehran will lobby diplomatically to boost Shia rights and Huthi representation in any future government.

Syria diplomacy will make little headway

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Influence ◽  
State Group ◽  
Syrian Conflict

Significance As one of the insurgency's key external backers, Riyadh is seeking to create a united political front for the Syrian opposition ahead of proposed international talks in Vienna on ending Syria's civil war, due to begin by January 1. The Vienna process is the first serious international diplomatic effort to resolve the Syrian conflict following the failed Geneva talks in January 2014. Impacts The absence of powerful, hardline Islamist groups from the talks will limit the effectiveness of any agreement. As the war drags on, sectarian tensions and Sunni radicalisation around the region will increase. International efforts to destroy Islamic State group will fail so long as the civil war continues. The Vienna process will increase Russia's regional influence and Iran's diplomatic status.

US pressure weakens Syria-based Khorasan Group

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Group A ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
State Group

Subject Assessment of the 'Khorasan Group' Significance The US-led coalition's airstrikes in Syria since 2014 have focused on the Islamic State group (ISG). However, they have also struck the 'Khorasan Group' -- a collection of veteran al-Qaida operatives that allegedly plots terrorist attacks abroad, and that operates on the edges of Syria's al-Qaida affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN). Beginning in late 2014, Washington warned repeatedly that the Khorasan Group was plotting attacks in Europe and the United States, and that it was recruiting holders of Western passports who would be able to enter and transit Western countries more easily. Impacts Al-Qaida outside Syria will likely pursue terrorist attacks that punish the West for its policies in the Muslim world. ISG will also carry out terrorist attacks in an effort to assert its leadership over the global jihadist movement. Without an imminent threat from the Khorasan Group, the West will have difficulty making a case for targeting JaN. JaN will retain a base of Syrian opposition support so long as it does not invite international retaliation by supporting an attack abroad.

Demobilisation will test Mali peace process

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The North ◽  
Terrorism Threat ◽  
Joachim Gauck ◽  
State Group ◽  
Regional Elections

Subject Prospects for peace in Mali Significance French Prime Minister Manuel Valls visited Bamako on February 18-19, just days after German President Joachim Gauck, to reiterate international support for Mali. Western governments are concerned about the threat from jihadist groups operating in the country's Saharan north and their potential for developing links with Islamic State group (ISG) in Libya. Despite the expanded terrorism threat, there have been some positive developments: the peace process in the north has taken major strides forward and decentralisation aimed to underpin peace has advanced. Impacts International partners will reinforce security efforts. To combat the risk of terrorism in Bamako, the authorities will encourage the public to report suspicious activity at community level. Regional elections will offer non-jihadist former rebel leaders a chance to assume a share of power locally.

Middle East jihadist splits will widen despite defeats

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Syrian Conflict ◽  
Hostile Attitude

Significance However, even in this extremity, it maintains a hostile attitude to old enemy Islamic State (IS). In Yemen, the other regional country where the two come into close contact, the local al-Qaida branch in its August 28 newsletter also strongly attacked IS, accusing it of fomenting intra-Muslim divisions. Impacts Even those al-Qaida supporters claiming to see a more ‘moderate’ trend in IS only identify a long-term possibility of rapprochement. As the Syrian conflict winds down, IS and HTS may step up competition, as insurgent cells launch terrorist attacks from desert bases. Splits between the different al-Qaida branches could worsen as some seek more pragmatic alliances and others prioritise ideological purity. In Yemen, al-Qaida’s deeper societal roots will give it greater long-term resilience than IS.

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