Serostatus Testing & Dengue Vaccine Cost-Benefit Thresholds

The World Health Organisation currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a bounding analysis, we show that despite additional testing costs, this approach can improve the economic viability of CYD-TDV: effective testing reduces unnecessary vaccination costs while increasing the health benefit for vaccine recipients. When testing is cheap enough, those trends outweigh additional screening costs and make test-then-vaccinate strategies net-beneficial in many settings.We derived these results using a general approach for determining price thresholds for testing and vaccination, as well as indicating optimal start and end ages of routine test-then-vaccinate programs. This approach only requires age-specific seroprevalence and a cost estimate for second infections. We demonstrate this approach across settings commonly used to evaluate CYD-TDV economics, and highlight implications of our simple model for more detailed studies. We found trends showing test-then-vaccinate strategies are generally more beneficial starting at younger ages, and that in some settings multiple years of testing can be more beneficial than only testing once, despite increased investment in testing.

Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy

This paper develops a method for forecasting the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of climate policy using three features of the failed Waxman-Markey bill. First, the MAC is revealed by the price of traded permits. Second, the permit price is estimated using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) comparing stock returns of firms on either side of the policy's free permit cutoff rule. Third, because Waxman-Markey was never implemented, I extend the RDD approach to incorporate prediction market prices which normalize estimates by policy realization probabilities. A final bounding analysis recovers a MAC range of $5 to $19 per ton CO2e. (JEL G12, G14, Q52, Q54, Q58)

Technical Basis for Code Case N-853: A600 Branch Connection Weld Repair for SCC Mitigation

The NRC Issued a Regulatory Issue Summary (RIS 15-10) which was an inquiry to the ASME Code Committee to review the in-service inspection requirements for Alloy 600 full penetration branch connections. This NRC request resulted in the initiation of two PWROG projects, PA-MSC-1283 and 1294. PA-MSC-1283 is a Fracture Analysis to evaluate the crack growth rate of the various existing A600 configurations, heat treat conditions and operating loads. The results from this study would provide the technical basis for in-service inspection method and frequency. PA-MSC-1294 is a project to consider contingency repair techniques and provide a bounding analysis for all nozzle configurations of the selected repair technique. The selected repair approach to be analyzed was a weld buildup referred as a Branch Connection Weld Metal Buildup (BCWMB) in the ASME Code Case (N-853) developed to provide the rules for design, implementation and inspection. Included in this project was a proof-of-principle phase to demonstrate that the repair methodology is implementable and assist in establishing the potential on component repair duration and anticipated dose.

Scaling Legitimacy for Design of Lead Rubber Bearing Isolated Structures Using a Bounding Analysis

In dynamic analyses, although there is no limitation for scale factors, the customary values vary from 0.25 to 4. However, these values are based on subjective judgments rather than a quantitative evaluation. This study focused on scaling legitimacy of acceleration time series to be used in dynamic analyses performed during the design of lead rubber bearing (LRB) isolated structures, to obtain a limit for scale factors. For this purpose, several dynamic analyses are performed with the parameters, namely, isolation period, peak ground velocity, and site class. In the analyses, a recently proposed deteriorating hysteretic bilinear representation is used to model the behavior of LRBs. Limitation for scale factors is discussed through the concept of bounding analysis that intends to provide design envelopes for response quantities of isolated structures. As a result, limits for scale factors, providing that the bounding analysis fulfills its intended purpose in design of LRBs, are proposed.

Is Gifted Education a Bright Idea? Assessing the Impact of Gifted and Talented Programs on Students

We evaluate the impact of Gifted and Talented (GT) programs on students through a regression discontinuity (RD) design, and by analyzing a randomized lottery for elite magnet GT schools. We show that GT students in each analysis are exposed to higher achieving peers and, in the RD sample, a more advanced curriculum. We find that achievement for marginal students neither improves nor worsens from GT services in the short run. We also find that lottery winners only perform better in science. Using a bounding analysis we cannot rule out zero, though we do not find any significant negative effects. (JEL H51, H75, I21, I28)

Bounding Analysis of Uplift and Erosion Scenario for an HLW Repository

Uplift and erosion scenarios must be analysed since these natural phenomena are expected to be inevitable at most districts in Japan. It is increasingly important to enhance the confidence in uplift and erosion scenarios even if these processes occur far into the future, since performance assessment cut-off times have not yet been defined. In this context, this study specifies uplift and erosion scenarios considering uplift and fluvial erosion based on Japanese geological and topographical characteristics and describes a conceptual model focused on a comprehensive fluvial erosion process that were based on generalisations of field observations. A series of bounding analyses have been carried out to define parameter conditions to satisfy hypothetical dose criteria considering various uplift and erosion rates and transmissivities. The results based on the conservative assumptions show that there are some cases that satisfy the hypothetical dose criterion in each phase for the likely scenario (base scenario: 10 μSv/y), which is a targeted dose suggested by the Nuclear Safety Commission for sub-surface disposal. All cases are below 300 μSv/y, which is the targeted dose for the less-likely scenario (variant scenario) as well as the dose constraint for radioactive waste disposal by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The discussion also provides that a loss of inventory in the engineered barrier system by accelerating release of nuclides does not significantly decrease the doses in later phases due to inherent attributes of the repository system, i.e. multiple barriers and multiple safety functions. In principle, the influence of uplift and erosion should be reduced by appropriate site selection and design, to the extent possible; to ensure that sufficient nuclides decay while the repository is deep underground.