The Bayesian Confidence Interval for Coefficient of Variation of Zero-inflated Poisson Distribution with Application to Daily COVID-19 Deaths in Thailand

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly throughout the world and has caused millions of deaths. However, the number of daily COVID-19 deaths in Thailand has been low with most daily records showing zero deaths, thereby making them fit a Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) distribution. Herein, confidence intervals for the Coefficient Of Variation (CV) of a ZIP distribution are derived using four methods: the standard bootstrap (SB), percentile bootstrap (PB), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and the Bayesian-based highest posterior density (HPD), for which using the variance of the CV is unnecessary. We applied the methods to both simulated data and data on the number of daily COVID-19 deaths in Thailand. Both sets of results show that the SB, MCMC, and HPD methods performed better than PB for most cases in terms of coverage probability and average length. Overall, the HPD method is recommended for constructing the confidence interval for the CV of a ZIP distribution. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-05 Full Text: PDF

Assessing a generic synapomorphy of Pseudodebis Forster, 1964 (Lepidoptera : Nymphalidae : Satyrinae) and a recent speciation with a shift in elevation between two new species in the western Andes

The field of systematics and our understanding of phylogenetic relationships have been invigorated by the use of molecular data, but analyses based on DNA sequence data are not always corroborated by diagnostic morphological characters. In particular, several taxonomic changes in butterflies (Papilionoidea) have been made solely on the basis of molecular data without identifying morphological synapomorphies that might have aided in diagnosing taxa from butterfly collections or specimens with no accessible DNA. We here focus on the butterfly genus Pseudodebis Forster, 1964 in the so-called ‘Taygetis clade’, which is one of the major clades in the diverse Neotropical nymphalid subtribe Euptychiina. We inferred the evolution of a male genitalic character using the most comprehensive molecular phylogeny for the ‘Taygetis clade’ to date. This approach allowed us to identify a synapomorphy for Pseudodebis Forster, 1964, which can be used to morphologically diagnose this genus and to distinguish it from other genera in the ‘Taygetis clade’. In addition, we describe two new species of Pseudodebis, P. nakamurai Nakahara & Willmott, sp. nov. and P. pieti Nakahara & Willmott, sp. nov., recovered as sister species based on molecular data, with an estimated time of divergence of 0.3 Ma (Bayesian confidence interval 0.03–1.61 Ma). Despite the low genetic divergence between these two Pseudodebis species, they can be readily distinguished by wing morphology. Pseudodebis nakamurai, sp. nov. and P. pieti, sp. nov. occur in partial sympatry across an elevational gradient along the western Andes, and the inferred recent speciation event might be related to a shift in elevation and possibly a change in larval hostplant preference. urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:38B4AF76-79E9-4D4D-BF16-FCD8F53A7277

Assessment of the Potential Adverse Events Related to Ribavirin-Interferon Combination for Novel Coronavirus Therapy

Purpose. We aimed to analyze and evaluate the safety signals of ribavirin-interferon combination through data mining of the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), so as to provide reference for the rationale use of these agents in the management of relevant toxicities emerging in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). Methods. Reports to the FAERS from 1 January 2004 to 8 March 2020 were analyzed. The proportion of report ratio (PRR), reporting odds ratio (ROR), and Bayesian confidence interval progressive neural network (BCPNN) method were used to detect the safety signals. Results. A total of 55 safety signals were detected from the top 250 adverse event reactions in 2200 reports, but 19 signals were not included in the drug labels. All the detected adverse event reactions were associated with 13 System Organ Classes (SOC), such as gastrointestinal, blood and lymph, hepatobiliary, endocrine, and various nervous systems. The most frequent adverse events were analyzed, and the results showed that females were more likely to suffer from anemia, vomiting, neutropenia, diarrhea, and insomnia. Conclusion. The ADE (adverse drug event) signal detection based on FAERS is helpful to clarify the potential adverse events related to ribavirin-interferon combination for novel coronavirus therapy; clinicians should pay attention to the adverse reactions of gastrointestinal and blood systems, closely monitor the fluctuations of the platelet count, and carry out necessary mental health interventions to avoid serious adverse events.

Mapping the relative risk of weight disorders in children and adolescents across provinces of Iran: the CASPIAN-V study

Background: This study aimed to find possible spatial variation in children’s weight disorders and in predicting the spatial distribution. Methods: The study population of this ecological study consisted of 7-18-year-old students living in 30 provinces of Iran. We used Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian model, to study the relative risk (RR) of underweight and excess weight (overweight and obese). The model was fitted to data using OpenBUGS (3.2.1) software. Results: The highest RR of underweight was found in southeastern provinces. Whereas, the highest RR of excess weight was documented in northern, northwestern and capital provinces.Sistan-Balouchestan (RR=1.973; Bayesian confidence interval [BCI]: 1.682, 2.289), Hormozgan(RR=1.482; BCI: 1.239, 1.749), South Khorasan (RR=1.422; BCI: 1.18, 1.687) and Kerman(RR=1.413; BCI: 1.18, 1.669) had the highest RR of underweight. Mazandaran (RR=1.366; BCI:1.172,1.581), Gilan (RR=1.346; BCI: 1.15,1.562), Tehran (RR=1.271; BCI: 1.086,1.472) and Alborz (RR=1.268; BCI: 1.079,1.475) provinces are high risk regions for excess weight. Conclusion: The significant variations in geographical distribution of weight disorders are because of various sociodemographic and ethnic differences. The current findings should be considered in health policy making in different regions of the country.

Genetic evaluation of popcorn families using a Bayesian approach via the independence chain algorithm

The objective of this study was to examine genetic parameters of popping expansion and grain yield in a trial of 169 half-sib families using a Bayesian approach. The independence chain algorithm with informative priors for the components of residual and family variance (inverse-gamma prior distribution) was used. Popping expansion was found to be moderately heritable, with a posterior mode of h² of 0.34, and 90% Bayesian confidence interval of 0.22 to 0.44. The heritability of grain yield (family level) was moderate (h² = 0.4) with Bayesian confidence interval of 0.28 to 0.49. The target population contains sufficient genetic variability for subsequent breeding cycles, and the Bayesian approach is a useful alternative for scientific inference in the genetic evaluation of popcorn.

ANALISIS REGRESI BAYES LINEAR SEDERHANA DENGAN PRIOR NONINFORMATIF

The aim of this study is to apply Bayesian simple linear regression using noninformative prior. The data used in this study is 30 observational data with error generated from normal distribution. The noninformative prior was formed using Jeffreys’ rule. Computation was done using the Gibbs Sampler algorithm with 10.000 iteration. We obtain the following estimates for the parameters, with 95% Bayesian confidence interval (0,775775; 2,626025), with 95% Bayesian confidence interval (2,948; 3,052), and with 95% Bayesian confidence interval (0,375295; 1,114). These values are not very different compared to the actual value of the parameters.