decision networks
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2022 ◽  
Vol 304 ◽  
pp. 114139
Author(s):  
David M. Norris ◽  
Michael E. Colvin ◽  
Leandro E. Miranda ◽  
Marcus A. Lashley

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 5031
Author(s):  
Javier Villalba-Diez ◽  
Miguel Gutierrez ◽  
Mercedes Grijalvo Martín ◽  
Tomas Sterkenburgh ◽  
Juan Carlos Losada ◽  
...  

With the advent of the Industry 4.0 paradigm, the possibilities of controlling manufacturing processes through the information provided by a network of sensors connected to work centers have expanded. Real-time monitoring of each parameter makes it possible to determine whether the values yielded by the corresponding sensor are in their normal operating range. In the interplay of the multitude of parameters, deterministic analysis quickly becomes intractable and one enters the realm of “uncertain knowledge”. Bayesian decision networks are a recognized tool to control the effects of conditional probabilities in such systems. However, determining whether a manufacturing process is out of range requires significant computation time for a decision network, thus delaying the triggering of a malfunction alarm. From its origins, JIDOKA was conceived as a means to provide mechanisms to facilitate real-time identification of malfunctions in any step of the process, so that the production line could be stopped, the cause of the disruption identified for resolution, and ultimately the number of defective parts minimized. Our hypothesis is that we can model the internal sensor network of a computer numerical control (CNC) machine with quantum simulations that show better performance than classical models based on decision networks. We show a successful test of our hypothesis by implementing a quantum digital twin that allows for the integration of quantum computing and Industry 4.0. This quantum digital twin simulates the intricate sensor network within a machine and permits, due to its high computational performance, to apply JIDOKA in real time within manufacturing processes.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Jern

The ability to predict and reason about other people's choices is fundamental to social interaction. We propose that people reason about other people's choices using mental models that are similar to decision networks. Decision networks are extensions of Bayesian networks that incorporate the idea that choices are made in order to achieve goals. In our first experiment, we explore how people predict the choices of others. Our remaining three experiments explore how people infer the goals and knowledge of others by observing the choices that they make. We show that decision networks account for our data better than alternative computational accounts that do not incorporate the notion of goal-directed choice or that do not rely on probabilistic inference.


Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 426
Author(s):  
Javier Villalba-Diez ◽  
Juan Carlos Losada ◽  
Rosa María Benito ◽  
Daniel Schmidt

The goal of this work is to explore how the relationship between two subordinates reporting to a leader influences the alignment of the latter with the company’s strategic objectives in an Industry 4.0 environment. We do this through the implementation of quantum circuits that represent decision networks. In fact, through the quantum simulation of strategic organizational design configurations (QSOD) through five hundred quantum circuit simulations. We conclude that the alignment probability of the leader is never higher than the average alignment value of his subordinates, i.e., the leader never has a better alignment than his subordinates. In other words, the leader cannot present asymptotic stability better than that of his subordinates. The most relevant conclusion of this work is the clear recommendation to the leaders of Industry 4.0 not to add hierarchical levels to their organization if they have not achieved high levels of stability in the lower levels.


Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Javier Villalba-Diez ◽  
Juan Carlos Losada ◽  
Rosa María Benito ◽  
Ana González-Marcos

In this work we explore how the relationship between one subordinate reporting to two leaders influences the alignment of the latter with the company’s strategic objectives in an Industry 4.0 environment. We do this through the implementation of quantum circuits that represent decision networks. This is done for two cases: One in which the leaders do not communicate with each other, and one in which they do. Through the quantum simulation of strategic organizational design configurations (QSOD) through 500 quantum circuit simulations, we conclude that in the first case both leaders are not simultaneously in alignment, and in the second case that both reporting nodes need to have an alignment probability higher than 90% to support the leader node.


Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (23) ◽  
pp. 6977
Author(s):  
Javier Villalba-Diez ◽  
Rosa María Benito ◽  
Juan Carlos Losada

In this paper we investigate how the relationship with a subordinate who reports to him influences the alignment of an Industry 4.0 leader. We do this through the implementation of quantum circuits that represent decision networks. In fact, through the quantum simulation of strategic organizational design configurations (QSOD) through five hundred simulations of quantum circuits, we conclude that there is an influence of the subordinate on the leader that resembles that of a harmonic under-damped oscillator around the value of 50% probability of alignment for the leader. Likewise, we have observed a fractal behavior in this type of relationship, which seems to conjecture that there is an exchange of energy between the two agents that oscillates with greater or lesser amplitude depending on certain parameters of interdependence. Fractality in this QSOD context allows for a quantification of these complex dynamics and its pervasive effect offers robustness and resilience to the two-qubit interaction.


Author(s):  
Charlotte M. Grosskopf ◽  
Nils B. Kroemer ◽  
Shakoor Pooseh ◽  
Franziska Böhme ◽  
Michael N. Smolka

Abstract Introduction Smokers discount delayed rewards steeper than non-smokers or ex-smokers, possibly due to neuropharmacological effects of tobacco on brain circuitry, or lower abstinence rates in smokers with steep discounting. To delineate both theories from each other, we tested if temporal discounting, choice inconsistency, and related brain activity in treatment-seeking smokers (1) are higher compared to non-smokers, (2) decrease after smoking cessation, and (3) predict relapse. Methods At T1, 44 dependent smokers, 29 non-smokers, and 30 occasional smokers underwent fMRI while performing an intertemporal choice task. Smokers were measured before and 21 days after cessation if abstinent from nicotine. In total, 27 smokers, 28 non-smokers, and 29 occasional smokers were scanned again at T2. Discounting rate k and inconsistency var(k) were estimated with Bayesian analysis. Results First, k and var(k) in smokers in treatment were not higher than in non-smokers or occasional smokers. Second, neither k nor var(k) changed after smoking cessation. Third, k did not predict relapse, but high var(k) was associated with relapse during treatment and over 6 months. Brain activity in valuation and decision networks did not significantly differ between groups and conditions. Conclusion Our data from treatment-seeking smokers do not support the pharmacological hypothesis of pronounced reversible changes in discounting behavior and brain activity, possibly due to limited power. Behavioral data rather suggest that differences between current and ex-smokers might be due to selection. The association of choice consistency and treatment outcome possibly links consistent intertemporal decisions to remaining abstinent.


2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Afreen Siddiqi ◽  
Eric Rebentisch ◽  
Samuel Dorchuck ◽  
Yuto Imanishi ◽  
Taisetsu Tanimichi

Abstract Architecture selection for systems undergoing rapid technological and market change is challenging. It is desirable to select architectures that can provide cost-effective possibilities for future changes and avoid architecture lock-in. However, optimal architectures for prevailing conditions may not be changeable for future adaptation. This tension between objectives for system (product) development for both short-term and long-term competitiveness has been an enduring challenge for system architects. Here, we use time-expanded decision networks (TDNs) with time-varying costs and demands to systematically explore future architecture transition pathways and strategically identify useful designs. We demonstrate a new application for autonomous driving (AD) systems, a nascent technology, where the design and capabilities of constituent components (such as sensors, processors, and data communication links) are still evolving and significant market and regulatory uncertainties persist. In this case, we model technology costs with time-based factors to explicitly include future trends. The results show that as cost differences between architectures increase and demand for new functionality changes with time, the approach is able to identify potential transition points between architecture choices that optimize the net present value (NPV) of the system. For some of the specific scenarios analyzed in this study, the NPV with optimal architecture transitions is at least 10–20% larger as compared with fixed cases. Overall, this work presents a case for planning and partly constructing architecture transition roadmaps for new systems wherein dominant architectures have not emerged.


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