The impact of meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on the Atlantic nutrient supply to the northwest European shelf

Projected future shoaling of the wintertime mixed layer in the northeast (NE) Atlantic has been shown to induce a regime shift in the main nutrient supply pathway from the Atlantic to the northwest European shelf (NWES) near the end of the 21st century. While reduced winter convection leads to a substantial decrease in the vertical nutrient supply and biological productivity in the open ocean, vertical mixing processes at the shelf break maintain a connection to the subpycnocline nutrient pool and thus productivity on the shelf. Here, we investigate how meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS), not yet taken into account, impacts the mixed layer shoaling and the regime shift in terms of spatial distribution and temporal variability. To this end, we have downscaled sensitivity experiments by a global Earth system model for various GIS melting rates with a regionally coupled ocean–atmosphere climate system model. The model results indicate that increasing GIS meltwater discharge leads to a general intensification of the regime shift. Atlantic subpycnocline water masses mixed up at the shelf break become richer in nutrients and thus further limit the projected nutrient decline on the shelf. Moreover, the stronger vertical nutrient gradient through the pycnocline results in an enhanced interannual variability of on-shelf nutrient fluxes which, however, do not significantly increase variations in nutrient concentrations and primary production on the shelf. Due to the impact of the GIS meltwater discharge on the NE Atlantic mixed layer depth, the regime shift becomes initiated earlier in the century. The effect on the onset timing, though, is found to be strongly damped by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A GIS melting rate that is even 10 times higher than expected for emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 would not lead to an onset of the regime shift until the 2070s.

The impact of melt water discharge from the Greenland ice sheet on the Atlantic nutrient supply to the Northwest European Shelf

Projected future shoaling of the wintertime mixed layer in the Northeast (NE) Atlantic has been shown to induce a regime shift in the main nutrient supply pathway from the Atlantic to the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) near the end of the 21st century. While reduced winter convection leads to a substantial decrease in the vertical nutrient supply and biological productivity in the open ocean, vertical mixing processes at the shelf break maintain a connection to the subpycnocline nutrient pool and thus productivity on the shelf. Here we investigate how meltwater discharge from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) not yet taken into account impacts the mixed layer shoaling and the regime shift in terms of spatial distribution and temporal variability. To this end we have downscaled sensitivity experiments by a global earth system model for various GIS melting rates with a regionally coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system model. The model results indicate that increasing GIS meltwater discharge leads to a general intensification of the regime shift. Atlantic subpycnocline water masses mixed up at the shelf break become richer in nutrients and thus limit the projected nutrient decline on the shelf. Moreover, the stronger vertical nutrient gradient through the pycnocline results in an enhanced interannual variability of on-shelf nutrient fluxes which, however, do not significantly increase variations in nutrient concentrations and primary production on the shelf. Moreover, due to the impact of the GIS meltwater discharge on the NE Atlantic mixed layer depth, the regime shift becomes initiated earlier in the century by about 1–2 decades, depending on the discharge rate. The effect on the onset timing, though, is found to be strongly damped by the weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. A GIS melting rate that is even 10 times higher than expected for emission scenario RCP8.5 would lead to an onset of the regime shift not until the 2070s.

High Resolution pH Measurements Using a Lab-on-Chip Sensor in Surface Waters of Northwest European Shelf Seas

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are resulting in a reduction in seawater pH, with potential detrimental consequences for marine organisms. Improved efforts are required to monitor the anthropogenically driven pH decrease in the context of natural pH variations. We present here a high resolution surface water pH data set obtained in summer 2011 in North West European Shelf Seas. The aim of our paper is to demonstrate the successful deployment of the pH sensor, and discuss the carbonate chemistry dynamics of surface waters of Northwest European Shelf Seas using pH and ancillary data. The pH measurements were undertaken using spectrophotometry with a Lab-on-Chip pH sensor connected to the underway seawater supply of the ship. The main processes controlling the pH distribution along the ship’s transect, and their relative importance, were determined using a statistical approach. The pH sensor allowed 10 measurements h−1 with a precision of 0.001 pH units and a good agreement with pH calculated from a pair of discretely sampled carbonate variables dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA) and partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (e.g., pHDICpCO2). For this summer cruise, the biological activity formed the main control on the pH distribution along the cruise transect. This study highlights the importance of high quality and high resolution pH measurements for the assessment of carbonate chemistry dynamics in marine waters.

What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the Northwest European shelf?

Sustainable management and utilisation of the Northwest European Shelf Seas (NWS) could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly-to-seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems, and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS, allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office’s GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5, and the state of the NWS; and C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We reject A) after showing that the GloSea5 system is inadequate for simulating the NWS directly. Turning to B), we explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis. We find some statistically significant relationships, and present a skilful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We then consider the potential of C). We find large scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible. We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated to the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS, and consider the research priorities for their development.