scholarly journals What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the Northwest European shelf?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Tinker ◽  
Justin Krijnen ◽  
Richard Wood ◽  
Rosa Barciela ◽  
Stephen R. Dye
Keyword(s):  
Marine Environment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The State ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
European Shelf ◽  
Northwest European Shelf

Abstract. Sustainable management and utilisation of the Northwest European Shelf Seas (NWS) could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly-to-seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems, and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS, allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office’s GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5, and the state of the NWS; and C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We reject A) after showing that the GloSea5 system is inadequate for simulating the NWS directly. Turning to B), we explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis. We find some statistically significant relationships, and present a skilful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We then consider the potential of C). We find large scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible. We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated to the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS, and consider the research priorities for their development.

scholarly journals What are the prospects for seasonal prediction of the marine environment of the North-west European Shelf?

Ocean Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 887-909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Tinker ◽  
Justin Krijnen ◽  
Richard Wood ◽  
Rosa Barciela ◽  
Stephen R. Dye
Keyword(s):  
Marine Environment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
The State ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
North West ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
European Shelf

Abstract. Sustainable management and utilisation of the North-west European Shelf (NWS) seas could benefit from reliable forecasts of the marine environment on monthly to seasonal timescales. Recent advances in global seasonal forecast systems and regional marine reanalyses for the NWS allow us to investigate the potential for seasonal forecasts of the state of the NWS. We identify three possible approaches to address this issue: (A) basing NWS seasonal forecasts directly on output from the Met Office's GloSea5 global seasonal forecast system; (B) developing empirical downscaling relationships between large-scale climate drivers predicted by GloSea5 and the state of the NWS; and (C) dynamically downscaling GloSea5 using a regional model. We show that the GloSea5 system can be inadequate for simulating the NWS directly (approach A). We explore empirical relationships between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and NWS variables estimated using a regional reanalysis (approach B). We find some statistically significant relationships and present a skillful prototype seasonal forecast for English Channel sea surface temperature. We find large-scale relationships between inter-annual variability in the boundary conditions and inter-annual variability modelled on the shelf, suggesting that dynamic downscaling may be possible (approach C). We also show that for some variables there are opposing mechanisms correlated with the NAO, for which dynamic downscaling may improve on the skill possible with empirical forecasts. We conclude that there is potential for the development of reliable seasonal forecasts for the NWS and consider the research priorities for their development.

How well do seasonal forecasts reproduce European winter storm clustering and its relationship to large-scale climate drivers?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Angus ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Explained Variance ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Insight Into

<div>The inter-annual variability of the European windstorm season is dependent on a number of large-scale climate drivers and conditions, for example the North Atlantic Oscillation. For seasonal forecasts to provide valuable information to decision makers about the potential severity of the winter windstorm season, they must capture this relationship between large-scale climate drivers and seasonal windstorm frequency in advance. Here, we examine the performance of the latest state of the art ECMWF seasonal forecast product (SEAS5) in capturing this climate response. We apply a statistical model previously shown to well reproduce the explained behaviour of European windstorms from large-scale climate drivers (Walz et al. 2018) to SEAS5, and examine the choice of statistically significant drivers. The model applied is a stepwise Poisson regression approach to account for serial clustering within inter-annual variability of windstorms, the resultant of which categorizes each windstorm season as either active, neutral or inactive. In particular, we focus on the European region where the explained variance of the statistical model in observations is highest (Walz et al. 2018), the British Isles. In addition to comparing the performance of the model in SEAS5 and in observations, we examine which relationships are not recreated in the seasonal forecast successfully from a dynamical perspective, to provide further insight into the current ability of seasonal forecasts to represent European windstorm inter-annual variability.</div><div> </div><div>Reference:</div><div>Walz, M. A., Befort, D. J., Kirchner‐Bossi, N. O., Ulbrich, U., & Leckebusch, G. C. (2018). Modelling serial clustering and inter‐annual variability of European winter windstorms based on large‐scale drivers. <em>International Journal of Climatology</em>, <em>38</em>(7), 3044-3057.</div>

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (8) ◽  
pp. E1413-E1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antje Weisheimer ◽  
Daniel J. Befort ◽  
Dave MacLeod ◽  
Tim Palmer ◽  
Chris O’Reilly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Skill Scores ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Forecast Models

Abstract Forecasts of seasonal climate anomalies using physically based global circulation models are routinely made at operational meteorological centers around the world. A crucial component of any seasonal forecast system is the set of retrospective forecasts, or hindcasts, from past years that are used to estimate skill and to calibrate the forecasts. Hindcasts are usually produced over a period of around 20–30 years. However, recent studies have demonstrated that seasonal forecast skill can undergo pronounced multidecadal variations. These results imply that relatively short hindcasts are not adequate for reliably testing seasonal forecasts and that small hindcast sample sizes can potentially lead to skill estimates that are not robust. Here we present new and unprecedented 110-year-long coupled hindcasts of the next season over the period 1901–2010. Their performance for the recent period is in good agreement with those of operational forecast models. While skill for ENSO is very high during recent decades, it is markedly reduced during the 1930s–1950s. Skill at the beginning of the twentieth century is, however, as high as for recent high-skill periods. Consistent with findings in atmosphere-only hindcasts, a midcentury drop in forecast skill is found for a range of atmospheric fields, including large-scale indices such as the NAO and the PNA patterns. As with ENSO, skill scores for these indices recover in the early twentieth century, suggesting that the midcentury drop in skill is not due to a lack of good observational data. A public dissemination platform for our hindcast data is available, and we invite the scientific community to explore them.

Assessing reasons for skilful predictions of winter windstorms over the Atlantic/European region

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Degenhardt ◽  
Gregor Leckebusch ◽  
Adam Scaife
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Surface Wind Speed ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Skill Scores

<p>Severe Atlantic winter storms are affecting densely populated regions of Europe (e.g. UK, France, Germany, etc.). Consequently, different parts of the society, financial industry (e.g., insurance) and last but not least the general public are interested in skilful forecasts for the upcoming storm season (usually December to March). To allow for a best possible use of steadily improved seasonal forecasts, the understanding which factors contribute to realise forecast skill is essential and will allow for an assessment whether to expect a forecast to be skilful or not.</p><p>This study analyses the predictability of the seasonal forecast model of the UK MetOffice, the GloSea5. Windstorm events are identified and tracked following Leckebusch et al. (2008) via the exceedance of the 98<sup>th</sup> percentile of the near surface wind speed.</p><p>Seasonal predictability of windstorm frequency in comparison to observations (based e.g., on ERA5 reanalysis) are calculated and different statistical methods (skill scores) are compared.</p><p>Large scale patterns (e.g., NAO, AO, EAWR, etc.) and dynamical factors (e.g., Eady Growth Rate) are analysed and their predictability is assessed in comparison to storm frequency forecast skill. This will lead to an idea how the forecast skill of windstorms is depending on the forecast skill of forcing factors conditional to the phase of large-scale variability modes. Thus, we deduce information, which factors are most important to generate seasonal forecast skill for severe extra-tropical windstorms.</p><p>The results can be used to get a better understanding of the resulting skill for the upcoming windstorm season.</p>

scholarly journals The Impact of Land Surface and Atmospheric Initialization on Seasonal Forecasts with CCSM

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 1007-1021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel A. Paolino ◽  
James L. Kinter ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman ◽  
Dughong Min ◽  
David M. Straus
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecast ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Series of forecast experiments for two seasons investigate the impact of specifying realistic initial states of the land in conjunction with the observed states of the ocean and atmosphere while using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3.0). Since direct soil moisture observations adequate for initialization of the land surface do not exist, this study considers proxy data. The authors are able to successfully initialize all components of the CCSM3.0 and produce a good representation of the mean land surface climate in the first season’s forecast. In comparison with a previous set of forecast experiments that had initialized only the observed ocean state, there is firm evidence that this study produces a better representation of the interannual variability of the soil surface. The representation of soil moisture in the fully initialized seasonal forecasts as measured against the reanalysis is improved, due in part to the ability of the CCSM3.0 to persist large-scale anomalies present in the initial soil state. The improvement in the representation of the land surface, in conjunction with the atmospheric initialization, contributes to a skillful seasonal forecast of surface temperature. There is little evidence of an improved forecast of precipitation over land. Results from this study support the use of the CCSM, originally designed for use as a climate model, as a fully initialized seasonal forecast model. The authors suggest that initialization of the land surface state is crucial for skillful seasonal forecasts made with fully coupled models.

Is economic inequality a universal evil?

2019 ◽  
pp. 91-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rostislav I. Kapeliushnikov
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Economic Inequality ◽  
The State ◽  
Fair Play ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Ordinary People ◽  
The Public ◽  
Discursive Power ◽  
A Current

Using published estimates of inequality for two countries (Russia and USA) the paper demonstrates that inequality measuring still remains in the state of “statistical cacophony”. Under this condition, it seems at least untimely to pass categorical normative judgments and offer radical political advice for governments. Moreover, the mere practice to draw normative conclusions from quantitative data is ethically invalid since ordinary people (non-intellectuals) tend to evaluate wealth and incomes as admissible or inadmissible not on the basis of their size but basing on whether they were obtained under observance or violations of the rules of “fair play”. The paper concludes that a current large-scale ideological campaign of “struggle against inequality” has been unleashed by left-wing intellectuals in order to strengthen even more their discursive power over the public.

TO THE PROBLEMS OF COMBATING CORRUPTION IN MODERN RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN THE FIELD OF ANTI-CORRUPTION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Dranishnikova
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The State ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Modern Life ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Moral Point ◽  
Material Goods ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government

In the article, the author reflects the existing problems of the fight against corruption in the Russian Federation. He focuses on the opacity of the work of state bodies, leading to an increase in bribery and corruption. The topic we have chosen is socially exciting in our days, since its significance is growing on a large scale at all levels of the investigated aspect of our modern life. Democratic institutions are being jeopardized, the difference in the position of social strata of society in society’s access to material goods is growing, and the state of society is suffering from the moral point of view, citizens are losing confidence in the government, and in the top officials of the state.

Etude de l'aménagement d'une forêt classée au Mali avec la participation des populations riveraines - Données du problème et éléments de méthodologie | A Study of the Management of a State-Owned Forest in Mali with the Participation of the Population Living nearby - Issue under Investigation and Elements of Methodology

2000 ◽  
Vol 151 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-83
Author(s):  
Pascal Schneider ◽  
Jean-Pierre Sorg
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Research Methodology ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Environmental Context ◽  
Forest Resources ◽  
The State ◽  
Commercial Use ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
The People

In and around the state-owned forest of Farako in the region of Sikasso, Mali, a large-scale study focused on finding a compromise allowing the existential and legitimate needs of the population to be met and at the same time conserving the forest resources in the long term. The first step in research was to sketch out the rural socio-economic context and determine the needs for natural resources for autoconsumption and commercial use as well as the demand for non-material forest services. Simultaneously, the environmental context of the forest and the resources available were evaluated by means of inventories with regard to quality and quantity. According to an in-depth comparison between demand and potential, there is a differentiated view of the suitability of the forest to meet the needs of the people living nearby. Propositions for a multipurpose management of the forest were drawn up. This contribution deals with some basic elements of research methodology as well as with results of the study.

SEARCH FOR A NEW MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF WORLD-CLASS HYDROGEN TECHNOLOGIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (7) ◽  
pp. 114-119
Author(s):  
V. F. UKOLOV ◽  
◽  
E. N. OZHIGANOV ◽  
Yu. V. RAGULINA ◽  
V. V. ARKHIPOV ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The State ◽  
Type Structure ◽  
Management Model ◽  
World Class ◽  
Hydrogen Technologies

After the research, the authors came to the conclusion: it is necessary to get a new, interstate platform-type structure for the development, production and large-scale implementation of civil hydrogen technologies for various fields of activity and the state.

State youth policy and its role in social development

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
YURI V. BEREZUTSKIY ◽  
◽  
NIKOLAY M. BAYKOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Social Activity ◽  
Far East ◽  
The State ◽  
Youth Policy ◽  
Employment Conditions ◽  
Sociological Studies ◽  
Migratory Movements

The article presents the analysis of the state youth policy as an instrument of influence on the state and social development of youth, its social activity. The contradictions that exist between the performance indicators declared by the state policy and the real problems of youth, determined by the living conditions, are indicated. Based on the results of all-Russian and regional sociological studies and statistics, the motives of migratory movements of youth from their territories of residence to the centers of gravity of the country and foreign countries that have more attractive living and employment conditions for youth are justified. Using the example of the Russian Far East, the dysfunctional consequences of the clerical-bureaucratic approach laid down in the state youth policy to quantify the state of youth ignoring its large-scale migration outflow from the territories of residence are substantiated. Scientific and practical recommendations on improvement of indicators of the state youth policy promoting strengthening of its role in providing the basic needs of youth in various spheres of activity, especially in development of youth business are offered.

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