Demographic future of Russia in the UN forecasts: "scientific foresight" and reality

The article provides a brief history of the emergence of demographic forecasts, shows their use by the United Nations, the range of countries for which forecasts were made and are being drawn up, considers demographic forecasts that were carried out during the Soviet era and provides a detailed analysis of demographic forecasts for Russia. In contrast to the forecasts of the population of the Soviet Union as a whole, for Russia they initially began to focus on the downward dynamics. It is concluded that over two decades (1996-2015) in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos (excluding the former republics of Yugoslavia), the population as a whole has decreased to 95.5%, while in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos — it increased to 123.8%. The forecasts given in the article are compared with the actual size of the population that has already taken place. Everywhere in countries with a predominance of the Slavic ethnos, the actual population is higher than the predicted, and in countries with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos, on the contrary. Comparing the forecasts with the actual population dynamics, the conclusion is substantiated about a noticeable change in the ratio between the two groups of countries united by ethnicity, a decrease in the demographic potential of the Slavic group and its increase in the group with a predominance of the Anglo-Saxon ethnos. In the final part of the work, it is said that the presented rates of change in the population size in 35 years and then in another 50 years, arising from the UN demographic forecasts for 2050 and 2100, as well as the demographic dynamics in the 90s of the twentieth century and in the first 15 years of the new century, indicate that if Russia, like other Slavic countries do not make radical efforts and, accordingly, do not consistently take effective measures to change the demographic trends, then the same thing can happen to Russia as has happened in different centuries to many countries such as Assyria, the Hunnic Empire, etc. The current geopolitical situation in which Russia is, its status as a great power, the country's largest territory in the world, favorable geographical position and colossal natural resources, dictate the need to increase its economic, defense and, naturally, demographic potential.

A Lagrangian Backward Air Parcel Trajectories Clustering Framework

Many studies concerning atmosphere moisture paths use Lagrangian backward air parcel trajectories to determine the humidity sources for specific locations. Automatically grouping trajectories according to their geographical position simplifies and speeds up their analysis. In this paper, we propose a framework for clustering Lagrangian backward air parcel trajectories, from trajectory generation to cluster accuracy evaluation. We employ a novel clustering algorithm, called DenLAC, to cluster troposphere air currents trajectories. Our main contribution is representing trajectories as a one-dimensional array consisting of each trajectory’s points position vector directions. We empirically test our pipeline by employing it on several Lagrangian backward trajectories initiated from Břeclav District, Czech Republic.

From fishing villages to international tourist destinations: where are the citizens?

The present article examines the relationship between tourism, production of space and the role of residents at two hotspot tourist destinations in Brazil: Cabo Frio, located in State of Rio de Janeiro and Porto Seguro, in State of Bahia. The development of the tourist industry in the localities under study occurred at different points in time. In the first, the urbanization process was associated with the acquisition of second homes in the 1950s, while the second, located in the Northeast region of the country, this process emerged in conjunction with the mass tourism industry only in the late 1980s. We hope this research will enhance understanding of the process of urbanization and the configuration of tourism space and the conflicts arising from this in developing countries, notably Latin America. Our methodology employed theories based on those developed by Chesnais (1996, 2005, 2016), Harvey (2005, 2008, 2011, 2014), Santos (2006) and others to explain the production of space in a way that goes beyond the use of historical data and socioeconomic analysis. The initial conclusion was that, despite the differences in the process (mass tourism vs. second homes, development in space and over time and geographical position), the two geographical locations selected presented the same findings: unequal production of space and the exclusion of local populations. The tourism activity investigated in these two case studies thus appears to replicate the current stage of development in Brazil, characterized by inequality and exclusion and reflected in the landscapes of the country’s tourist destinations.

RISK ASSESSMENT OF ARCTIC NAVIGATION BY USING IMPROVED FUZZY-AHP APPROACH

In this study, navigational risk factors of the Arctic Ocean are defined and numerical weights of each risk are obtained by using Improved Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (IF-AHP) method after conducting expert consultations. The Northern Sea Route shortens the maritime distance approximately 7000 nautical miles comparing to the conventional Suez Canal route. Therefore, it takes a significant role of being economic and time advantage for global logistics. Its geographical position, presence of ice, heavy weather conditions, strong currents and winds are some risks for Arctic transportation. There always have the possibility of unpredictable catastrophes such as a collision, grounding, hull damage and etc. in this region. Reflections of such unwanted incidents might be very costly for economic, political, environmental and safety concerns. Due to there are limited academic studies regarding to analytical and systematical risk identification and determination of risk levels, this study contributes to complete this academic gap.

MEGXIT IN CONTEMPORARY MEDIA AND INTERNET DISCOURSES

Every language preserves historic realia, reveals peculiarities of the geographical position of a particular country, main traits of the national character, and the overall cultural code of every nation speaking it. The language also describes all new realia and phenomena, and neologisms are coined all the time. «Brexit», «Megxit», «To Meghan Markle» are relatively new words in the English language. Romanticized image of a beautiful and tender princess, happily married to her royal Beau − a handsome, valiant and dashing young man is one of the most popular icons in European folklore. But modern fairy-tales are not that much simple. One omniscient author is definitely not enough, and millions of other on-line commentators contribute to the main line of the story, describing the prince and his princess, and often calling them names. Surprisingly as it may seem, the saying «My home is my castle» becomes not true, and the palace walls often shudder from rumors and insinuations, racial slurs and undertones. Under the circumstances a former friend often becomes a foe, compatriots become the invaders, responsible for a massive intrusion and violation of a basic human right for privacy. The main characters feel unhappy and the fairy tale soon becomes a thing to endure. These are the realia of our modern culture, with its etiquette and netiquette, black PR, on-line trolls and getting bad press. The Sussex family often cites racism as the main cause of all their troubles, but the plethora of various texts can reveal much more than just racism and related inequities. Personal qualities of the Duchess, her American origin and professionalbackground contribute to a massive cultural clash, and the new word «Megxit» appears, adding new shades of meaning to the «happily ever after» from the fairy tales. The article centers on the issues causing Megxit, and the texts give newinsight to a famous and well-known story.

Massive Damage to Coastal Region of Bangladesh by the Cyclone Storm YASS

Background: Tropical cyclones have significant destructive features like strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storms. It happens frequently in Bangladesh because of its geographical position. The southern parts of Bangladesh suffer most, especially the south-western region. Cyclone YASS hit the same parts of the country as cyclone Amphan did in 2020. These areas are still reeling from the effects of the prior tragedies. Methods: Secondary data has used to full fill the objective of the study investigating the damages of cyclone YASS in Bangladesh. Results: Wind and storm surge of the cyclone affected the south-western of Bangladesh. In Patuakhali and Jhalokathi districts, people were mostly affected and houses were mostly damaged in Patuakhali district. Paddy fields were mostly damaged and fish farms in Satkhira district were mostly damaged due their proximity to the cyclone track. Some places have been affected due to the storm surge. Conclusion: Due to the lack of suitable embankments in the coastal region, these areas are flooded by the storm surge. Authorities and government has to take necessary steps to overcome the losses.

DIRECTIONS OF PERSPECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TERRITORIAL ORGANIZATION OF THE REGIONAL TOURIST COMPLEX OF KHMELNYTSKY REGION

The directions of perspective development of the territorial organization of the regional tourist complex of Khmelnytsky region are analyzed. As part of the regional tourist complex of Khmelnytsky region, we have identified point elements of the territorial structure: 2 bifunctional tourist nodes; 10 bifunctional tourist centers; 1 monofunctional tourist center; 17 bifunctional tourist points; 18 monofunctional tourist points. Four clusters are distinguished. The most complex territorial formations in the regional tourist complex of Khmelnytsky region are Khmelnytsky and Kamyanets-Podilsky bifunctional dispersed bushes. The main branch directions of perspective development of tourist activity of Khmelnytsky region are considered. As part of the improvement of the territorial organization of the regional tourist complex, it is necessary to pay attention first of all to the intensification of activities to complete the formation of existing tourist dispersed bushes. It is necessary to promote the establishment of Kamyanets-Podilsky as a tourist «superpoint» of the national level. It is advisable to form on the basis of this city a complex dispersed tourist bush, which should take a leading position in the development of tourism in the Khmelnytsky region. In order to reduce the polarization of the tourist regional complex, to promote the completion of the formation of tourist scattered bushes in other areas of the region. Of particular importance is its development on the basis of the regional center, which has the most favorable transport and geographical position in the region. It is expedient to build a primary network of tourist points and centers in the most promising 13 rural settlements, as well as to create two tourist clusters (Medzhibizh and Sataniv). Of particular importance is the development of a network of agricultural settlements, which will attract existing from the monuments of nature, history and culture. Thus, on the one hand, it is necessary to promote the establishment of Kamyanets-Podilsky as a tourist "superpoint" of the national level. It is advisable to form on the basis of this city a complex dispersed tourist bush, which should take a leading position in the development of tourism in the Khmelnytsky region. On the other hand, in order to reduce the polarization of the tourist regional complex, it is advisable to help complete the formation of tourist scattered bushes in other areas of the region. Of particular importance in this context is its development on the basis of the regional center, which has the most favorable transport and geographical position in the region. Also expedient, in our opinion, is the development of the primary network of tourist points and centers in the most promising 13 rural settlements, as well as the creation of two tourist clusters on the basis of the villages of Medzhibizh and Sataniv. Of particular importance in this context is the development of a network of agro-villages, which will involve in tourism activities of national importance monuments of nature, history, culture, as well as partially relevant monuments of local importance in the Khmelnytsky region. Key words: development, territorial organization, regional tourist complex, Khmelnytsky region.

Analysis of historical cartography and data presentation for an educational purpose: The case of the historical centre of Vimercate

Founded by Romans, Vimercate had an important geographical position in Lombardy. Layers of history are visible throughout the town, yet there is the inconsistency of historical data and neglect of the historical centre in the past decades. Only recently researchers and professors from Politecnico di Milano pointed out the importance of studying layers of history in the built environment. In the past years, Vimercate was used as an example for students from masters and bachelor courses in preservation studios. This is where the idea for the master’s thesis was developed which focuses on the collection, digitalisation and investigation of primary historical cartography and then other historical documents. Historical cartography can offer extensive knowledge about the past of this town and it is one of the main sources of information. For the creation of the project was selected free and open-source software QGIS where the selected historical maps were vectorised, compared and investigated. A new understanding of the development of the city was studied and some discoveries appeared. Effective application of the thesis project started in the courses of Architectural preservation studio at Politecnico di Milano. This was followed by the interest of citizens in the project who were actively participated in the creation of the same. Other stakeholders showed interest in involving in future developments. The thesis found its application in didactic activities of students and pupils.

Coastal vulnerability mapping due to tsunami using Geographic Information System in Buleleng Regency, Bali Province

Bali is one of the areas vulnerable to disasters because of its geographical position, which is flanked by two earthquake sources in the form of a subduction zone and back-arc thrust zone, which can cause a tsunami in Bali region. This research aims to identify and map the level of coastal vulnerability to the tsunami in Buleleng Regency, Bali Province. The mapping was carried out using Geographic Information System (GIS). This study used secondary data and field data. The parameters used in analyzing the level of tsunami vulnerability were land elevation, slope, landuse, distance from the beach, and distance from the river. The level of vulnerability was grouped into five classes, namely very safe (35,466.9 ha), safe (70,485.0 ha), moderately vulnerable (17,645.0 ha), vulnerable (6,903.3 ha), and very vulnerable (438.9 ha) located in the Districts of Gerokgak, Seririt, Buleleng, and Sawan which are close to the river.

The shores of the contact zone of the Subarctic and moderately cold seas

Longitude sectorality and latitudinal zonality of morpholithogenesis on the coast of Sakhalin is the result of the unique geographical position of the island, which is a zone of mutual influences and interactions of neighboring geosystems of the subarctic Sea of Okhotsk and the moderately cold northern part of the Sea of Japan – a contact geographical structure. Based on the digitizing of maps of morphogenetic types of shores, modern morpholithodynamic settings and lithological complexes of the coast, geomorphological and morphodynamic differences of the shores of Sakhalin Island are shown, the eastern shores of which have a subarctic appearance, and the western shores are washed by the temperate sea.