DOES ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY REDUCE FINANCIAL INCLUSION?

This study investigates whether the level of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) would reduce the level of financial inclusion. It was predicted that a high level of EPU could have a negative effect on the level of financial inclusion. It was argued that a high level of EPU would discourage financial institutions from providing basic financial services to low end customers and unbanked adults, and this would lead to a decrease in the level of financial inclusion. Using a sample of 22 countries, the study found that the level of EPU did not have a significant impact on financial inclusion. None of the nine indicators of financial inclusion were found to have a significant direct relationship with EPU. However, there was some evidence that the combined effect of a high level of EPU and high nonperforming loans could reduce financial inclusion, particularly through bank branch contraction and a reduction in the use of electronic payments. Furthermore, the use of formal accounts and credit cards would increase in times of high credit supply and when there was a high level of EPU.

PREDICTING NPLs FOR CROATIA WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

This paper aims to examine some of the macroeconomic drivers of nonperforming loans (NPL) in Croatia. Unemployment rate, industrial production index, construction works volume and the number of tourist arrivals were evaluated as the drivers on a quarterly data sample from 2008q4 to 2020q4. Following quantile regression approach, unemployment rates and construction works volume appeared as significant drivers of NPL in Croatia. Furthermore, empirical findings from this paper suggest asymmetric effects on NPL from its drivers. While decrease in construction works volume and increase in unemployment rates were found to correspond with increase in NPL, an increase in construction works volume and decrease in unemployment rates were not correlated with decrease in NPL. Consequently, the paper brings implications for credit institutions in Croatia within the context of COVID-19 pandemic crises.

The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic and Social Distancing on Banks’ Asset Quality: An International Evidence

This paper aims at testing the significance of each of Covid-19 pandemic and social distancing on banks’ asset quality, using a sample of 30 banks representing 10 countries according to GMM technique. Data have been collected from the World Health Organization during 2020. The research covers 10 countries (Egypt; Saudi Arabia; Indonesia; Germany; France; Russia; India; Mexico; South Korea and Nigeria) where 3 banks have been investigated from each country. Results indicate that banks’ asset quality measured by Average change of nonperforming loans ratio seems to be sensitive to Covid-19 spread, measured by Average cases of COVID-19. Besides, findings support the effect of social distancing, measured by each of average staying at residential and average social distancing for retail-recreation. It’s important to pinpoint that results do not support the effect of each of average deaths of Covid-19 and average social distancing for workplaces, residential, grocery pharmacy, parks and transit stations.

The Relationship between Lending Rate and Nonperforming Loans in Commercial Banks: Evidence from Pakistan (2008-2014)

The objective of the study was to examine the relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans in commercial banks of Pakistan. The study collects data on bank size and nonperforming loans from the annual reports of commercial banks and lending rates data was collected from the state bank of Pakistan statistical bulletins for the period of 2008-2014 and the data was analyzed through SPSS to examine the relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans. The study used correlation and regression methods. The study found a significant positive relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans in commercial banks of Pakistan

NON-PERFORMING LOANS AND FINANCIAL STABILITY OF DEPOSIT TAKING SACCOS REGULATED BY SASRA

Purpose: The study sought to investigate the effect of non-performing loan on financial stability of deposit taking SACCOs in Kenya. Materials and Methods: The study adopted a desktop methodology. Desk research refers to secondary data or that which can be collected without fieldwork. Desk research is basically involved in collecting data from existing resources hence it is often considered a low cost technique as compared to field research, as the main cost is involved in executive’s time, telephone charges and directories. Thus, the study relied on already published studies, reports and statistics. This secondary data was easily accessed through the online journals and library Results: Nonperforming loans and their effect on the financial stability of SACCOs using have not been adequately featured in any of the studies reviewed. This leaves a gap that needs to be filled. SACCOs play a very vital role in the financial intermediation in the Kenyan economy and their uniqueness in operations. This study will therefore focus on filling this gap. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: the study findings of this study will assist the regulators of Sacco’s SASRA to formulate stringent policies to tame the rising cases of non-performing loans. The findings of this study will be useful to SACCOs within Nairobi County in evaluating how effective their approach to managing NPLs has been. This will enable them to identify the gaps in their management of NPLs and adjust accordingly.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Bank Equity and Performance: The Case of Central Eastern South European Countries

The purpose of this article is to examine the impact of the shock increase, in the value of nonperforming loans, on the equity level and profitability of 141 banks in 18 countries of Central Eastern South Europe (CESE). This study is important for assessing the financial stability of banks in this region in the face of the continuing negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the annual data, as of the end of 2020, from the S&P Global database, stress tests were carried out to check what value of NPL growth, over the next year, will lead to breach the regulatory capital requirements in domestic sectors and in individual groups of banks. The results indicate that the banks in CESE were well capitalized and had the ability to maintain capital requirements with a 12% increase in nonperforming loans. The resilience of domestic banking sectors varies, and it is higher in non-EU countries. Smaller and non-public banks show a greater ability to preserve the appropriate level of equity, although there is a risk that they may postpone the time of provisioning credit risk and additionally increase lending to lower the NPL ratio. Larger banks are more profitable in times of crisis. The results of the research are important for assessing the stability of the banking sector in CESE during the crisis and can be used by financial supervision of the region’s countries and banking market analysts.

The Vanishing Interest Income of Chinese Banks

Chinese banks likely have more nonperforming loans (NPLs) than officially reported. Banks’ NPLs often deviate from Benford's law. As hidden NPLs earn no interest income, loan quality problems may erode the gross interest income of banks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the interest income of a hypothetical profit-maximizing Chinese bank with no credit quality problems. Taking the deviation of actual interest income from the calculated efficient income, we then attempt to reveal the amount of hidden NPLs in Chinese banks. Our results uncover a substantial weakening in the quality of Chinese bank loan portfolios in 2016.

Financial Performance as a Mediator of Risk Management on Organizational Performance

Sharia Bank is a bank that conducts business activities based on sharia principles, or Islamic legal principles stipulated in the fatwa of the MUI such as the principles of justice and balance, benefit, universalism. This study aims to examine the effect of risk management represented by Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Operational Efficiency (BOPO), and Nonperforming Loans (NPL), on organizational performance by mediating financial performance that is represented by Return on Assets (ROA) on Sharia Banking Companies recorded in IDX from 2013 up to 2017. The data used in this study were obtained from their Financial Statements. After passing the purposive sample stage, six Islamic Banking companies recorded in IDX were eligible for use. The results of the study show that risk management influences organizational performance, while financial performance does not mediate the effect of risk management on organizational performance. Thus, Sharia banking operations must be adjusted to sharia principles and the bank is expected to pay more attention to the efficiency of the operations to improve risk management. Companies must think about the benefits and risks of lending funds to other parties so that the company value remains optimal.

Corporate stress and bank nonperforming loans: Evidence from Pakistan

Using detailed administrative Pakistani credit registry data, we show that banks with low leverage ratios are both significantly slower and less likely to recognize a loan as nonperforming than other banks that lend to the same firm. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that this lack of recognition impedes loan curing, with banks with low leverage ratios reporting significantly higher final default rates than other banks for the same borrower (even after controlling for differences in loan terms). Our empirical findings are consistent with the theoretical prediction that classifying a nonperforming loan is more expensive for banks with less capital.