The financial and prudential performance of Chinese banks and Fintech lenders in the era of digitalization

The years 2013 to 2019 marked an explosion in Fintech in China. We analyze the financial and prudential performance of 40 exchange-traded banks and 25 listed Fintech lenders in China during this watershed period. Among other things, traditional banks experienced rising operating costs, declining profit margins and softening loan quality. Consistent with a process of adaptation, traditional bank performance stabilized in the latter part of the study period (2018-19) after an initial period of decline. Study findings also highlight rising business and regulatory costs for Fintech providers over the course of the study frame. A marked deterioration in online lenders’ Special Mention and Non-Performing Loan (SML & NPL) positions arose during the period. Within the traditional bank group, smaller entities with fewer growth options and greater foreign ownership fared worst in prudential terms. Traditional banks’ financial and prudential performance also declines with time since IPO. Relative to joint stock commercial, city and rural banks, state-owned lenders registered more resilient performance, especially in relation to asset quality. In a final area, we construct a categorical Fintech proficiency variable for China's established banks. Our preliminary evidence suggests such proficiencies help stabilize SML and NPL rates and support financial returns. Overall, we offer major contribution to the banking literature by analyzing the financial and prudential performance of both incumbent and emerging lenders in one of the world’s most dynamic Fintech settings.

Ownership complexity and loan quality: Evidence for listed commercial banks in Vietnam

This paper examines the relationship among aspects of bank ownership complexity, including ownership dispersion and type, and the quality of bank loan portfolio. The data used for analysis is an unbalanced panel consisting of 13 listed commercial banks in Vietnam for the period of 2010 - 2019. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is used as an indicator of loan quality. The results showed that ownership dispersion, calculation based on the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index of large shareholding, improves the loan quality. Foreign ownership is also found to have positive impact on the loan quality. However, there is no relationship established between government ownership and loan quality.

Ownership structure and loan quality of deposit money banks in Nigeria

Purpose - This study examined the effect of Ownership Structure (Management Shareholding and Ownership Concentration) on the loan quality (LDR) of banks in Nigeria for a period of 10 years (2008-2017). The study utilized data extracted from the annual reports of the fourteen (14) studied banks.Method - Robustness tests were carried out to determine: the existence or otherwise of multi-collinearity, fitness of the model and appropriate regression analysis for the study. Descriptive statistics, correlation and Fixed Effect GLS regression were used to describe and analyze the data.Result - The study found that, ownership structure (ownership concentration and management shareholding) has significant negative effect on loan quality of banks in Nigeria.Implication - The implications of this research is that increased ownership concentration as well as management shareholding can strengthen banks’ loan quality owing to reduced proportion of depositors funds used to finance loan. This could spur confidence in the bank by the general public with regards to the safety of their deposits.Originality - This study is different from other studies that concentrated on the use of ownership structure in relations to various financial performance measurements such as ROA, ROE, NPM among other. In this study, effort was made to consider the financial health of banks owing to the nature of their business (loan).

The Vanishing Interest Income of Chinese Banks

Chinese banks likely have more nonperforming loans (NPLs) than officially reported. Banks’ NPLs often deviate from Benford's law. As hidden NPLs earn no interest income, loan quality problems may erode the gross interest income of banks. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the interest income of a hypothetical profit-maximizing Chinese bank with no credit quality problems. Taking the deviation of actual interest income from the calculated efficient income, we then attempt to reveal the amount of hidden NPLs in Chinese banks. Our results uncover a substantial weakening in the quality of Chinese bank loan portfolios in 2016.

The Potential for Biases in Resolving Loan Problems

This paper describes how behavioral biases influence the resolution of financial covenant violations. Prior literature documents that violation waivers are common; however, there is a lack of discussion on the determinants that lead loan officers to waive covenant violations. We rely on the escalation of commitment bias (or the sunk cost phenomenon) to discuss how loan officers may become attached to a selected course of action and fail to incorporate new information, increasing the likelihood of covenant waivers. We explain the implications of this bias on bank financial reports by detailing how accounting links loan quality to bank financial statements. We further draw on the psychology literature to offer potential solutions to mitigate overcommitment in the context of loan officers. Future research can examine the extent to which loan officers knowingly or unknowingly steer away from rational decision-making. This study has practical implications as users of bank financial reports, including investors, auditors, examiners, and bank managers, learn about processes and challenges on how accounting mechanics link bank loan portfolios to financial statements.

A predictive indicator using lender composition for loan evaluation in P2P lending

Most loan evaluation methods in peer-to-peer (P2P) lending mainly exploit the borrowers’ credit information. However, the present study presents the maturity-based lender composition score, which exploits the investment capability of a group of lenders who fund the same loan, to enhance the P2P loan evaluation. More specifically, we extract lenders’ profiles in terms of performance, risk, and experience by quantifying their investment history and develop our loan evaluation indicator by aggregating the profiles of lenders in the composition. To measure the ability of a lender for continuous improvement in P2P investment, we introduce lender maturity to capture this evolvement and incorporate it into the aggregation process. Our empirical study demonstrates that the maturity-based lender composition score can serve as an effective indicator for identifying loan quality and be included in other commonly used loan evaluation models for accuracy improvement.

Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

GDP growth as a bank loan quality determinant

Past financial crises and recessions have revealed the importance of the economy’s condition for the loan quality. Macroeconomic determinants of the non-performing loans have been attracting considerable attention in recent years. The aim of this paper is to organize and summarize studies examining the role of GDP growth and its impact on bank loan quality. This approach reveals the research problem which is to specify if there exists a statistically significant relationship between economic growth and the level of non-performing loans. It is equally important to determine the direction of this link. By appealing to common knowledge, the research hypothesis states that an increase in economic activity results in improving loan quality. To verify the hypothesis, the analysis of the relevant literature and the methods of verbal as well as tabular description have been applied. Empirical results on the link between the macroeconomic environment and the level of non-performing loans appear to be quite conclusive. It has been found that an economic expansion generally improves the loan quality. This broadly proven relationship is in line with many studies which confirm the borrowers’ increased willingness to repay debts in a favourable economic environment. Far less frequently, the macroeconomic activity leads to future bank losses. Additionally, some studies do not provide any statistically significant effect of GDP growth on the loan quality.

The impact of foreign direct investment inflows on nonperforming loans: the case of UAE

The banking sector is at risk of worsening loan quality, which is a major threat to the financial system’s stability. The impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is empirically investigated in this study. The data from 2008 to 2017 are collected and analyzed through the ordinary least squares (OLS) technique. The findings reveal that FDI inflows reduced the size of NPLs during the economic crisis. Also, the combined effect of higher FDI inflows and bank efficiency reduced the size of NPLs for banks, while the combined effect of FDI inflows and better institutions, such as strong regulatory quality, did not reduce the size of NPLs but rather increased the size of NPLs. The findings have implications and contribute to the literature to establish a relationship between FDI inflows and NPLs by examining the relationship between FDI inflows and NPLs in the context of banks in the UAE.