Automated fire risk evaluation of electrical installations in the man-machine system

The article considers approaches to the formation of a system of criteria for assessing the electrical installations fire condition of the agricultural and industrial complex. Based on the analysis of the literature, the conclusion is made about the appropriateness of the use of expert assessments. To implement the decision, a group of experts was assembled, on the basis of whose knowledge a list of 42 parametersζ characterizing the fire condition of the electrical installation was determined. To identify the relationships and form a method for calculating the estimated value of fire risk, experts assessed the fire condition of 70 electrical installations of the agricultural and industrial complex of the region. A knowledge base was formed from the resulting values. As a method of data analysis, it was decided to use neural networks, but the available sample is not sufficient for high-quality training of a neural network. Therefore, the correlation method and the principal component method were considered, and based on the calculations, it was decided to use a training sample consisting of 6 principal components for training a neural network. A neural network was trained on these data and the values of the average error were obtained sufficiently low, which may indicate sufficient accuracy of the generated model. The article also presents a conceptual scheme of a software package for automating calculations in accordance with the developed model.

البنية العاملية لمقياس كفاءة المواجهة باستخدام التحليل العاملي الاستكشافي والتوكيدي لدى طلبة الجامعة

مستخلص البحث هدف البحث الحالي التعرف على البنية العاملية لمقياس كفاءة المواجهة باستعمال التحليل العاملي الاستكشافي والتوكيدي على طلبة الجامعة ، ولتحقيق هدف البحث قام الباحث ببناء مقياس كفاءة المواجهة بالاعتماد على نظرية ويجنلد ويونج (Wagnild & Young,1993) كاطار نظري للمقياس اذ صاغ الباحث (25) فقرة موزعة على خمسة مجالات لكفاءة المواجهة وهي (الاعتماد الذاتي، المثابرة، الاتزان، المعنى، العزلة الوجودية ) وبواقع (5) فقرات لكل مجال ، تم تطبيق المقياس على عينة من طلبة جامعة بغداد بلغ عددها (600) طالب وطالبة وبعد ادخال البيانات لبرنامج (spss) خضعت البيانات الناتجة عن التطبيق الى التحليل العاملي الاستكشافي بطريقة المكونات الأساسية (Principal Component Method) ، وبتدوير العوامل على محاور متعامدة بطريقة (Varimax)، اسفرت النتائج عن وجود عامل واحد تتشبع فيه كافة فقرات المقياس اذ بلغ جذره الكامن (8.613) وفسر نسبه (34.452) من التباين ، ثم اجرى الباحث التحليل العاملي التوكيدي على نموذج وضعه الباحث بالاعتماد على الاطار النظري للمقياس وقد تطابقت نتائج التحليل مع الانموذج الذي وضعه الباحث ، وفي ضوء نتائج البحث قام الباحث بوضع مجموعة من الاستنتاجات والتوصيات والمقترحات.

A model for assessing the digital transformation readiness for Vietnamese SMEs

The paper aims to develop an econometric model for the routine diagnosis of enterprises' level of readiness for digital transformation (DT) on the example of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Vietnam. The use of questionnaires allowed obtaining quantitative estimates of SMEs' level of readiness for DT in Vietnam. Factor analysis with the principal component method determines the list of factors of SMEs' readiness for DT. The ranges of the level of preparedness in Vietnam were determined, resulting in the classification of enterprises in the groups of "Newcomers," "Learners," and "Leaders" according to their use of digital technology and smart manufacturing. The integral index made it possible to quantify the impact of DT's readiness on SMEs' sustainability. The study results revealed that the nature of the impact depends on the level of SMEs' readiness for DT.

Adaptación y propiedades psicométricas del inventario de depresión de beck (bdi-ii) en adolescentes ecuatorianos

El Inventario de Depresión de Beck (BDI-II) es uno de los instrumentos más empleados a nivel clínico e investigativo para evaluar la depresión. Objetivo. Adaptar y validar el BDI-II para su uso en la identificación de síntomas depresivos en población adolescente de Ecuador. Método. Estudio instrumental orientado a obtener la adaptación cultural, evidencias de validez y fiabilidad del (BDI-II). Participaron 871 adolescentes entre 13 y 18 años de edad seleccionados por muestreo no probabilístico. La validez del contenido del instrumento se evaluó mediante criterio de jueces y cálculo del Coeficiente de concordancia W de Kendall. Se realizó Análisis Factorial a través del Método de Componentes Principales. La asociación entre variables se analizó con el Coeficiente de correlación de Rho de Spearman. Para evaluar la validez convergente del (BDI-II) se empleó la Escala de Desesperanza de Beck (BHS) y la Escala de Valoración del Estado de Ánimo (EVEA). Resultados. El análisis factorial evidenció la existencia de una matriz de dos factores que explicó el 43.12% de la varianza total observada. Se obtuvieron evidencias favorables sobre validez y consistencia interna del instrumento (a= .86). Conclusiones. La versión ecuatoriana del BDI-II posee estructura bifactorial consistente con la versión original y adaptaciones precedentes realizadas al instrumento en otros países de habla hispana. Es apto para ser utilizado en el diagnóstico de síntomas depresivos en población adolescente en el contexto ecuatoriano. The Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) is one of the most widely used clinical and research instruments to assess depression. Objective. To adapt and validate the BDI-II for its use in the identification of depressive symptoms in the adolescent population of Ecuador. Method. Instrumental study oriented to obtain the cultural adaptation, validity and reliability evidences of the BDI-II. A total of 871 adolescents between 13 and 18 years of age selected by non-probabilistic sampling participated. The content validity of the instrument was evaluated by means of judges' criteria and calculation of Kendall's W concordance coefficient. Factorial analysis was performed using the Principal Component Method. The association between variables was analyzed with Spearman's Rho correlation coefficient. The Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) and the Mood Rating Scale (EVEA) were used to evaluate the convergent validity of the BDI-II. Results. Factor analysis showed the existence of a two-factor matrix that explained 43.12% of the total variance observed. Favorable evidence was obtained on the validity and internal consistency of the instrument (a= .86). Conclusions. The Ecuadorian version of the BDI-II has a bifactorial structure consistent with the original version and previous adaptations made to the instrument in other Spanish-speaking countries. It is suitable for use in the diagnosis of depressive symptoms in the Ecuadorian adolescent population.

Association between dietary patterns and glycemic control in a middle-aged Chinese population

Objective: The present work was performed to analyze the association of dietary patterns with glycemic control (hemoglobin(Hb)A1c<7%) in a large group of Chinese adults aged between 45 and 59 years. Design: Habitual dietary intakes in the preceding 12 months were assessed by well-trained interviewers using a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire(FFQ). Factor analysis with principal component method was used to obtain the dietary patterns, and the associations between dietary patterns and glycemic control were determined using multivariable logistic regression models. Poor glycemic control was defined as HbA1c≥7.0. Setting: Despite decades of research, data on the relationship between dietary patterns and glycemic control(HbA1c<7%) in China are sparse. Participants: A total of 1739 participants aged 45-59 years from Hangzhou were included in the final analysis. Results: Three dietary patterns were ascertained and labeled as traditional southern Chinese, Western, and grains-vegetables patterns. After controlling of the possible confounders, participants in the highest quartile of Western pattern scores had greater odds ratio(OR) for HbA1c≥7.0(OR=1.05; 95% confidence interval(CI):1.000-1.095; P=0.048) than did those in the lowest quartile. Compared with those in the lowest quartile of grains-vegetables pattern, participants in the highest quartile had lower OR for HbA1c≥7.0(OR=0.82; 95% CI:0.720-0.949; P=0.038). Besides, no significant relationship between the traditional southern Chinese pattern and HbA1c≥7.0 was observed(P>0.05). Conclusions: This study indicated that the Western pattern was associated with a higher risk, and the grains-vegetables pattern was associated with a lower risk for HbA1c≥7.0. Future prospective studies are needed to confirm our findings.

SIBERIAN CLUSTERS: IMPACT ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY

An attempt is made to answer the question: have there been any positive shifts in the economy of the regions in the territory of which economic clusters have formed and are forming by 2020. Data from various sources on the number of clusters in the country and in the Siberian Federal District are presented. Shifts are estimated using generalized indicators calculated by the principal component method. As the initial data for the calculations, the indicators presented in the statistical collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators” for the period from 2005 to 2018. The results obtained for the Siberian regions were compared for two years of the period under review: 2014 and 2018. Conclusions about the level of influence of cluster activities on the economy of the regions were carried out by changing the positions of the regions in their general list. As the analysis of the results of the component analysis showed for the Siberian regions under consideration, either maintaining positions or losing them in the direction of lowering the rating of the regions was characteristic. The exception was Krasnoyarsk Territory, which showed positive shifts in three of the four components. For some components, positive shifts could be seen in the Altai Territory and the Novosibirsk Region. An attempt to determine the full impact of the activity of clusters on the economy of the regions only according to available state statistics did not lead to the desired results.

Selection of Elite Genotypes of Coffee arabica L. to Produce Specialty Coffees

This study aimed to evaluate the cup quality of Coffea arabica elite genotypes submitted to wet processing. C. arabica elite genotypes, which were grouped according to their genealogy: Bourbon, Paraíso Germplasm, and Resistant to Rust. Coffees were sent to wet processing to obtain fully washed coffee. After processing and drying the coffees were subjected to cup quality analysis according to the methodology of the Association of Special Coffees (SCA). To characterize and discriminate the genealogical groups the data were submitted to chemometric analysis, Principal Component Method (PCA) and Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA). The PCA was effective in presenting an overview of the data, demonstrating the variables that most contributed to the analysis response. However, the PCA was not efficient to group genotypes according to their genealogical origin, based on chemometric data, as it is an unsupervised analysis. Even though most of the samples were classified correctly, the PLS-DA model created has not yet managed to correctly classify the genotypes of the Paraíso germplasm group. The C. arabica elite genotypes evaluated have the potential to produce special coffees, especially on the genotypes Paraíso 2, H493-1-2-10 and UFV-7158 with scores equal to or above 90 points.

Leukocyte blood composition of Naturix natrix (Serpentes: Colubridae) in the Mordovian State Nature Reserve (Russia)

The state of the grass snake (Natrix natrix) population in the Mordovian State Nature Reserve was assessed using the hematological approach. The leukocyte blood count was estimated together with calculation of the associated leukocyte indices (neutrophil:lymphocyte (N:L), eosinophil:lymphocyte (E:L), heterophil:eosinophil (H/E) and heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios). The surface area of leukocytes (heterophils, basophils, eosinophils, azurophils, monocytes, and lymphocytes) was measured. The leukocyte blood composition of Natrix natrix was characterized by the predominance of agranulocytes, and the granulocyte fraction was 31– 37% (u = 1.99, p = 0.04). The population pattern of the leukocyte blood composition of Natrix natrix was as follows: heterophils – 8.07±0.6%, basophils – 12.33±0.95%, eosinophils – 8.33±0.65%, azurophils – 5.25±0.53%, monocytes – 9.77±0.42%, and lymphocytes – 56.22±1.7%. According to the averaged area, the leukocytes were arranged in the following order: eosinophils – monocytes – azurophils, basophils – heterophils – lymphocytes. The diameter of the largest cells (eosinophils) was (17.5±2.42) μm. The smallest lymphocytes had diameters within (7.22±1.21) μm. The absence of any differences in the quantitative content of all types of granulocytes and agranulocytes in the blood of the grass snake from different parts of the reserve indicated a comparable level of impact and the identity of the physiological mechanisms of adaptation that occur in the body of animals in protected habitat conditions. Most of the leukocyte integral indices revealed the same type of variability in the parameters of the white blood cell system of the Natrix natrix in three areas of the reserve, with the exception of an increased value of the heterophiles/lymphocytes ratio in the sample from the village Pushta. The increase in this indicator made it possible to draw a conclusion about the stress effect on the individuals of this sample. The principal component method was used to differentiate the samples of the grass snake with a more complete quantitative description of the leukocyte composition of the objects of study; the results obtained are presented in a visual, integrated and generalized form. The use of the principal component method made it possible to combine samples of Natrix natrix with similar indicators of leukocyte composition, as well as to identify a population of Natrix natrix that differs in its indicators in the urbanized territory of the Samara region. The blood pattern and the dynamics of blood leukocyte indices reflected the active response of the Natrix natrix body to the complex of environmental factors of the habitat on the territory of the Mordovian State Nature Reserve.

ON THE ISSUE OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF REGIONAL STATE PROGRAMS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE EDUCATION DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM OF THE ALTAI TERRITORY)

The article discusses the problems of improving strategic planning in the context of methodological support for the development of state regional programs. On the example of the State Program «Development of Education in the Altai Territory», the expediency and the possibility of a preliminary (prior to the approval of the document) assessment of the feasibility of the development goals set in regional state programs, assessment of the necessary resources to achieve them, determination of the values of indicators of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are shown. The article discusses a mechanism for assessing the effectiveness of a specific program using integral indicators and economic and mathematical modeling. The values of the integral indicators are determined using the principal component method for the base and final year of the program and are included in the model in the form of constraints within which the calculated values are determined. The difference between the basic and calculated values of the integral indicators with strict equality of the sought and software funds shows the degree of the program’s feasibility.