Forecasting the Macroeconomy with Current Financial Market Information in Europe and the Us

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juha Junttila
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Market Information ◽  
The Us

Noisy information and stock market returns

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 338-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Li
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Average Risk ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Noisy Information ◽  
The Us

Purpose This paper aims to study whether noisy public information that investors receive about the expected aggregate dividend growth rate can help better understand the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market. Design/methodology/approach This paper considers a dynamic asset pricing model with a representative agent, who cannot observe the expected growth rate of dividends and must learn its value by using noisy information. In addition, this paper presents a simple model for noisy information calibration. Findings With a coefficient of relative risk aversion below 10 and the time impatience parameter between 0 and 1, the calibrated model is able to yield an average risk-free interest rate, equity premium and stock return volatility that are close to the stylized facts in the US financial market. Originality/value First, this paper presents a different equilibrium model with a simple “catching up with the Joneses” preference and noisy information. Second, this paper develops a simple calibration procedure to calibrate the information process to study whether the calibrated model can help explain the large average equity premium and stock return volatility in the US financial market data.

scholarly journals Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on Geopolitical Risk. Evidence from BRIC Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-496
Author(s):  
Imtiaz Arif ◽  
Amna Sohail Rawat ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Estimation Technique ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asymmetric Relation ◽  
The Relationship

This paper estimates the relationship between US economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk in the BRIC economies.1 Due to the assumption of a non-linear and asymmetric relation between US economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk of BRIC countries, a nonparametric estimation technique, Quantile on Quantile approach has been used for empirical analysis. The empirical results revealed that the relationship between the US economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk of BRIC economies is heterogeneous in nature. We noted that economic policy uncertainty in the US is negatively related to geopolitical risk in Chinese and Russian economies. However, for Indian and Brazilian economies US economic policy uncertainty is positively related to geopolitical risk. The outcomes of the study will be helpful for the investors and financial market players for taking investment decisions. It will also benefit the legislators and policymakers in making policies that could make their respective economies insulated from foreign policy risks.

Blockchain adoption will grow amid bitcoin volatility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Market Capitalisation ◽  
Swiss Stock Exchange

Subject Crypto market dynamics. Significance The market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies fell to below 250 billion dollars on April 6 from a record high of 827 billion on January 7. Greater regulation, coupled with more volatile global equity markets and the April 15 US tax filing deadline had prompted substantial cryptocurrency selling. However, the valuation has since recovered to more than 325 billion dollars, supported by the US deadline passing, a seminal paper on April 10 by Blossom Finance declaring bitcoin investment allowable under Sharia law and, most importantly, interest in uses for blockchain continuing to grow. Impacts Many crypto hedge funds have shut, many ICOs have failed and this will continue, but among the blockchain firms there will be big successes. The Swiss stock exchange plans to launch a cryptocurrency version of the Swiss franc; Switzerland will expand as an ICO hub. The rise in financial market volatility since February will intensify and persist as global trade tensions are increasing.

scholarly journals The Spillover and Transmission of Chinese Financial Markets Risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Sha Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financial Stress Index

After the 2008 financial crisis, the whole world financial markets became more fluctuates, the same to China also. It is necessary to pay great attention to high volatility problem in Chinese market, and also the uncertainty problem, risk accumulation and spillover effect come along with it. This paper calculates stock market return and builds financial stress index to explore the risk spillover effect. Empirical results show that the Chinese financial market have higher volatility than other countries. The Chinese stock market had higher dynamic market co-movement with international financial markets after 2008 financial crisis. What’s more, this article also finds the financial risk spreads between China and US. When the US financial stress index increases, China's financial stress index experiences a larger increase. However, after the change in China's financial stress index, the US financial stress index has no obvious trend of change. So we should pay more attention to periods of Chinese financial market risk and its spillover.

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