Comparison and Analysis of Pipeline Failure Statistics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio B. Cunha
Keyword(s):  
Human Action ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Failure Statistics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Comparison And Analysis ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Type Of Failure

Failure statistics for onshore pipelines transporting oil, refined products and natural gas from the USA, Canada and Europe are compared. Failure data from Brazilian pipelines are presented and included in the comparison. Failure rates for internal and external corrosion, human action and natural forces are analyzed and the expected failure rate for each failure mechanism is indicated. The effects of relevant construction and environmental factors on the failure rates are studied and mean trends are obtained. Furthermore, the sizes of the holes observed in each type of failure are also compared. Finally, the probability of ignition after a failure in gas and liquid pipelines is evaluated. This study may serve as basis for the estimation of failure frequency, hole size and probability of ignition for hazard liquids and gas pipelines.

A Methodology for the Prediction of Pipeline Failure Frequency Due to External Interference

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lyons ◽  
J. V. Haswell ◽  
P. Hopkins ◽  
R. Ellis ◽  
N. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Damage Mechanism ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Mechanics Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Operational Failure

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) is developing supplements to the UK pipeline codes BSI PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1. These supplements will provide a standardized approach for the application of quantified risk assessment to pipelines. UKOPA has evaluated and recommended a methodology: this paper covers the background to, and justification of, this methodology. The most relevant damage mechanism which results in pipeline failure is external interference. Interference produces a gouge, dent or a dent-gouge. This paper describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the probability failure of pipelines containing dent and gouge damage and contains predictions of failure frequency obtained using the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodologies FFREQ and operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The failure model and prediction methodology are explained and typical results are presented and discussed.

Analysis of Historical Failure Rates to Improve Risk Algorithms

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Desjardins ◽  
Kar Mun Cheng ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam ◽  
Boon Ong ◽  
Pauline Kwong
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Diagnostic Tool ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data

As part of its ongoing continuous improvement efforts, TransCanada has analyzed the system-wide historical failure data to understand trends and benchmark risk algorithms. The analysis of historical in-service and hydrostatic-test failures is a good diagnostic tool to assess threats to the pipeline system. This knowledge and understanding can be used to build risk algorithms. Quantification of failure rates also enables risk values among different threats and along the pipeline to be benchmarked appropriately. This paper focuses on the assessment of the expected failure frequency of the pipeline to SCC and corrosion.

A Model to Estimate the Failure Rates of Offshore Pipelines

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vania De Stefani ◽  
Peter Carr
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Burial Depth ◽  
Operational Experience ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data

Pipelines are subjected to several threats which can cause failure of the line, such as external impact, mechanical defects, corrosion and natural hazards. In particular, offshore operations present a unique set of environmental conditions and adverse exposure not observed in a land environment. For example, offshore pipelines located near harbor areas and in major shipping lanes are likely to be exposed to the risk of damage from anchor and dropped object impact. Such damage may result in potential risk to people and the environment, and significant repair costs. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a method which is often used in the oil and gas industry to predict the level of risk. In QRA calculations the frequency of an incident is often assessed by a generic failure frequency approach. Generic failure frequencies derived from local incident databases are largely used in pipeline risk assessments. As a result, risk assessments for offshore pipelines may not reflect accurately operational experience for a specific pipeline or region of operation. In addition, a better understanding of the causes and characteristics of pipeline failure should provide important information to improve inspection and maintenance activity for existing pipelines and to aid in selection of design criteria for new pipelines. This paper presents an analysis of the failure data from various pipelines databases to see if there is a common trend regarding failure rates, and failure-rate dependence on pipeline parameters. A breakdown of the causes of failure has been carried out. The effect on failure frequency of factors such as pipeline age, location, diameter, wall thickness, steel grade, burial depth, and fluid transported have been investigated and are discussed. The objective of this paper is to provide a guideline for the determination of failure frequency for offshore pipelines and to describe a new model developed for use within BP for this purpose. This model uses historical databases and predictive methods to develop failure frequencies as a function of a range of influencing parameters.

North Sea Mooring Systems: How Reliable Are They?

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Will Brindley ◽  
Andrew P. Comley
Keyword(s):  
Continental Shelf ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Mooring Line ◽  
Mooring System ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Floating Structure ◽  
Strength Capacity ◽  
Failure Statistics ◽  
Overall Reliability

In recent years a number of high profile mooring failures have emphasised the high risk nature of this element of a floating structure. Semi-submersible Mobile Offshore Drilling Units (MODUs) operating in the harsh North Sea environment have experienced approximately 3 mooring failures every 2 years, based on an average population of 34 units. In recognition of the high mooring failure rates, the HSE has introduced recommendations for more stringent mooring strength requirements for units operating on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) [17]. Although strength requirements are useful to assess the suitability of a mooring design, they do not provide an insight into the question: what is the reliability of the mooring system? This paper aims to answer this question by evaluating failure statistics over the most recent decade of available data. Mooring failure rates are compared between the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS), the UKCS, and with industry code targets to understand how overall reliability is related to the strength capacity of a mooring system. The failure statistics suggest that a typical MODU operating in the UKCS would experience a mooring line failure in heavy weather approximately every 20 operating years. This failure rate appears to be several orders of magnitude greater than industry targets used to calibrate mooring codes. Despite the increased strength requirements for the NCS, failure rates do not appear to be lower than the UKCS. This suggests that reliability does not correlate well with mooring system strength. As a result, designing to meet the more rigorous HSE requirements, which would require extensive upgrades to existing units, may not significantly increase mooring system reliability. This conclusion needs to be supported with further investigation of failure statistics in both the UKCS and NCS. In general, work remains to find practical ways to further understand past failures and so improve overall reliability.

scholarly journals Surgical Outcomes In The Frequency, Etiology, Direction, Severity (feds) Classification System For Shoulder Instability

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3_suppl2) ◽  
pp. 2325967120S0012
Author(s):  
Justin A. Magnuson ◽  
Brian R. Wolf ◽  
Kevin J. Cronin ◽  
Cale A. Jacobs ◽  
Shannon Ortiz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shoulder Instability ◽  
Surgical Outcomes ◽  
Anterior Dislocation ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Glenohumeral Instability ◽  
Initial Event ◽  
Common Category ◽  
Patient Reported ◽  
Type Of Failure

Objectives: The Frequency, Etiology, Direction, Severity (FEDS) system is a reliable and reproducible classification of glenohumeral instability. Frequency is defined as Solitary (1), Occasional (2-5), or Frequent (>5) episodes per year; etiology as Traumatic or Atraumatic; direction as Anterior, Posterior, or Inferior; and severity as a Subluxation or Dislocation. 36 total combinations are possible, named by the first letter of each variable in order. The purpose of this descriptive study was to investigate epidemiology, surgical outcomes, and failure using FEDS in patients undergoing surgery in a large multicenter cohort of prospectively enrolled patients. Methods: 1204 patients undergoing surgery were assigned to FEDS categories. Two-year follow-up at time of analysis was available for 629 patients (85.7% of those eligible based on date of surgery). Those categories consisting of at least 5% of patients were further analyzed by patient reported outcomes (PROs) and failure rates for a total of 466 patients. PROs included American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score (ASES), Western Ontario Shoulder Instability index (WOSI), and Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation (SANE). Failure benchmarks included rates of recurrent subluxation, dislocation, and revision surgery. Results: Sixteen categories represented at least one percent of patients. Occasional Traumatic Anterior Dislocation (OTAD) was the most common category with 16.4% of patients. Five other anterior categories (STAS, OTAS, FTAS, STAD, FTAD) and one posterior category (STPS) represented at least 5%. PROs and failure rates for anterior categories are summarized in Figure 1. PROs improved significantly for each category. A downward trend in WOSI and ASES was noted in particular with increasing frequency of the dislocation groups. The highest rates of each type of failure occurred in the occasional and frequent groups for both dislocation and subluxation. Low rates of failure occurred in STPS, with 17.9% reporting subluxation, 3.6% dislocation, and no revisions. Conclusion: While overall success was good, different FEDS categories showed varying degrees of improvement and failure rates, indicating that the system can be used to provide prognostic insight for presurgical education. Overall, outcomes for traumatic anterior instability decreased with higher initial frequency, showing worse PROs and higher failure. Frequency appeared to have the greatest effect on outcomes. Early surgical intervention may be beneficial in preventing progression to more severe FEDS categories, with higher frequency having previously been associated with both higher rates of bone loss and greater time between initial event and surgical stabilization.

PRIORITIZATION OF PIPELINE REPLACEMENT BASED ON FAILURE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amarjit Singh ◽  
Xi Song
Keyword(s):  
Water Supply ◽  
Failure Rate ◽  
Quantitative Method ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Record Data ◽  
Water Pipelines ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Pipe Systems ◽  
Maintenance Schedules

The purpose of this paper is to prioritize water pipelines for replacement through the analysis of pipeline failure rates and reliability. By using actual pipe condition record data from Honolulu Board of Water Supply (BWS), the constant failure rate is recognized through Bathtub profile and used to calculate reliability. This paper provides the utility manager a quantitative method to evaluate and arrange pipeline renewal. It assists in determining maintenance schedules depending on the age and type of the pipe by plotting the corresponding failure rate against time. Reliability helps determine whether a certain group of pipes are within the acceptable practice threshold to signal replacement. In this paper, the analysis of four major types of pipe systems from BWS are conducted. With the data from fiscal year (FY) 2008, the failure rates are calculated, and the reliability of all pipelines are seen to be above 80%.

How Pooling Failure Data May Reverse Increasing Failure Rates

1995 ◽  
Vol 90 (432) ◽  
pp. 1416-1423 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Gurland ◽  
Jayaram Sethuraman
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Data

Application of In-Line Inspection and Failure Data to Reduce Subjectivity of Risk Model Scores for Uninspected Pipelines

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Beauregard ◽  
Aaron Woo ◽  
Terry Huang
Keyword(s):  
Subject Matter ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Subject Matter Experts ◽  
Assessment Data ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Direct Assessment ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Likelihood Model ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Integrity Assessments

Pipeline risk models are used to prioritize integrity assessments and mitigative actions to achieve acceptable levels of risk. Some of these models rely on scores associated with parameters known or thought to contribute to a particular threat. For pipelines without in-line inspection (ILI) or direct assessment data, scores are often estimated by subject matter experts and as a result, are highly subjective. This paper describes a methodology for reducing the subjectivity of risk model scores by quantitatively deriving the scores based on ILI and failure data. This method is applied to determine pipeline coating and soil interaction scores in an external corrosion likelihood model for uninspected pipelines. Insights are drawn from the new scores as well as from a comparison with scores developed by subject matter experts.

scholarly journals Research on a Safety Assessment Method for Leakage in a Heavy Oil Gathering Pipeline

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1340
Author(s):  
Peng Zhang ◽  
Xiangsu Chen ◽  
Chaohai Fan
Keyword(s):  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Heavy Oil ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Pipeline Failure

At present, the number of oil and gas gathering and transportation pipelines is numerous, and leakage accidents occur frequently. Each year, due to pipeline failure, there are immeasurable consequences for people and the environment around the affected pipelines. In order to reduce the risk of leakage accidents in heavy oil gathering pipelines and prevent the occurrence of major spills, it is of great significance to carry out safety assessments of them. However, failure data of these pipelines is seriously deficient and statistical methods used to evaluate pipeline safety are incompatible. Therefore, this paper proposes a risk assessment system for heavy oil gathering pipelines in the absence of failure data. Firstly, a Bayesian network (BN) for the leak safety evaluation of heavy oil gathering pipelines is established via mapping from a bow-tie (BT) model. Then, information diffusion theory is combined with fuzzy set theory to obtain the failure probability of each factor affecting the pipeline failure, and then the failure probability of the pipeline is obtained by the full probability formula. In addition, in order to assess the extent of consequences due to accidents, variable fuzzy set theory is used to comprehensively consider the consequences of the leakage of heavy oil gathering pipelines. Finally, the above two parts are combined to form a safety assessment system to realize risk management and control for pipelines, which is necessary to ensure the safety of heavy oil gathering pipelines.

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