Analysis of Historical Failure Rates to Improve Risk Algorithms

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Desjardins ◽  
Kar Mun Cheng ◽  
Shahani Kariyawasam ◽  
Boon Ong ◽  
Pauline Kwong
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Diagnostic Tool ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data

As part of its ongoing continuous improvement efforts, TransCanada has analyzed the system-wide historical failure data to understand trends and benchmark risk algorithms. The analysis of historical in-service and hydrostatic-test failures is a good diagnostic tool to assess threats to the pipeline system. This knowledge and understanding can be used to build risk algorithms. Quantification of failure rates also enables risk values among different threats and along the pipeline to be benchmarked appropriately. This paper focuses on the assessment of the expected failure frequency of the pipeline to SCC and corrosion.

A Model to Estimate the Failure Rates of Offshore Pipelines

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vania De Stefani ◽  
Peter Carr
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Burial Depth ◽  
Operational Experience ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Offshore Pipelines ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data

Pipelines are subjected to several threats which can cause failure of the line, such as external impact, mechanical defects, corrosion and natural hazards. In particular, offshore operations present a unique set of environmental conditions and adverse exposure not observed in a land environment. For example, offshore pipelines located near harbor areas and in major shipping lanes are likely to be exposed to the risk of damage from anchor and dropped object impact. Such damage may result in potential risk to people and the environment, and significant repair costs. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is a method which is often used in the oil and gas industry to predict the level of risk. In QRA calculations the frequency of an incident is often assessed by a generic failure frequency approach. Generic failure frequencies derived from local incident databases are largely used in pipeline risk assessments. As a result, risk assessments for offshore pipelines may not reflect accurately operational experience for a specific pipeline or region of operation. In addition, a better understanding of the causes and characteristics of pipeline failure should provide important information to improve inspection and maintenance activity for existing pipelines and to aid in selection of design criteria for new pipelines. This paper presents an analysis of the failure data from various pipelines databases to see if there is a common trend regarding failure rates, and failure-rate dependence on pipeline parameters. A breakdown of the causes of failure has been carried out. The effect on failure frequency of factors such as pipeline age, location, diameter, wall thickness, steel grade, burial depth, and fluid transported have been investigated and are discussed. The objective of this paper is to provide a guideline for the determination of failure frequency for offshore pipelines and to describe a new model developed for use within BP for this purpose. This model uses historical databases and predictive methods to develop failure frequencies as a function of a range of influencing parameters.

Comparison and Analysis of Pipeline Failure Statistics

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio B. Cunha
Keyword(s):  
Human Action ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Failure Statistics ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
Comparison And Analysis ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Type Of Failure

Failure statistics for onshore pipelines transporting oil, refined products and natural gas from the USA, Canada and Europe are compared. Failure data from Brazilian pipelines are presented and included in the comparison. Failure rates for internal and external corrosion, human action and natural forces are analyzed and the expected failure rate for each failure mechanism is indicated. The effects of relevant construction and environmental factors on the failure rates are studied and mean trends are obtained. Furthermore, the sizes of the holes observed in each type of failure are also compared. Finally, the probability of ignition after a failure in gas and liquid pipelines is evaluated. This study may serve as basis for the estimation of failure frequency, hole size and probability of ignition for hazard liquids and gas pipelines.

A Methodology for the Prediction of Pipeline Failure Frequency Due to External Interference

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lyons ◽  
J. V. Haswell ◽  
P. Hopkins ◽  
R. Ellis ◽  
N. Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Damage Mechanism ◽  
External Interference ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Mechanics Model ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Pipeline Failure ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Operational Failure

The United Kingdom Onshore Pipeline Operators Association (UKOPA) is developing supplements to the UK pipeline codes BSI PD 8010 and IGE/TD/1. These supplements will provide a standardized approach for the application of quantified risk assessment to pipelines. UKOPA has evaluated and recommended a methodology: this paper covers the background to, and justification of, this methodology. The most relevant damage mechanism which results in pipeline failure is external interference. Interference produces a gouge, dent or a dent-gouge. This paper describes the fracture mechanics model used to predict the probability failure of pipelines containing dent and gouge damage and contains predictions of failure frequency obtained using the gas industry failure frequency prediction methodologies FFREQ and operational failure data from the UKOPA fault database. The failure model and prediction methodology are explained and typical results are presented and discussed.

How Pooling Failure Data May Reverse Increasing Failure Rates

1995 ◽  
Vol 90 (432) ◽  
pp. 1416-1423 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Gurland ◽  
Jayaram Sethuraman
Keyword(s):  
Failure Rates ◽  
Failure Data

scholarly journals Application of FMEA in an Automatic Component Insertion Equipment in an Electronic Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 114-118
Author(s):  
Douglas da Silva Marques ◽  
João Gabriel Marinho Maciel ◽  
Marcelo Albuquerque de Oliveira ◽  
Gabriela de Mattos Veroneze ◽  
Dércio Luiz Reis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Action Research ◽  
Production Process ◽  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Equipment Failure ◽  
Electronic Industry ◽  
Failure Data

One of the consequences of globalization was an increase in the response between companies. In this way, companies increasingly seek continuous improvement using various mechanisms and tools aimed at improving their processes, products, and services, thus making them more competitive. In this scenario, FMEA stands out as a unique tool for detecting and reducing failures in products and processes in order to improve their confidence. This article is the result of the study of the application of the FMEA in an equipment to the production process of insertion of components. For this, action research was carried out, where equipment failure data was collected. As a result, a 5W2H action plan was prepared with the support of a GUT matrix to apply the recommended improvements in the FMEA.

A Stochastic Model for Piping Failure Frequency Analysis Using OPDE Data

2009 ◽  
Vol 131 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
X.-X. Yuan ◽  
M. D. Pandey ◽  
J. Riznic
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Pipe Failure ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Class 1

The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant-specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters. A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE Database.

Effect of Model Error on Reliability Analysis of Surface Cracks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Ibrahim ◽  
Karmun Doucette ◽  
Sherif Hassanien ◽  
Doug Langer
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Structural Integrity ◽  
Service Failure ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Normal Operation ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Failure Data

The application of reliability-based structural integrity enables the process of quantitative risk assessment as part of pipelines’ integrity management program (IMP). This paper explores two topics that present challenges in terms of the practical adoption of a reliability-based IMP. The first challenge is the balance between perceived and true risk when implementing a quantitative reliability-based integrity model. This is a cornerstone for building stakeholder confidence in the calculated probability of failure (PoF) which is applied to safety and economically driven integrity decisions. The second challenge is the assurance that all relevant sources of uncertainty have been incorporated, which is essential for ensuring an accurate representation of the risk of failure of the pipeline. The level of conservatism (i.e. sufficient margin of error to maintain safety) incorporated when addressing these challenges may create a situation where calculated PoFs become inflated; becoming disproportionate to the failure history and contradictory to the current safe operation of pipelines being modeled. Two different PoF calibration approaches are proposed as practical options to address these challenges. The first method calibrates model error using an operator’s in-service failure history (i.e. failures that occurred under normal operation). The second method uses a set of failure data (including hydrostatic test failures and in-service failures) as selected by the operator considering key factors to ensure adequate representation of their specific pipeline system. These options will be demonstrated by assessing the integrity reliability of a hypothetical pipeline system. This work is expected to help evaluate the feasibility of challenging current practices regarding practical inclusion of epistemic uncertainty in integrity reliability analysis of pipelines.

Common Components of Human Error in Design, Maintenance, or Operations

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph P. Balkey
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Other ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Near Misses ◽  
Calculated Frequency ◽  
Failure Frequency ◽  
Final Failure ◽  
The Difference

Often, public reports of accidents only identify the last, obvious failure or immediate cause of the accident. If human error is the immediate cause or final failure, further assessment of accident contributors may stop, and an enhanced training program is often determined to be the primary solution for preventing further accidents of this type. However, in many cases, the accident is the final result of many inputs, decisions, actions and inactions. To demonstrate this characteristic of accidents, the 20 stories in a publication titled “Set Phasers on Stun” have been categorized into action errors and planning errors that involve designers, mechanics, or operators. For each story, the hazard and the number of simultaneous failures are listed. Then two of the 20 stories are assessed in detail; one story involves an action error and the other one involves a planning error. In each of these two stories, the system is first described as it should operate and then its risk is quantitatively assessed to identify findings, lessons learned, recommendations, analogies to the other 18 stories, and applications. This paper has three immediate goals. One, to recognize the difference between an action error and a planning error. Two, to recognize that most accidents involve 2 to 4 simultaneous failures. Three, to appreciate that quantifying the failure frequency serves two benefits. Because it is usually difficult to find out exactly what happened after an accident, the calculated frequency can help confirm what actually happened. When various alternatives are recommended, it can also help to select the most economic ones. This paper has two long term goals. One, consider assessing the failure rates of near misses. By reducing near misses, larger accidents will be reduced. Two, consider assessing the failure rates of personal near misses because you know what actually happened.

scholarly journals Measure to succeed: How to improve employee participation in continuous improvement

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Jurburg ◽  
Elisabeth Viles ◽  
Martin Tanco ◽  
Ricardo Mateo ◽  
Alvaro Lleó
Keyword(s):  
Continuous Improvement ◽  
Diagnostic Tool ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Employee Participation ◽  
The State ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
People Development ◽  
Participation Process ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Purpose: Achieving employee participation in continuous improvement (CI) systems is considered as one of the success factors for the sustainability of those systems. Yet, it is also very difficult to obtain because of the interaction of many critical factors that affect employee participation. Therefore, finding ways of measuring all these critical factors can help practitioners manage the employee participation process accordingly.Design/methodology/approach: Based upon the existing literature, this paper presents a 4-Phase (9 steps) diagnostic tool to measure the main determinants associated with the implementation of CI systems affecting employee participation in improvement activities.Findings: The tool showed its usefulness to detect the main weaknesses and improvement opportunities for improving employee participation in CI through the application in two different cases.Practical implications: This diagnostic tool could be particularly interesting for companies adopting CI and other excellence frameworks, which usually include a pillar related to people development inside the organization, but do not include tools to diagnose the state of this pillar.Originality/value: This diagnostic tool presents a user’s perspective approach, ensuring that the weaknesses and improvement opportunities detected during the diagnose come directly from the users of the CI system, which in this case are the employees themselves. Given that the final objective is to identify reasons and problems hindering employee participation, adopting this user’s perspective approach seem more relevant than adopting other more traditional approaches, based on gathering information from the CI system itself or from the CI managers. 

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