Behavioral Experimentation and Game Theory in Engineering Systems Design

2015 ◽  
Vol 137 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenghui Sha ◽  
Karthik N. Kannan ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal

Game-theoretic models have been used to analyze design problems ranging from multi-objective design optimization to decentralized design and from design for market systems (DFMS) to policy design. However, existing studies are primarily analytical in nature, which start with a number of assumptions about the individual decisions, the information available to the players, and the solution concept (generally, the Nash equilibrium). There is a lack of studies related to engineering design, which rigorously evaluate the validity of these assumptions or that of the predictions from the models. Hence, the usefulness of these models to realistic engineering systems design has been severely limited. In this paper, we take a step toward addressing this gap. Using an example of crowdsourcing for engineering design, we illustrate how the analytical game-theoretic models and behavioral experimentation can be synergistically used to gain a better understanding of design situations. Analytical models describe what players with assumed behaviors and cognitive capabilities would do under specified conditions, and the behavioral experiments shed light on how individuals actually behave. The paper contributes to the design literature in multiple ways. First, to the best of our knowledge, it is a first attempt at integrated theoretical and experimental game-theoretic analysis in design. We illustrate how the analytical models can be used to design behavioral experiments, which, in turn, can be used to estimate parameters, refine models, and inform further development of the theory. Second, we present a simple experiment to understand behaviors of individuals in a design crowdsourcing problem. The results of the experiment show new insights on using crowdsourcing contests for design.

2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jitesh H. Panchal ◽  
Zhenghui Sha ◽  
Karthik N. Kannan

The primary motivation in this paper is to understand decision-making in design under competition from both prescriptive and descriptive perspectives. Engineering design is often carried out under competition from other designers or firms, where each competitor invests effort with the hope of getting a contract, attracting customers, or winning a prize. One such scenario of design under competition is crowdsourcing where designers compete for monetary prizes. Within existing literature, such competitive scenarios have been studied using models from contest theory, which are based on assumptions of rationality and equilibrium. Although these models are general enough for different types of contests, they do not address the unique characteristics of design decision-making, e.g., strategies related to the design process, the sequential nature of design decisions, the evolution of strategies, and heterogeneity among designers. In this paper, we address these gaps by developing an analytical model for design under competition, and using it in conjunction with a behavioral experiment to gain insights about how individuals actually make decisions in such scenarios. The contributions of the paper are two-fold. First, a game-theoretic model is presented for sequential design decisions considering the decisions made by other players. Second, an approach for synergistic integration of analytical models with data from behavioral experiments is presented. The proposed approach provides insights such as shift in participants' strategies from exploration to exploitation as they acquire more information, and how they develop beliefs about the quality of their opponents' solutions.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meixia Chen ◽  
Cong Zhang ◽  
Xiangfan Tao ◽  
Naiqi Deng

This paper studies the vibrational behavior and far-field sound radiation of a submerged stiffened conical shell at low frequencies. The solution for the dynamic response of the conical shell is presented in the form of a power series. A smeared approach is used to model the ring stiffeners. Fluid loading is taken into account by dividing the conical shell into narrow strips which are considered to be local cylindrical shells. The far-field sound pressure is solved by the Element Radiation Superposition Method. Excitations in two directions are considered to simulate the loading on the surface of the conical shell. These excitations are applied along the generator and normal to the surface of the conical shell. The contributions from the individual circumferential modes on the structural responses of the conical shell are studied. The effects of the external fluid loading and stiffeners are discussed. The results from the analytical models are validated by numerical results from a fully coupled finite element/boundary element model.


2018 ◽  
Vol 140 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish M. Chaudhari ◽  
Zhenghui Sha ◽  
Jitesh H. Panchal

Crowdsourcing is the practice of getting ideas and solving problems using a large number of people on the Internet. It is gaining popularity for activities in the engineering design process ranging from concept generation to design evaluation. The outcomes of crowdsourcing contests depend on the decisions and actions of participants, which in turn depend on the nature of the problem and the contest. For effective use of crowdsourcing within engineering design, it is necessary to understand how the outcomes of crowdsourcing contests are affected by sponsor-related, contest-related, problem-related, and individual-related factors. To address this need, we employ existing game-theoretic models, empirical studies, and field data in a synergistic way using the theory of causal inference. The results suggest that participants' decisions to participate are negatively influenced by higher task complexity and lower reputation of sponsors. However, they are positively influenced by the number of prizes and higher allocation to prizes at higher levels. That is, an amount of money on any following prize generates higher participation than the same amount of money on the first prize. The contributions of the paper are: (a) a causal graph that encodes relationships among factors affecting crowdsourcing contests, derived from game-theoretic models and empirical studies, and (b) a quantification of the causal effects of these factors on the outcomes of GrabCAD, Cambridge, MA contests. The implications of these results on the design of future design crowdsourcing contests are discussed.


Author(s):  
Youyi Bi ◽  
Jian Xie ◽  
Zhenghui Sha ◽  
Mingxian Wang ◽  
Yan Fu ◽  
...  

Customer preferences are found to evolve over time and correlate with geographical locations. Studying spatiotemporal heterogeneity of customer preferences is crucial to engineering design as it provides a dynamic perspective for a thorough understanding of preference trend. However, existing analytical models for demand modeling do not take the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of customer preferences into consideration. To fill this research gap, a spatial panel modeling approach is developed in this study to investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of customer preferences by introducing engineering attributes explicitly as model inputs in support of demand forecasting in engineering design. In addition, a step-by-step procedure is proposed to aid the implementation of the approach. To demonstrate this approach, a case study is conducted on small SUV in China’s automotive market. Our results show that small SUVs with lower prices, higher power, and lower fuel consumption tend to have a positive impact on their sales in each region. In understanding the spatial patterns of China’s small SUV market, we found that each province has a unique spatial specific effect influencing the small SUV demand, which suggests that even if changing the design attributes of a product to the same extent, the resulting effects on product demand might be different across different regions. In understanding the underlying social-economic factors that drive the regional differences, it is found that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, length of paved roads per capita and household consumption expenditure have significantly positive influence on small SUV sales. These results demonstrate the potential capability of our approach in handling spatial variations of customers for product design and marketing strategy development. The main contribution of this research is the development of an analytical approach integrating spatiotemporal heterogeneity into demand modeling to support engineering design.


Author(s):  
Vincent Chanron ◽  
Kemper Lewis ◽  
Yayoi Murase ◽  
Kazuhiro Izui ◽  
Shinji Nishiwaki ◽  
...  

Most complex systems, including engineering systems such as cars, airplanes, and satellites, are the results of the interactions of many distinct entities working on different parts of the design. Decentralized systems constitute a special class of design under distributed environments. They are characterized as large and complex systems divided into several smaller entities that have autonomy in local optimization and decision-making. A primary issue in decentralized design processes is to ensure that the designers that are involved in the process converge to a single design solution that is optimal and meets the design requirements, while being acceptable to all the participants. This is made difficult by the strong interdependencies between the designers, which are usually characteristic of such systems. This paper proposes a critical review of standard techniques to modeling and solving decentralized design problems, and shows mathematically the challenges created by having multiobjective subsystems. A method based on set-based design is then proposed to alleviate some of these challenging issues. An illustration of its applicability is given in the form of the design of a space satellite.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-117
Author(s):  
Dennis Collentine ◽  
Holger Johnsson

Current international agreements call for a significant reduction of nitrogen loads to the Baltic Sea. New measures to reduce nitrogen loads from the agricultural sector and an increased focus on cost efficiency will be needed to meet reduction targets. For policy design and evaluation it is important to understand the impact of weather on the efficiency of abatement measures. One new proposed policy is the use of crop permits based on weather normalized average leaching. This paper describes the use of the Spearman method to determine the efficiency of this policy with annual weather variation. The conclusion is that the values of the Spearman correlation coefficients in the study indicate that using average leaching for the individual crops on specific soil types for calculating crop permit requirements is an efficient policy. The Spearman method is demonstrated to be a simple useful tool for evaluating the impact of weather and is recommended for use in new studies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cécile Sarabian ◽  
Raphaël Belais ◽  
Andrew J. J. MacIntosh

Intense selection pressure from parasites on free-living animals has resulted in behavioral adaptations that help potential hosts avoid sources of infection. In primates, such “behavioral immunity” is expressed in different contexts and may vary according to the ecology of the host, the nature of the infectious agent, and the individual itself. In this study, we investigated whether avoidance of contaminated food was associated with reduced parasite infection in sanctuary-housed bonobos. To do this, we used bonobos’ responses to soil- and fecally-contaminated food in behavioral experiments, and then compared the results with an estimate of protozoan infection across individuals. We found that avoidance of contaminated food correlated negatively with Balantioides coli infection, a potentially pathogenic protozoan transmitted through the fecal-oral route. The association between avoidance responses and parasitism were most evident in experiments in which subjects were offered a choice of food items falling along a gradient of fecal contamination. In the case of experiments with more limited options and a high degree of contamination, most subjects were averse to the presented food item and this may have mitigated any relationship between feeding decisions and infection. In experiments with low perceived levels of contamination, most subjects consumed previously contaminated food items, which may also have obscured such a relationship. The behavioral immunity observed may be a consequence of the direct effects of parasites (infection), reflecting the first scale of a landscape of disgust: individual responses. Indirect effects of parasites, such as modulation of feeding decisions and reduced social interactions—and their potential trade-offs with physiological immunity—are also discussed in light of individual fitness and primate evolution. This study builds on previous work by showing that avoidance behaviors may be effective in limiting exposure to a wide diversity of oro-fecally transmitted parasites.


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