EU climate policy to face challenges beyond COP21

Significance Having tabled a relatively ambitious offer for COP21, the EU is seeking to recover its leading role in tackling climate change at the global level. Impacts The undemanding circumstances in which the EU achieved its 2020 targets will limit the political capital it might generate from doing so. The COP21 deal will shape France's international standing, in a field other than France's traditional military and security activities. If Poland obstructs strong EU post-COP21 climate change policies, it will further aggravate internal East-West relations. Energy policy could be contentious as early as the December 17 summit, as the EU takes first stock of COP21 while considering Nord Stream 2.

Significance Member states have asked the European Commission to spend the next nine months developing a plan containing “high impact and visible projects” to rival the BRI. While EU efforts to counter the BRI are not new, the political will has never been as strong as it is now. Impacts China will seek to make the BRI more attractive, such as by launching more initiatives to tackle climate change. Europe will remain distant from the US position on China, unless Germany gets a Green chancellor or Macron loses the 2022 election. The deterioration of the EU's relations with Hungary and Poland over rule-of-law issues could push those countries closer to China.


Significance Biden's strong support for transatlanticism and multilateralism augurs well for a more understanding and cooperative trading relationship with the EU and will bring an end to the persistent uncertainty associated with Donald Trump's presidency. Impacts US sanctions warnings against companies involved in building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will likely remain for some time. Biden's commitment to addressing climate change could enable Brussels and Washington to coordinate carbon border taxes. Member state divisions over China will prevent the EU from fully embracing Washington's tough position.


Significance A significant rise in Afghan refugees is unlikely over the coming weeks due to geographical barriers, but European governments are bracing themselves for a significant rise over the coming months. Greek Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi says the EU is not prepared for another migration crisis. Impacts With upcoming elections, Germany and France will be wary of taking in large numbers of refugees. Division over immigration could damage EU cooperation in other areas, such as climate change or fiscal policy. The strongest opposition to migration burden-sharing is likely to come from Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.


Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 5969
Author(s):  
Kateryna Yakovenko ◽  
Matúš Mišík

The COVID-19 pandemic appeared in the midst of developing the European Green Deal, the most ambitious project to decarbonise the EU’s economy to date. Among other issues, the project highlighted the challenges connected to the long-term role of natural gas as a fossil fuel in the European economy. Moreover, the changes to the gas architecture caused by the development of new import infrastructure (especially Nord Stream and its extension, which is currently under construction) put additional pressure on the transit countries, mainly of which are linked to the Brotherhood pipeline. These have been strong supporters of natural gas utilisation and harsh critics of new pipelines that circumvent their territories, as they consider energy transit to be an important part of their energy sectors. This research examines the political discourse on gas transit in Slovakia and Ukraine in order to identify the main arguments connected to these positions. The paper examines a total of 233 textual units from both countries for the period 2014–2018. It concludes that, while Ukraine sees transit predominantly through the lens of cooperation with the EU and other actors, the Slovak political discourse considers gas transit in terms of energy security and the availability of gas for the national economy.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Krzyżanowski

This article analyses European Union policy discourses on climate change from the point of view of constructions of identity. Articulated in a variety of policy-related genres, the EU rhetoric on climate change is approached as example of the Union’s international discourse, which, contrary to other areas of EU policy-making, relies strongly on discursive frameworks of international and global politics of climate change. As the article shows, the EU’s peculiar international – or even global – leadership in tackling the climate change is constructed in an ambivalent and highly heterogeneous discourse that runs along several vectors. While it on the one hand follows the more recent, inward-looking constructions of Europe known from the EU policy and political discourses of the 1990s and 2000s, it also revives some of the older discursive logics of international competition known from the earlier stages of the European integration. In the analysis, the article draws on the methodological apparatus of the Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA) in Critical Discourse Studies. Furthering the DHA studies of EU policy and political discourses, the article emphasises the viability of the discourse-historical methodology applied in the combined analysis of EU identity and policy discourses.


Significance The United States has already committed, in an unprecedented deal with China in November 2014, to reducing its emissions to 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2025 (an improvement on its previous 17% goal). China in return pledged that its emissions would peak around 2030. This agreement is a game-changer for combating global climate change, since the two countries are the world's largest sources of carbon emissions, together accounting for 40% of the total, and were not covered under the now-expired Kyoto Protocol. Impacts Washington is poised to reclaim its place, lost after Kyoto, as a leader in global efforts against climate change. US-China climate cooperation initiatives could serve as templates for other developing countries. There are new opportunities for trilateral cooperation involving the EU. Fears that the bilateral agreement makes the UNFCCC obsolete are unwarranted, but it could preclude more ambitious efforts.


Significance The change of president and government in late January has shifted the power balance in favour of the Socialist Party (BSP), but the centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) is still the stronger political force. The three most influential parties -- GERB, BSP and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) -- are all focused on preserving the political and economic status quo, and on opposing radical judicial reform as demanded by the EU. Pro-reform forces to the right of GERB are in disarray, while the nationalist parties are united and on the rise. Impacts GERB has yet to find itself a role that could win it another victory over the BSP, as in 2014. As the weaker party, the BSP will be more aggressive in exploiting anti EU sentiment. Long-anticipated judicial reform will remain elusive. The degree of Bulgaria's distance from Brussels will be influenced primarily by events and elections in Western Europe.


Subject The non-appearance of an expected EU anti-corruption report. Significance The European Commission’s cancellation of its second report on anti-corruption efforts across member-states and EU institutions removes a key benchmark against which to hold European governments to account at a time when several are attempting to roll back anti-corruption reforms and disable checks and balances. Given the political sensitivity of the first report, the move also feeds populist criticisms that the EU itself is prone to corruption and unwilling to expose itself to scrutiny. Impacts Populist governments appear to be learning from one another that they can remove limits on their power. This will allow interest groups to entrench their political and economic dominance, hindering economic growth in the long run. The US president’s attacks on parts of the media for ‘fake news’ may encourage use of anti-establishment rhetoric to discredit critics.


Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.


Significance The EU is still struggling to formulate a coordinated response to the migration crisis, but it has managed to make significant cuts in illegal immigration by tightening control of its external borders and reducing the number of irregular crossings of the Mediterranean. Impacts An EU-Africa summit in November will review measures to prevent people from trying to come to Europe in the first place. The number of people crossing the Mediterranean has fallen, but for each individual attempting the journey the risk of dying has increased. The sense of being abandoned by other EU countries could boost Euroscepticism in the run-up to next year’s election in Italy. Conflicts over migration policy are likely to deepen the east-west divide within the EU.


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