Kazakhstan hopes fuel supply problems will end in 2018

Significance Despite its status as a major oil producer, Kazakhstan has struggled to meet domestic demand for refined products since the 1990s. Unprecedented fuel shortages in October and November forced the authorities to import large amounts of petrol and diesel from Russia. Impacts The loans that paid for refinery modernisation will be have to be repaid from retail fuel prices. The absence of a common energy market in the Eurasian Economic Union will complicate price harmonisation. The government believes it can square expanding production with its commitments to the Russian-OPEC output cap.

Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.


Significance Officials in Kyrgyzstan have complained that the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has created problems instead of improving trade and investment prospects. Russia's recession has led to reduced inward investment and migrant remittances for Kyrgyzstan. In the new government appointed in April, the only major change was the prime minister. Impacts The government will attempt to revive economic ties trade with China since the EEU has proved to be no substitute. China may offer new loans as Russia can no longer afford 'political' assistance. The problems Kyrgyzstan has encountered with EEU accession may deter would-be member Tajikistan.


Subject Shifts in Russian foreign trade. Significance The dollar value of foreign trade rose last year as a result of strengthening global oil prices. Trade is shifting gradually to non-European, non-US locations, mainly in Asia and above all China. For imports, this trend is particularly marked for sanctioned items such as hi-tech electronics and for foodstuffs where Moscow has banned Western imports. Impacts The trade shift towards Asia should offer opportunities to pursue the government policy of 'de-dollarisation'. The dollar cannot be easily abandoned because of its importance to the oil trade. Economic relationships, new and old, will form a basis for Russian political engagement. Russia will promote free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and rapidly growing countries such as China and Vietnam.


Significance Disputes about fuel prices, as well as Belarusian concerns about Moscow's treatment of Ukraine, have marred the long-term Belarusian-Russian alignment. As head of the weaker state, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka has limited room for manoeuvre but has complained about Russia's behaviour and reversed his previous anti-Western stance, offering engagement and investment opportunities to EU states. Impacts Greater US and European willingness to engage with Moscow may undermine Belarusian attempts to emerge as a separate interlocutor. Stable or rising global energy prices will change the calculations in bilateral oil and gas disputes. The Eurasian Economic Union will struggle to develop integration because of suspicions about Moscow's intentions towards fellow members.


Subject Armenia's unexpected export boost. Significance Growth in the Armenian economy this year is attributable to a revival in exports, mainly to Russia, apparently due to that country's ban on Western food imports. Foreign investment and the funds sent home by expatriate workers are falling, affecting domestic demand. Membership of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has offered Armenia little protection from a region-wide downturn stemming from Russia's recession. Impacts Political tensions may resurface and lead to widespread protests. Improved ties with Iran will prompt a southward reorientation of exports and investment. Iran-facing economic strategies will be constrained by Russia's foreign policy interests.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 748-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirgul Nizaeva ◽  
Ali Uyar

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to comparatively analyze the corporate governance codes of transition economies, particularly five Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members (i.e. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia). Specifically, the convergence or divergence of these countries’ corporate governance codes among themselves as well as relative to the best practices of the UK Corporate Governance Code (UK Code) and the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance are investigated. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the existing literature on corporate governance with special focus on transition countries is reviewed. Afterwards, benchmarking the international best practices, based on main chapters and contents, the corporate governance codes of all countries in the sample are analyzed. Findings The paper finds that even though some principles of the corporate governance codes of the countries in the sample differ in some aspects, they do converge to some extent. However, high misalignments between the UK Code and the OECD Principles and the codes of selected countries in some aspects were found. Research limitations/implications The conclusion and implications of the study characterize the corporate governance of selected developing countries; thus, they might not be generalizable to other countries. Practical implications The codes of the countries in the sample should be revised, and more specifications regarding the stakeholder, board structure, its subcommittees, independence, diversity and transparency issues need to be addressed. Originality/value The paper comprehensively analyzes the contents of corporate governance codes of transition countries; from both practical and academic point of view, it was important gap that needed to be fulfilled.


Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.


Subject Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter could see a significant worsening of Russia's ties with the West. With the Donbas crisis threatening to erupt into open war as in 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk 2.0 process is strained to breaking-point. Recent months have seen the gradual deterioration of the February peace plan, with heavier skirmishing culminating in the recent battle for Maryinka. In Ukraine, the economic situation remains a major problem. In Central Asia, regional economies are suffering from Russia's slowdown, as some strengthen their integration with Russia as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).


Subject Outlook for the food and agriculture sectors. Significance Speaking in Astana in June, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev said the country's agricultural sector was expected to benefit from 16 billion dollars in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2021. This is foreseen in the 'Agribusiness-2020' strategic programme, which was adopted in February 2013. Agriculture and food processing remain key areas of Kazakhstan's economy, the former having traditionally absorbed a large amount of state subsidies. However, their future looks uncertain in light of Kazakhstan's accession to the WTO and its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Impacts Flooding the Kazakhstani market with cheap imports may lead to mass bankruptcies in domestic agri-business and spark social unrest. Corruption remains a serious obstacle to the efficient use of government-allocated funds to support agriculture and food processing. Investor interest in Kazakhstan's agriculture will remain limited because of internal constraints.


Significance In a bid to quell the protests, President Serzh Sargsyan has announced that the government will subsidise the increase until the completion of an independent audit into the operations of Russian-owned Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA). The 'No To Plunder' campaign, which has played a key role in the protests, is dissatisfied with the concession. The numbers of protestors have fallen sharply in recent days, but the government is becoming increasingly unpopular. Impacts Higher electricity costs will lead to a rise in inflationary pressures for a wide range of goods and services. This will depress domestic demand as businesses and households are already struggling with the dram's sharp depreciation against the dollar. The slowdown in economic growth this year is likely to see public support for the authorities fall further.


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