Food exports offer lifeline to ailing Armenian economy

Subject Armenia's unexpected export boost. Significance Growth in the Armenian economy this year is attributable to a revival in exports, mainly to Russia, apparently due to that country's ban on Western food imports. Foreign investment and the funds sent home by expatriate workers are falling, affecting domestic demand. Membership of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has offered Armenia little protection from a region-wide downturn stemming from Russia's recession. Impacts Political tensions may resurface and lead to widespread protests. Improved ties with Iran will prompt a southward reorientation of exports and investment. Iran-facing economic strategies will be constrained by Russia's foreign policy interests.

Significance Despite its status as a major oil producer, Kazakhstan has struggled to meet domestic demand for refined products since the 1990s. Unprecedented fuel shortages in October and November forced the authorities to import large amounts of petrol and diesel from Russia. Impacts The loans that paid for refinery modernisation will be have to be repaid from retail fuel prices. The absence of a common energy market in the Eurasian Economic Union will complicate price harmonisation. The government believes it can square expanding production with its commitments to the Russian-OPEC output cap.


2015 ◽  
pp. 87-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Knobel

The paper is devoted to the analysis of development prospects and problems of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) of Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. It considers integration problems inside EAEU, interactions of EAEU with other CIS countries and with countries from the rest of the world. The paper shows that the major integration challenge inside EAEU is the domination of the redistributive motive over the creative one. It estimates the value of the oil and gas transfer from Russia to other EAEU members and the influence of the Russian tax maneuver on this transfer. The paper shows the need in redistribution mechanism inside EAEU as a necessary condition for getting the potential positive economic effects of free trade with other countries. It also assesses the risks for EAEU due to Russian embargo for food imports from countries of the sanctions list and possible application of tariff in the trade with Ukraine.


Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.


Significance This goal was implicitly a response to the previous three decades of foreign relations under ousted former President Omar al-Bashir, when Sudan struggled under international sanctions, isolation and fluctuating foreign policy fortunes. Impacts Contrasting foreign policy orientations among political factions may be a source of tension within the power-sharing government. Contradictory agreements with other countries will be a liability. Foreign investment inflows will remain muted, at least until economic and political uncertainty fades.


2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 748-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirgul Nizaeva ◽  
Ali Uyar

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to comparatively analyze the corporate governance codes of transition economies, particularly five Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) members (i.e. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia). Specifically, the convergence or divergence of these countries’ corporate governance codes among themselves as well as relative to the best practices of the UK Corporate Governance Code (UK Code) and the OECD Principles of Corporate Governance are investigated. Design/methodology/approach Initially, the existing literature on corporate governance with special focus on transition countries is reviewed. Afterwards, benchmarking the international best practices, based on main chapters and contents, the corporate governance codes of all countries in the sample are analyzed. Findings The paper finds that even though some principles of the corporate governance codes of the countries in the sample differ in some aspects, they do converge to some extent. However, high misalignments between the UK Code and the OECD Principles and the codes of selected countries in some aspects were found. Research limitations/implications The conclusion and implications of the study characterize the corporate governance of selected developing countries; thus, they might not be generalizable to other countries. Practical implications The codes of the countries in the sample should be revised, and more specifications regarding the stakeholder, board structure, its subcommittees, independence, diversity and transparency issues need to be addressed. Originality/value The paper comprehensively analyzes the contents of corporate governance codes of transition countries; from both practical and academic point of view, it was important gap that needed to be fulfilled.


Significance The recent fall in the price of oil was expected to provide a timely boost to the South Korean economy, but its performance in the first quarter of 2015, though rebounding from the previous quarter, has been below expectations. Beset by slowing exports and weak domestic demand, the mood in both the business and household sectors is downbeat. Impacts Absent a sustained growth rebound (or some kind of foreign policy breakthrough), Park's presidency will be seen as a failure. Deflation could threaten South Korea if there is no adjustment to monetary policy. An FTA with China will boost South Korean exports only in the longer term. The sharp depreciation of the euro will make Europe a challenging market for South Korea for now.


Subject Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter could see a significant worsening of Russia's ties with the West. With the Donbas crisis threatening to erupt into open war as in 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk 2.0 process is strained to breaking-point. Recent months have seen the gradual deterioration of the February peace plan, with heavier skirmishing culminating in the recent battle for Maryinka. In Ukraine, the economic situation remains a major problem. In Central Asia, regional economies are suffering from Russia's slowdown, as some strengthen their integration with Russia as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).


Subject Outlook for the food and agriculture sectors. Significance Speaking in Astana in June, Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev said the country's agricultural sector was expected to benefit from 16 billion dollars in foreign direct investment (FDI) by 2021. This is foreseen in the 'Agribusiness-2020' strategic programme, which was adopted in February 2013. Agriculture and food processing remain key areas of Kazakhstan's economy, the former having traditionally absorbed a large amount of state subsidies. However, their future looks uncertain in light of Kazakhstan's accession to the WTO and its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Impacts Flooding the Kazakhstani market with cheap imports may lead to mass bankruptcies in domestic agri-business and spark social unrest. Corruption remains a serious obstacle to the efficient use of government-allocated funds to support agriculture and food processing. Investor interest in Kazakhstan's agriculture will remain limited because of internal constraints.


Subject Outlook for Peruvian growth. Significance With both external and domestic demand ebbing in the first few months of 2019, forecasters are reducing their estimates for GDP growth in 2019. Peru is exposed to a slowdown in growth in China, since it is by far its biggest export market and the main source of foreign investment. Public investment also appears to be slower than in previous years. Impacts Slower growth will impact negatively on employment and risk pushing up poverty levels. Business groups will increase their pressure on government to roll back social legislation on matters like labour stability. The relatively high level of reserves will cushion Peru from balance of payments pressures.


Subject Soft versus hard versions of nationalism in Belarus. Significance Under pressure from Moscow to make concessions on energy and political relations, President Alexander Lukashenka is trying to turn this to his advantage by presenting himself as the sole effective defender of Belarusian independence. The opposition is warning Lukashenka not to submit to Russian expansionism, making this a central issue for a presidential election due by August 30. Moscow may consider backing an alternative to Lukashenka, but pressing too hard might be counterproductive. Impacts A sudden economic downturn caused by oil supply problems could provoke apolitical and less controllable protests. Constitutional changes in Russia reduce the likelihood that Vladimir Putin wants to head a unified Russian-Belarusian state. Lukashenka will try to rally support from other Eurasian Economic Union leaders in his campaign for better trade terms with Russia. The president will use US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit and EU engagement as a partial balance against Russia.


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