Kyrgyzstan has limited scope for reviving its economy

Significance Officials in Kyrgyzstan have complained that the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has created problems instead of improving trade and investment prospects. Russia's recession has led to reduced inward investment and migrant remittances for Kyrgyzstan. In the new government appointed in April, the only major change was the prime minister. Impacts The government will attempt to revive economic ties trade with China since the EEU has proved to be no substitute. China may offer new loans as Russia can no longer afford 'political' assistance. The problems Kyrgyzstan has encountered with EEU accession may deter would-be member Tajikistan.

Significance Officials are trying to correct high domestic prices which they see as unjustified, and to claw back what they regard as excessive profits earned by metals companies. Impacts Export duties could exert upward pressure on global prices of steel, nickel and aluminium. Exports to the Eurasian Economic Union are exempt, so the government will need a failsafe system to prevent re-exports to third countries. The export duties will reduce the corporate income tax earned by metal-producing regions.


Subject Japan-Central Asia ties. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will make a five-nation tour of Central Asia in August -- the first since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006. With the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union in effect as of January 1 and China fleshing out its plans for a 'New Silk Road Economic Belt', Japan presents itself as a 'third option' that could dilute China's and Russia's predominance. Impacts Opportunities for Japanese investment will grow, especially in the field of nuclear energy. Security ties could grow under the Abe government's defence reforms, 'proactive pacificism' and new interest in counter-terrorism. South Korea presents itself as another 'third option' and other countries are becoming more active too, even as the US presence recedes.


Significance Despite its status as a major oil producer, Kazakhstan has struggled to meet domestic demand for refined products since the 1990s. Unprecedented fuel shortages in October and November forced the authorities to import large amounts of petrol and diesel from Russia. Impacts The loans that paid for refinery modernisation will be have to be repaid from retail fuel prices. The absence of a common energy market in the Eurasian Economic Union will complicate price harmonisation. The government believes it can square expanding production with its commitments to the Russian-OPEC output cap.


Subject Shifts in Russian foreign trade. Significance The dollar value of foreign trade rose last year as a result of strengthening global oil prices. Trade is shifting gradually to non-European, non-US locations, mainly in Asia and above all China. For imports, this trend is particularly marked for sanctioned items such as hi-tech electronics and for foodstuffs where Moscow has banned Western imports. Impacts The trade shift towards Asia should offer opportunities to pursue the government policy of 'de-dollarisation'. The dollar cannot be easily abandoned because of its importance to the oil trade. Economic relationships, new and old, will form a basis for Russian political engagement. Russia will promote free trade agreements between the Eurasian Economic Union and rapidly growing countries such as China and Vietnam.


Significance Attacks against intellectuals and activists since 2013 have generated widespread international outrage. However, the priorities of Prime Minister Shaikh Hasina's government lie elsewhere. Relative political stability has improved the economy, emboldening the government to aim for 'middle income' country status by 2021. Impacts Growth of garment exports will accelerate, creating opportunities for foreign investment. Deeper economic ties with China will reduce Dhaka's responsiveness to Western criticisms on human rights. Bangladesh-China ties will worry India, but the BJP will not soften its stance on Bangladeshi migrants for political reasons.


Significance Russia played a high-profile role mediating the landmark Iran nuclear agreement announced on July 14. As such, the deal represents a diplomatic victory for Russia and its aim of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. The deal also offers the prospect of increased opportunities for Russian business, and for Russian diplomacy in the Middle East, particularly Syria. However, the agreement also raises concerns in Moscow that Iran's detente with the West will weaken Russia's political and economic ties with the Islamic Republic, and see Moscow lose a valuable ally in its stand-off with Washington. Impacts Russia will try to strengthen cooperation with Iran within the Eurasian Economic Union framework. Potential for cooperation in oil and gas will be limited, although Moscow will try to coordinate energy policies with Tehran. Return of Iranian crude to global markets will dampen prices further, increasing Moscow's economic woes. Russia will use promised delivery of air defence systems to Iran as a bargaining chip in its stand-off with the United States.


Subject Relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Significance Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's August 17 visit to Uzbekistan sealed the change in direction in relations between the two neighbouring states that began in 2016. The rapprochement is a major success for Uzbek President Shavqat Mirzioyev in his drive to make his country a central player in Central Asia rather than the other states' most difficult neighbour. Impacts Improved Uzbek-Tajik transit opportunities will help China's Belt and Road project. Increasing bilateral economic ties will strengthen the case for both countries to stay out of the Eurasian Economic Union. Mirzioyev will use regional ties to establish Uzbekistan as a leading player in the fight against Islamic militancy.


2016 ◽  
pp. 43-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Vinokurov

The paper appraises current progress in establishing the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Although the progress has slowed down after the initial rapid advancement, the Union is better viewed not as an exception from the general rules of regional economic integration but rather as one of the functioning customs unions with its successes and stumbling blocs. The paper reviews the state of Eurasian institutions, the establishment of the single market of goods and services, the situation with mutual trade and investment flows among the member states, the ongoing work on the liquidation/unification of non-tariff barriers, the problems of the efficient coordination of macroeconomic policies, progress towards establishing an EAEU network of free trade areas with partners around the world, the state of the common labor market, and the dynamics of public opinion on Eurasian integration in the five member states.


Significance The government vows that freeports will represent “hubs of enterprise which will allow places to carry out business inside a country’s land border but where different customs rules apply”. The creation of freeports are a central component of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to facilitate global trade and promote regional regeneration in the post-Brexit era. Impacts With Brexit, London will have more flexibility regarding the concessions it can offer businesses operating in freeports. The government vows to create freeports in the devolved regions but faces the difficult task of cooperating with the devolved governments. Some poorer regions will miss out on freeports, which could leave them even more deprived and stoke local resentment against London.


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