Greek centre-left bids to regain electoral clout

Significance Movement for Change is expected to evolve into a party by March 2018. A successful launch will be a major step towards consolidating Greek party politics, which has been fragmented since 2010 when the country embarked on the first of three economic assistance programmes with the EU-ECB-IMF ‘troika’. Impacts Traditional leftism is losing its appeal, after its failure to provide a viable alternative to austerity. Tsipras’s volte faces and surrenders of political principle such as arms sales to Saudi Arabia are discrediting Syriza with voters. Tsipras will try to capitalise on being in office when Greece exits its third bailout in August 2018.

Significance The forces of the internationally-recognised government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, in 2015 routed Huthi rebels from Aden and the southern coast, and also made progress in the central Marib province. However, their advance faltered in early 2016 as it approached the densely-populated highlands, where the rebels have a natural support base. It had appeared that this deadlock might allow a negotiated solution, but the UN-mediated talks failed. In 2017, the government has begun a new advance up the west coast. Impacts The humanitarian situation will worsen; famine is probable. The EU might consider an embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Without the stability of a negotiated peace, it is unlikely that much of Yemen’s oil and gas output will come back on stream. The Yemen conflict will further undermine regional relations, despite recent Iranian efforts to reconcile with the Gulf Arab states.


Subject The impact of Raheel Sharif taking over as the head of the Saudi-led counterterrorism alliance Significance Pakistan’s retired chief of army staff General Raheel Sharif was last month appointed commander of the Saudi Arabia-led Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism, which now has 41 members. The appointment boosts the image of the Islamic Alliance at a time of limited progress on Saudi-Pakistan political relations and little clarity on the goals and strategy of the Alliance itself. Impacts Saudi-Pakistan military-to-military ties will develop, partly due to their longstanding defence pact and arms sales. Islamabad will continue to improve ties with Iran, even if that means somewhat alienating Riyadh. Pakistan’s army will avoid any Middle Eastern military campaign that could worsen Shia-Sunni divisions at home.


Significance In response to the November 13 Paris terror attacks, President Francois Hollande has embarked on a ramping-up of security and intelligence powers and resources, and a new military and diplomatic effort to defeat ISG in the Middle East. However, France has yet to clarify how it will finance these measures, confirm the support of its allies or establish its strategy to defeat ISG. France's response represents an assertion of French security leadership in the EU. Impacts France's Gulf ties will become more delicate as it fights ISG with Russia, facing rising domestic attack but remaining key to arms sales. France's strengthened position in the EU will increase pressures for fiscal policy relaxation, against German stringency. Any French wish to see EU Russia sanctions easing, to aid Franco-Russian anti-ISG cooperation, could run into US and German complications. The French authorities' response will raise civil liberties questions. Arguably, the handling of France's Muslim population remains the most significant issue.


Significance King Salman bin Abdulaziz's visit to Moscow in October was hailed as a major step forward in relations, but many of the agreements signed were preliminary or simply confirmation of earlier deals. The two states appear ready to act as friendly competitors rather than antagonists, despite rivalries in areas such as global oil production and the Syrian conflict. Impacts Joint commissions will meet soon to flesh out agreements, although follow-through is uncertain. Russia will try to add Saudi Arabia to the list of states drawn into its Astana talks on Syria. The Yamal-2 liquefied natural gas project will go ahead with or without Saudi investment.


Subject Sweden's new government. Significance On January 16, Sweden’s Social Democrats formed a minority coalition with the Green Party, with support from the centre-right Liberal and Centre parties. It also has reluctant support from the Left party, which may not play any role in policy. The agreement marks the end of four months of cross-party negotiations after September’s general election delivered a hung parliament. The left-right alliance attempts to prevent the populist and anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, which won 17.5% in the election, from entering government. The coalition parties could eventually face a no-confidence vote tabled by the Left party over their support for centre-right policies, while a failure to tackle crime and immigration will serve to strengthen the Sweden Democrats' profile in opposition. Impacts The fragile nature of the government could be a deterrent for future investors in the Swedish economy. The UK departure from the EU and the perceived strengthening of the German-Franco alliance may increase support for Sweden’s own EU exit. Sweden will stop selling weapons to 'undemocratic countries' -- a reference to Saudi Arabia.


Subject Implications of migrant traffica crackdown for Niger. Significance Niger was the prime gateway for trans-Saharan trafficking of migrants to Libya and Europe until 2016. It is also under threat from salafi-jihadist militants. For both reasons, it is a priority recipient of international military and development support, especially from the EU. Impacts New sources of livelihoods and prosperity will be required if ex-traffickers are not to be tempted into crime or destabilising violence. Libya’s instability and wider regional insecurity will hamper the development of a viable alternative economic model for the Agadez region. More aid will ease the public spending strains that brought Nigeriens to the streets of Niamey in protest at a tight 2018 budget.


Significance The list includes Saudi Arabia and comes amid mounting criticism in Europe over Saudi domestic and foreign policy. It raises questions about the prospects for raising capital from the international financial system for Riyadh’s ambitious global investment plans. If the list is ratified, extra checks will be required for transactions with Europe-based banks, and authorities will have to commit to upgrading their systems. Impacts If ratified, the list will not stop banks working with the kingdom, but it may lead to increased fees and less attractive terms. Riyadh may be reluctant to retaliate as it still depends on access to European financial markets. The shadow cast over Saudi Arabia will prompt banks to step up efforts to rebuild business links with Qatar. The United Kingdom’s impending departure from the EU could weaken Riyadh’s influence in Brussels.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis E. Dimitropoulos

Purpose Over the past decades, corporate social responsibility (CSR) has been considered as a significant corporate strategy and also has been documented as a main information dissemination mechanism of corporations to shareholders, creditors and other external stakeholders. This fact makes the CSR activities and CSR performance interconnected with the quality of firms’ financial reporting. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of CSR performance on the earnings management (EM) behaviour using a sample from 24 European Union (EU) countries summing up to 121,154 firm-year observations over the period 2003–2018. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a multi-country data set with various dimensions of CSR performance including indexes regarding workforce, community relations, product responsibility and human rights protection. The empirical analysis is conducted with panel data regressions. Findings Evidence supports the negative association between CSR and EM indicating that high CSR performing firms are associated with less income smoothing and discretionary accruals, thus with higher financial reporting quality. Practical implications Regulatory agencies in the EU could use the findings of the study for the improvement of the accounting framework via enhancing the use and publications of social and environmental responsibility information and reports. Social implications Also, the current paper could be of interest not only to academic researchers but also to potential and existing investors in European corporations. The negative association between CSR performance and EM could be used by investors in assessing the risk of firms and the quality and reliability of their financial information. Originality/value This is the first study within the EU, which considers the multi-facet characteristics of CSR on the quality of accounting earnings and offers useful policy implications for regulators and investors.


2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Gradín ◽  
Olga Cantó ◽  
Coral del Río

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the different dynamic characteristics of unemployment in a selected group of European Union countries during the current Great Recession, which had unequal consequences on employment depending on the country considered. Design/methodology/approach – The paper follows Shorrocks’s proposal of a duration-sensitive measure of unemployment, and uses cross-sectional data reported by Eurostat coming from European Labour Force Surveys. Findings – The results add some evidence on the relevance of incorporating spells’ duration in measuring unemployment, finding remarkable differences in unemployment patterns in time among European countries. Research limitations/implications – In this paper unemployment is analyzed for all the labor force. Future research should investigate patterns across specific groups such as young people, women, immigrants or the low skilled. Practical implications – It is generally accepted that the negative impact of unemployment on individual welfare can be very different depending on its duration. However, conventional statistics on unemployment do not adequately capture to what extent the recession is not only increasing the incidence of unemployment but also its severity in terms of duration in time of ongoing unemployment spells. The paper shows an easy and practical way to do it in order to improve the understanding of the unemployment phenomenon, using information usually reported by statistical offices. Originality/value – First, the paper provides a tool for dynamic analysis of unemployment based on reported cross-sectional data. Second, the paper demonstrates the empirical relevance of considering spells’ duration when assessing differences in unemployment across countries or in unemployment trends. This is usually neglected or only partially addressed by most conventional measures of unemployment.


Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.


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