The deadlock in Yemen may break, raising risks

Significance The forces of the internationally-recognised government, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, in 2015 routed Huthi rebels from Aden and the southern coast, and also made progress in the central Marib province. However, their advance faltered in early 2016 as it approached the densely-populated highlands, where the rebels have a natural support base. It had appeared that this deadlock might allow a negotiated solution, but the UN-mediated talks failed. In 2017, the government has begun a new advance up the west coast. Impacts The humanitarian situation will worsen; famine is probable. The EU might consider an embargo on arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Without the stability of a negotiated peace, it is unlikely that much of Yemen’s oil and gas output will come back on stream. The Yemen conflict will further undermine regional relations, despite recent Iranian efforts to reconcile with the Gulf Arab states.

Subject Belarus's attempts to court the EU and the United States. Significance The Belarusian government has shifted from an exclusively Russia-oriented foreign policy to a campaign to mend fences with the West. Government statements and a defence policy document speak of equal, non-adversarial relationships, while President Alexander Lukashenka has encouraged greater engagement with the EU and United States. Impacts Western governments will grant more legitimacy to the government. Opposition parties will find it harder to cite international isolation as a failed government policy. The EU's Eastern Partnership may be revitalised by its emerging role as conduit for ties with Belarus.


Significance Movement for Change is expected to evolve into a party by March 2018. A successful launch will be a major step towards consolidating Greek party politics, which has been fragmented since 2010 when the country embarked on the first of three economic assistance programmes with the EU-ECB-IMF ‘troika’. Impacts Traditional leftism is losing its appeal, after its failure to provide a viable alternative to austerity. Tsipras’s volte faces and surrenders of political principle such as arms sales to Saudi Arabia are discrediting Syriza with voters. Tsipras will try to capitalise on being in office when Greece exits its third bailout in August 2018.


Subject Sweden's new government. Significance On January 16, Sweden’s Social Democrats formed a minority coalition with the Green Party, with support from the centre-right Liberal and Centre parties. It also has reluctant support from the Left party, which may not play any role in policy. The agreement marks the end of four months of cross-party negotiations after September’s general election delivered a hung parliament. The left-right alliance attempts to prevent the populist and anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats, which won 17.5% in the election, from entering government. The coalition parties could eventually face a no-confidence vote tabled by the Left party over their support for centre-right policies, while a failure to tackle crime and immigration will serve to strengthen the Sweden Democrats' profile in opposition. Impacts The fragile nature of the government could be a deterrent for future investors in the Swedish economy. The UK departure from the EU and the perceived strengthening of the German-Franco alliance may increase support for Sweden’s own EU exit. Sweden will stop selling weapons to 'undemocratic countries' -- a reference to Saudi Arabia.


Author(s):  
Dmitrii О. Mikhalev ◽  
◽  
Egor’ A. Sergeev ◽  

The article presents a retrospective analysis of relations between the government of Italy and the European Union institutions in the context of supranational fiscal regulation in 2002–2019. The authors analyze the influence of external and internal factors on the state of public finance in Italy, note the reasons that made it difficult to meet the requirements of the Stability and Growth Pact, study the main issues on the agenda in the EU-Italy relations and their evolution. The authors also come to conclusion that unlike the earlier discussions about correcting budget deficit in Italy, current focus of supranational fiscal governance is shifted to preventing it, what challenges the economic sovereignty of Italy and country’s opportunities to conduct a discretionary fiscal policy.


Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.


Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Murr ◽  
Nieves Carrera

Purpose This study aims to understand how institutional logics influence the adoption and implementation of risk management (RM) practices by government entities in a non-western, developing country. Design/methodology/approach This study draws on the institutional logics perspective (ILP) to analyze a case study of a government entity in Saudi Arabia. Data were obtained from semi-structured interviews, observations and documentary evidence. Findings Findings suggest that the adoption and implementation of RM projects by Saudi governmental agencies was rooted in a traditional logic, even though the catalyst of the government for adopting a RM culture across government agencies was framed within a reform program inspired by a modernization logic. In the entity under investigation, the RM project led to an unstable situation where actors were confronted with these two competing logics. Although the project used manifestations of a modernization logic, the actions of individuals within the organization were embedded in a traditional logic. Research limitations/implications The study is based on a single case study in a specific country, limiting the generalizability of the findings. Originality/value This study provides novel evidence of the adoption and implementation of RM in governmental entities in a developing, non-western, country using ILP. Doing so enhances our knowledge about how managers struggle with competing institutional logics in an underexplored setting and enriches current accounts of key drivers and barriers of RM. It also addresses calls for a deeper understanding of the logics and managerial practices interplay in the public sector.


Significance After accentuated rule-of-law erosion during 2017-19, the new government encouraged hopes that such violations would become a thing of the past. However, last month, the government sacked the ombudsman, while the Constitutional Court declared void a judgement of the EU Court of Justice (CJEU) defending judicial independence. Impacts Recent developments erode hopes that last month’s positive CVM report will lead to Romania’s Schengen zone accession later this year. Failure to replace the ombudsman will not affect the coalition parties electorally, given the politicisation of rule-of-law issues. Subnational courts will be left confused whether to apply the Constitutional Court or the CJEU ruling to legal disciplinary cases.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Junaid Khawaja ◽  
Zainab Nasser Alharbi

PurposeThe objective of the study is to determine the factors influencing the behavior of investor in Saudi Stock Market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses correlation analysis, factor analysis, reliability and multiple regression analysis on the primary data collected from 125 investors in Saudi Stock Market through a questionnaire distributed randomly.FindingsThe results indicate that the factors like past performance of the stocks, financial statements, firm status in industry, the reputation of the firm, and expected corporate earnings have significant influence on the behavior of investors. The factor of the image that a certain company has built for itself over the years on the basis of its financial practices is a large influencer of investor decisions as compared to advocate recommendation factors. The investment behavior is not significantly influenced by gender or age; however, it is significantly influenced by educational qualification, professional experience and investment volume.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper limits itself to study the factors that influence the behavior of investors. However, it does not address the issue of investor overconfidence and its implications for Saudi Stock Market.Practical implicationsThis research provides a road map for the investors interested in making their investment decisions by understanding the most influencing factors.Social implicationsThis research has social implications for government agencies to delineate the required legislation to regulate the investors and also to increase market efficiency. The results show that investors are strongly affected by signals from the government.Originality/valueThis research is an original contribution toward the behavioral finance field in Saudi Arabia and can be used as a reference material for investors, companies and government policymakers in Saudi Arabia. This study incorporates investors' individual characteristics and explores factors that influence investor behavior unlike some previous studies using Saudi data.


Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.


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