Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

Dissatisfaction with Burkinabe government could mount

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Communities ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
National Plan ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Student Protests ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
Government Leadership ◽  
The Government

Subject Rising instability in Burkina Faso Significance After two years in office, President Roch Marc Christian Kabore’s government is facing a wave of strikes, student protests and demonstrations by disgruntled local communities. This unrest comes as the Burkinabe security forces struggle to contain salafi-jihadist insurgents in the north amid public criticisms of poor government leadership. Kabore's administration has stated that a recent cabinet reshuffle will refocus energies on the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES). However, growing public discontent is emboldening the previously weak opposition. Impacts Growing civil unrest could divert funding and resources from the northern provinces most vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The government will try to avoid clamping down on protests for fear of aiding the opposition further. If conducted fairly, long-delayed trials of former regime leaders could increase the government’s popularity.

Ecuador’s military faces cuts as security risks build

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
Excessive Force ◽  
Budget Cuts ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Security Risks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuel Subsidies ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Military pressures. Significance The military has become more visible in Ecuador in recent months, with soldiers and tanks deployed on the streets in October, to tackle protests over the elimination of fuel subsidies. Defence Minister Oswaldo Jarrin has become a focus of popular discontent with the security forces, which were accused of using excessive force to contain the unrest. The protests, together with increased drug trafficking and organised crime, have compounded pressures already faced by the security forces due to budget cuts, more of which are planned for 2020. Impacts Investigations into protester deaths will generate tensions between the government and security forces. Close attention will be paid to the tactics and force used by the security forces during future protests. Washington may use stronger Ecuador ties to bolster its presence in the Andean region.

Kidal will be test of the state's return to north Mali

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Far North ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Northern City

Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.

Drug haul highlights Costa Rica’s security challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Drug Trafficking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Costa Rican ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Government ◽  
New Infrastructure

Subject Costa Rica drugs. Significance Costa Rican police on February 15 seized more than five tonnes of cocaine in a single operation -- the country’s largest-ever drugs seizure. The haul underlines the extent to which transnational drug-trafficking organisations have infiltrated the country, compounding concerns about related impacts on crime. The government of President Carlos Alvarado is currently implementing a new security strategy, but it is unclear how effective this will be in combating drug gangs. Impacts Costa Rica will seek extra security funding from partners such as the United States. Violence in neighbouring Nicaragua will exacerbate the pressures facing security forces along the border. The Limon region will be a bellwether for security trends as new infrastructure opens up the region.

Sudan’s new government offers few new ideas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Support ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject The ruling party's response to the Sudan protests. Significance President Omar al-Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) continue to face severe pressure from recurrent public protests that began last December. Chronic economic difficulties have contributed to civil unrest and protesters have called for Bashir to step down. Impacts New protest escalations are likely but may be short-lived. Security forces will continue to use harsh measures to deter protesters. The government will likely seek further political and financial support from the Gulf.

Libyan politics may rattle the oil sector yet again

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Significance Libya’s hydrocarbons sector has seen a period of relative stability since the end in 2020 of eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s military offensive against Tripoli and the formation of the Government of National Unity in early 2021. Oil and gas revenues are central to the national budget -- and their control and distribution are focal points of political contention. Impacts The main risk to oil production in 2022 is the possibility of a renewed political crisis triggered by elections. Prompt payment of salaries and fees will remain important to discouraging private security forces from closing down oil infrastructure. Foreign oil and gas companies will become more cautious about new investment.

Contradictions risk undermining Mexico crime strategy

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crime Prevention ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Police Forces

Subject Military perceptions. Significance Residents of Acajete, Puebla, on September 9 reportedly attacked a group of soldiers guarding a warehouse that contained stolen train cargo. As ordered, the armed forces initially refused to retaliate, but the standoff eventually led President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) to authorise a proportional response. The following day the defence ministry (SEDENA) said any further incidents of this nature would be met with force. Similar attacks have nevertheless taken place in several states since. Impacts Negative rhetoric about the security forces could foster tensions between the government and the military if the latter feel unsupported. Failure to develop effective civilian police forces to work with communities and gather local intelligence will hinder crime prevention. Further deterioration of the security situation may hit AMLO’s popularity, as he will increasingly be unable to blame predecessors.

Unsettled Libyan politics may fuel violence in Tripoli

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Commander ◽  
The Government

Significance The violence is indicative of growing friction between local Tripolitanian militias under the influence of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and forces now loyal to the Government of National Unity (GNU), which in 2019 rallied from across western Libya to defend the capital from eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar’s siege. Impacts This is a last-ditch act by the UAE’s only remaining military assets in western Libya, and could provoke conflict with Turkish proxies. Violence involving Turkish-backed forces would refocus European attention on Ankara’s role in Libya and reignite pressure for a withdrawal. Renewed violence would end a recent economic revival in Tripoli, created by a period of peace and many reconstruction contracts.

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Street pressures will erode elite cohesion in Cuba

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Ruling Elite ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government is nevertheless shaken. Protests were triggered by severe economic hardship, and reflect a loss of public confidence that the government can improve matters. The state’s repressive response has led to expressions of disconformity from individuals hitherto loyal to the system, which may signal emerging fissures within the ruling elite. Impacts Piecemeal reforms, announced to appease protesters, will do little to improve Cubans’ lives. Sweeping reforms are unlikely as they would strain elite cohesion. Diaz-Canel’s handling of the crisis illustrates the limitations of his authority. Perceptions of elite unity, long key to political stability, are now problematic, offering little flexibility or hope of change.

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