Dissatisfaction with Burkinabe government could mount

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Communities ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
National Plan ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Student Protests ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
Government Leadership ◽  
The Government

Subject Rising instability in Burkina Faso Significance After two years in office, President Roch Marc Christian Kabore’s government is facing a wave of strikes, student protests and demonstrations by disgruntled local communities. This unrest comes as the Burkinabe security forces struggle to contain salafi-jihadist insurgents in the north amid public criticisms of poor government leadership. Kabore's administration has stated that a recent cabinet reshuffle will refocus energies on the National Plan for Economic and Social Development (PNDES). However, growing public discontent is emboldening the previously weak opposition. Impacts Growing civil unrest could divert funding and resources from the northern provinces most vulnerable to terrorist attacks. The government will try to avoid clamping down on protests for fear of aiding the opposition further. If conducted fairly, long-delayed trials of former regime leaders could increase the government’s popularity.

Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Confidence ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
National Unity ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
The North ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Significance The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014. Impacts Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest. Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement. Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.

Police activity in Tunisia may hinder transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Security ◽  
Arab Uprisings ◽  
Sharp Focus ◽  
The Government ◽  
Police Activity

Subject Tunisia's police service. Significance Elements of the state security sector have been acting autonomously from the state since the Arab uprisings. The threat of terrorism continues to facilitate this trajectory, and parliamentary and presidential elections planned for 2019 could bring the issue into sharp focus. Impacts Increased terrorist attacks may prompt the government to allow the police greater leeway when investigating suspects. Victims of police mistreatment are unlikely to secure justice. Increased terrorist attacks may lead to legislation to strengthen the security forces’ ability to avoid transparency.

Sudan’s new government offers few new ideas

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Support ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Congress Party ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
National Congress ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject The ruling party's response to the Sudan protests. Significance President Omar al-Bashir and the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) continue to face severe pressure from recurrent public protests that began last December. Chronic economic difficulties have contributed to civil unrest and protesters have called for Bashir to step down. Impacts New protest escalations are likely but may be short-lived. Security forces will continue to use harsh measures to deter protesters. The government will likely seek further political and financial support from the Gulf.

Burkinabe government will expand counterterrorism push

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Development Plan ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fast Tracking ◽  
The North ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Government Security ◽  
Regional Governments

Significance The new regional counterterrorism force is deemed necessary to counter increased terrorist attacks both within and across regional boundaries of the G5 states (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger). In August, 19 people were killed in a deadly terrorist assault in the Burkinabe capital, Ouagadougou. The militant resurgence is pushing the Burkinabe government to react more quickly and aggressively than before, while simultaneously fast-tracking several development programmes to placate its domestic critics. Impacts Public pressure will increase on regional governments to make the G5 counterterrorism force operational. The government’s new emergency development plan for the north will temporarily ease citizens' concern over the security forces' limitations. Sensitive forthcoming trials of former regime officials will make government security gains even more important to avoid public unrest.

Gang violence highlights Venezuela security crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Organised Crime ◽  
State Violence ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance The government claims opposition factions linked to Guaido are behind the upsurge of ‘GEDO’ violence (Grupo Estructurado de Delincuencia Organizada, or Structured Organised Crime Group). Efforts by security forces to ‘stabilise’ GEDO-dominated communities may portend an upsurge in state violence. Impacts The Haitian president’s killing has strengthened the government narrative of externally orchestrated mercenary warfare. Concerns about state decomposition in Venezuela will add urgency to international efforts at successful dialogue. An already weakened Guaido is on the back foot following Guevara’s arrest and lacks the authority to enforce any negotiated outcomes.

Maghreb states will struggle to address protests

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Police Officers ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Abuse Of Power ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Al Hoceima ◽  
Police Abuse

Significance In Morocco, more than 35 police officers were injured in clashes with demonstrators in al-Hoceima commemorating the anniversary of the death of a local anti-colonial hero on February 5. Unconfirmed reports said nearly 200 protesters were injured in nearby towns. Impacts Well-publicised incidents of police abuse or government neglect could trigger wider protests and civil unrest. Growing protests could trigger more violent clashes with security forces that could become a political liability for governments. Governments will come under greater pressure to rein in corruption and abuse of power.

Economic gloom portends instability in Zimbabwe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Market ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
South African Rand

Significance Mawarire is the founder of the 'This Flag' movement, which has been a driving force behind a wave of demonstrations and strikes earlier this month against graft, unemployment and economic mismanagement by President Robert Mugabe's government. Impacts Import bans will adversely affect South African exporters, for whom Zimbabwe is a key regional market. Use of the South African rand in Zimbabwe will remain unpopular, due to concerns about its weakness against the dollar. The government will prioritise cash for paying the salaries of the security forces, since these underpin the regime's survival. Loans from the African Export-Import Bank will help Harare to begin paying the World Bank some of its arrears.

Iraq’s Shia parties will hawk nationalist credentials

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Break Up ◽  
The Government

Significance The Kurdish referendum has complicated Abadi’s efforts to win reselection after provincial and national elections, expected in April 2018. Abadi -- an Arab Shia -- is vying for voters within a fractured Shia constituency. The referendum, which could break up the country, is deeply unpopular among the Shia base; Abadi, however, needs an alliance with the Kurds to confront Shia political rivals. Impacts The referendum is likely to go ahead, and could prove a flashpoint. Iraq will boost diplomatic engagement with Washington, Riyadh and Ankara. Mainstream Shia parties will work together to limit the rise of Shia militia leaders. A sharp increase in IS terrorist attacks could undermine faith in the government.

NAFTA talks will raise Mexican labour reform pressure

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Free Association ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Relations ◽  
The North ◽  
Union Leaders ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Subject Mexico's trade unions. Significance On September 11, the head of Mexico’s main business lobby Coparmex called on Congress to advance several pending issues relating to labour reform before the 2018 elections, including legislation on labour relations, union regulation and collective bargaining contracts. The call comes as the government attempts to resist pressure from Washington and Ottawa to address labour disparities as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations. Impacts Government and business will oppose any NAFTA alterations that might harm Mexico’s comparative advantages. Union leaders will resist strengthening the right to free association, which would allow workers to opt for alternative unions. The Confederation of Workers of Mexico will put pressure on its more than 11,000 affiliated unions to vote for the PRI in 2018. The independent National Union of Workers will call on affiliates to support leftist options. Discontent has increased among unionised workers, who will not necessarily vote along the same lines as the leaders.

Jokowi may consider expanded autonomy for Papua

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Penal Code ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Student Protests ◽  
Human Rights Council ◽  
West Papua ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
The Government ◽  
Partnership Agreement

Subject Recent uptick in protests in Papua. Significance Security in restive Papua and West Papua provinces has deteriorated in the last seven weeks amid two waves of violent protests. Despite President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo’s new willingness to meet with Papuan pro-independence leaders, the government lacks a strategy for reducing tensions. Impacts Jakarta may be somewhat distracted from the Papua situation by student protests over anti-corruption reforms and a proposed new penal code. Violence in Papua could harm Indonesia’s chances of gaining a seat on the UN Human Rights Council next week. Despite the unrest, Canberra is unlikely to hesitate in ratifying an Indonesia-Australia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.

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