Kinshasa riot portends disorderly executive transition

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Community ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Executive Transition ◽  
Near Term

Significance Violent protests engulfed the capital city last week as police clashed with demonstrators demanding President Joseph Kabila honour presidential term limits. The president's intransigence has driven the violent reaction, but divisions within the opposition are also fuelling the violence. Impacts Recent violence may have ended the prospect of opposition unity in the near term. The DRC is unlikely to experience a third civil war but security may deteriorate, especially in Kinshasa. The international community may broker peace talks led by the African Union. The increasing instability will almost certainly shatter the DRC's fragile economic recovery.

Africa’s vaccine deficit presents risks of variance

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
African Union ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Transmission ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
High Prevalence

Significance Both the WHO and African Union (AU) have called for a moratorium on booster shot programmes to allow more supply to flow to regions such as Africa, where vaccination numbers remain extremely low. Impacts High prevalence of co-morbidities such as HIV may require African nations to consider additional protective measures beyond vaccines. New cooperative initiatives across Africa represent a step towards self-sufficiency, but only if they are sustained. High transmission of new variants may force governments to consider new lockdowns, further slowing economic recovery.

'Corrective' coups in Africa introduce policy dilemmas

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Diplomatic Relations ◽  
African Union ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recent Trends

Subject Trends in approaches to coups in Africa. Significance Following the introduction of multi-party politics in the 1990s, Africa gradually developed an anti-coup norm. This was institutionalised by the African Union (AU): regimes that came to power unconstitutionally were automatically suspended from membership. More recent trends are challenging this principle. Coups in Mali (2012), Burkina Faso (2014) and a recent failed attempt in Burundi have seen military leaders claiming to have intervened to 'save democracy', usually removing from office presidents failing to respect term limits. Impacts The role of African armies in peace-keeping can embolden military elites who do not have the same priorities as their Western funders. Dependence on African armies for peace-keeping acts as a bargaining chip for elites to neutralise external criticism of domestic issues. Donors still prefer African-led missions, given cost savings and the utility to bolster diplomatic relations with African states.

Burundi crisis will pose risks for the wider region

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Criminal Court ◽  
International Criminal ◽  
Criminal Court ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Heads Of State

Subject Regional risks posed by the crisis in Burundi. Significance On January 31, the African Union (AU) heads of state voted against deploying a proposed 5,000-strong peacekeeping force to Burundi to quell violence triggered by President Pierre Nkurunziza's successful bid for a third term in office. The decision indicates tacit support by many leaders, some of whom are planning similar bids. Yet they remain concerned for the wider security implications should a full civil war erupt. Impacts Tanzania's new president, John Magufuli, is best placed to lead future peace talks given his strong standing regionally and internationally. If the crisis becomes genocidal, the UNSC may consider extending its DRC peacekeeping mission's mandate to include Burundi. AU opposition to the International Criminal Court means that Nkurunziza is unlikely to face charges if he steps down or is removed.

Somalia's political transition risks destabilisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
Capital City ◽  
African Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Remote Areas ◽  
The Status ◽  
Donor States ◽  
Transitional Phase

Subject Outlook for upcoming elections. Significance The constitutional mandates of the parliament and presidency expire in August and September, respectively. Lawmakers are working to create a new political system and hold elections in order to move forward the transitional phase. However, with less than two months until the vote, critical details remain unresolved, including procedural and oversight aspects of the elections and the status of the capital city, Mogadishu. Impacts Donor states will pressure Somali authorities to complete elections without delay. Al-Shabaab will exploit communal grievances arising from the electoral crisis and try to grow its support base. International forces will continue their mission into 2017 even if some troop-contributing countries redeploy forces. Some African Union forces unable to pursue al-Shabaab in remote areas will likely focus more on force protection.

Gabon's president will consolidate his power

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
African Union ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
The Government

Subject Gabonese constitutional controversy Significance The Gabonese parliament and senate, dominated by the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), unanimously passed a revised constitution on January 10. The new constitution will reportedly not include term limits, while providing President Ali Bongo with immunity from future prosecution. The opposition, led by former African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Jean Ping, has rejected the document and described it as a setback for democracy. Impacts The legislative elections could face a fourth postponement given the slow progress in poll preparations. The government could enter the Eurobond market once more after raising 200 million dollars in an oversubscribed August issue. Bongo's administration will likely prioritise domestic over external debtors as part of a broader plan to stimulate the economy.

Brazil's third-quarter bounceback may not be sustained

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Immunisation Programme ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Emergency Assistance ◽  
Near Term

Significance The negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are still affecting the Brazilian economy. After a sharp recession in the first two quarters of the year, the economy partially recovered during the third quarter following the easing of anti-coronavirus lockdown measures. However, third-quarter growth was below market estimates and GDP remains below pre-pandemic levels. Impacts Emergency welfare assistance may be necessary well into 2021, despite mounting concerns over the fiscal deficit. The fiscal cost of emergency assistance will worry investors, but an end to aid could undermine fragile recovery. Delays in launching a COVID-19 immunisation programme put near-term economic recovery at risk.

Venezuelan migrant issue has wider regional impact

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Capital ◽  
Regional Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Impact ◽  
Near Term

Significance Signs of modest domestic economic recovery will not offset the drivers of outmigration. Xenophobia and populist agitation are fuelling violence against Venezuelan and other migrants, as most recently seen in Chile’s presidential election contest. Impacts Near-term government continuity in Venezuela suggests that migrant outflows will continue. As governments turn to more restrictive immigration strategies, current patterns of intra-regional migration will intensify. Politicians in the region will increasingly leverage political capital from anti-immigrant sentiment.

Islamic State global expansion builds resilience

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Community ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Expansion ◽  
The Past ◽  
Extremist Groups ◽  
State Group

Subject Islamic State group's expansion prospects Significance Over the past sixteen months, the international community has focused its campaign to counter the Islamic State group (ISG) primarily on Iraq and Syria. This approach overlooks ISG's accelerating regional affiliate programme, which gives ISG strategic resiliency outside of its "caliphate" within the two main countries. A strategy to defeat ISG cannot succeed without addressing its formal affiliates in Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and elsewhere. Impacts ISG's affiliate in Egypt will rekindle ties with extremist groups on mainland Egypt in order to launch more attacks. ISG will encourage new supporters globally to launch spectacular terrorist attacks. Russia's escalation in Syria will aid ISG's expansion by degrading the Syrian opposition and ensuring the continuation of the civil war.

Algeria Islamists may boost influence at May election

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
International Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Islamic Values ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Since the elections of 1991, which led to a decade of civil war, parliamentary polls have generally taken place in a tense atmosphere, with protests, riots and boycotts. As the health of 80-year-old President Abdelaziz Bouteflika remains precarious, the regime seeks to demonstrate stability and security to the population and the international community by conducting the elections as smoothly as possible. Impacts Secular opposition parties are fragmented and unable to ally or challenge the governing FLN and RND. Islamist parties are likely to increase their presence in parliament but are unlikely to receive more than one-third of the 462 seats. Islamic values may play a more important role in educational, social and judiciary matters (eg, family rights).

South Sudan’s government will hinder aid efforts

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Assistance ◽  
The Past ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Near Term

Significance South Sudan’s civil war is now in its fourth year, during which the intensity and extent of fighting has fluctuated. Despite the notional maintenance of the August 2015 peace agreement, security has deteriorated in the past year. The spread of violence has produced waves of displacement, with hundreds of thousands of South Sudanese fleeing to Uganda. Impacts The government’s fiscal position will not improve in the near term. Army units, as well as pro- and anti-government militias, will continue to be predatory towards aid. International assistance for South Sudan will overwhelmingly centre on humanitarian activities rather than longer-term development.

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