Russian direct Afghan intervention is unlikely for now

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Domestic Policies

Significance Fear of Afghanistan-related instability spilling into Central Asia has already prompted the Kremlin to announce that it will reinforce its military presence in Tajikistan. Impacts Its Central Asian military build-up will aid Russian regional prestige, dented by financial woes and contagion issues. Central Asian authorities may use Afghanistan worries to justify repressive domestic policies. Turkmenistan may seek new security partners and rethink its permanent neutrality status.

Unstable Central Asia will drive Russian regional ties

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Capability ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Foreign Operations ◽  
Military Support ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
Vladimir Putin

Subject Russia security and military interests in Central Asia. Significance On January 8, Dushanbe announced the names of four Tajikistani soldiers abducted by unidentified Afghanistan groups. With international forces largely ending their mission in Afghanistan on December 28, concern is growing regarding the threat posed to Central Asia. Central Asian nations are likely to have to cooperate more and rely on Russian military support. Moscow maintains a sizeable military presence in Tajikistan and an air base in Kyrgyzstan. In January, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to serve in the Russian military, which could lead to sizeable numbers of Central Asians enlisting. Impacts Russian military capability for deniable foreign operations will grow if significant numbers of foreigners enlist. A security clampdown in Uzbekistan in the run-up to the March presidential election is likely. States will probably arm local non-governmental groups to help police borders with Afghanistan.

Combatting organised crime and terrorism in Central Asia

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma van Santen
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Organised Crime ◽  
The State ◽  
State Crime ◽  
International Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Terrorist Groups

Purpose This paper aims to examine the shift away from the traditional distinction between organised crime and terrorist groups towards their conceptual convergence under the crime-terror nexus narrative in the context of international security and development policy in post-Soviet Central Asia. It assesses the empirical basis for the crime-terror and state-crime nexus in three Central Asian countries – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – and argues that the exclusion of the state from the analytical framework undermines the relevance of the crime-terror paradigm for policy-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on a literature review of academic research, recent case studies highlighting new empirical evidence in Central Asia and international policy publications. Findings There is a weak empirical connection between organised crime and Islamic extremists, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizbut Tahrir, in Central Asia. The state-crime paradigm, including concepts of criminal capture, criminal sovereignty and criminal penetration, hold more explanatory power for international policy in Central Asia. The crime-terror paradigm has resulted in a narrow and ineffective security-oriented law enforcement approach to counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism but does not address the underlying weak state governance structures and political grievances that motivate organised crime and terrorist groups respectively. Originality/value International policy and scholarship is currently focussed on the areas of convergence between organised crime and terrorist groups. This paper highlights the continued relevance of the traditional conceptual separation of terrorist and organised crime groups based on their different motives, methods and relationship with the state, for security and democratic governance initiatives in the under-researched Central Asian region.

Most Central Asian states are comfortable with Taliban

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Heroin Trafficking ◽  
Central Asian Republics

Significance The Taliban victory creates threats and some opportunities for Central Asian republics, three of which -- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan -- border on Afghanistan. All except Tajikistan have indicated they will work with the new Afghan authorities. Impacts Russia and Central Asian states, except Tajikistan up to a point, will not back anti-Taliban resistance groups. Weak Afghan governance creates more scope for heroin trafficking through Central Asia. Although China is the more important economic player in Central Asia, it will defer to Russia on security matters.

China will build buffer with Afghanistan

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Presence ◽  
Security Assistance ◽  
Rising Power ◽  
Political Leverage ◽  
Regional Governments

Subject Chinese security assistance to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Significance China is reportedly providing direct aid to Afghanistan's security forces, including base-building, contributions of equipment and joint patrols to strengthen links and capacity. Some interpret this as a sign of a rising power expanding its military activities beyond its borders and expect Beijing to become more active in the region's political affairs. Impacts Chinese economic involvement in Tajikistan may eventually bring some political leverage. Expanding Chinese economic involvement with Central Asia does not necessarily mean a greater military presence will follow. Regional governments and Western stakeholders alike will be frustrated by China's unwillingness to take a leadership role in Afghanistan.

Central Asian states face high climate change risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Irrigation Canals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
The World ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
International Climate

Subject Climate change in Central Asia. Significance As the Central Asian states emerge from months of sweltering summer temperatures, attention is increasingly turning to the effects of climate change. In a region always short of rainfall and dependent on glacier-fed rivers, rising global temperatures look set to have deeper and swifter impacts than in many other parts of the world. Impacts International climate change responses will have limited impacts on Central Asian specifics. Regional structures may become more effective as the situation's urgency becomes apparent. One part-solution involves repairing irrigation canals to reduce massive leakage.

Central Asia drives Syria repatriations to reduce risk

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Women And Children ◽  
Muslim Majority ◽  
Reduce Risk

Subject Central Asian policies on repatriating nationals associated with Middle East insurgency. Significance Central Asian governments' concerns about radicalisation among Muslim-majority populations were amplified when hundreds of nationals went to Syria and Iraq in 2014-15 to join Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups. They are prioritising the repatriation of women and children, in contrast to European governments' reluctance to approve blanket returns. Impacts The security drive against local extremists will be sustained across Central Asia. Policies towards returning women will not be affected by IS-attributed attacks unless a direct link is made. In Russia, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is leading on repatriation efforts focused on children.

Central Asian states confirm common drive to cooperate

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Common Drive

Headline CENTRAL ASIA: States confirm common drive to cooperate

China and Russia plan to import more Central Asian gas

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Asian

Headline CENTRAL ASIA/CHINA: Russia and China to buy more gas

US aims to check Russia in Central Asia 'Great Game'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Human Rights Abuses ◽  
Secretary Of State ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Great Game ◽  
Public Criticism

Subject US relations with Central Asia. Significance US Secretary of State John Kerry visited Central Asia in early November, in an effort to boost Washington's influence in a region that is increasingly dominated by Russia and also China. Central Asian states worry that the region has declined in importance for the United States, owing to Washington's overall drawdown of forces in Afghanistan. Impacts Over-reliance on remittances will pose major risk to Central Asian economies. Central Asian states will continue to try and extract concessions from United States, Russia and China. Washington will diminish its public criticism of human rights abuses in Central Asia but maintain pressure in private.

Prospects for Central Asia in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
The World ◽  
State Group ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Central Asia in 2016. Significance In October, both the World Bank and the IMF downgraded Central Asia's economic growth outlook for 2016. The previous month, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had signalled the rising influence of extremist organisations, first and foremost the Islamic State group (ISG) across the region. Central Asian regimes are faced with a multitude of risks, including political destabilisation.

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