Loyalist parliament could still test Egypt's Sisi

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Big Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Stark Contrast ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Clear Majority

Significance This will be followed by a second round on November 22-23, with run-off votes after each round to decide seats with no clear majority. Impacts With pro-business figures expected to dominate, parliament is likely to support legislation encouraging foreign investment. The election could aggravate popular disaffection with a political process seen as serving the security state and big business. In a stark contrast to previous parliaments, the Muslim Brotherhood will have next to no representation in the legislature.

Ruling Islamists set to win Morocco local elections

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Working Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Court ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Backlash

Significance King Mohammed VI has committed forces to the Saudi-led coalition conducing operations in Yemen to reinforce the alliance with Gulf states. It may be because of these ties that Morocco's Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) survived the regional political backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood -- with which the PJD has some parallels, but no formal links. Prime Minister and PJD leader Abdelilah Benkirane has developed a close working relationship with King Mohammed and the royal court. With the economy performing well, Benkirane's chances of prolonging his mandate look promising. Impacts Local elections will signal the level of popular support for the PJD. If Benkirane retains the premiership post-2016, he may seek a more prominent role for the PJD -- in cabinet and the civil service. This could bring him into conflict with the king.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

Qatar could become a low-profile mediator

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Significance This followed Qatar's December 14 rejection of Egyptian charges that it had assisted the Islamist perpetrator of a bomb attack on a cathedral in Cairo. The accusation is the legacy of a pre-2013 era of activist foreign policy and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and others, the country has since returned to the Gulf Arab fold, but relations with Egypt remain tense. Impacts Even if recovering energy prices ease the fiscal situation in 2017, foreign policy is likely to be cautious. The legacy of previous unsuccessful mediation efforts in Yemen could compromise Qatar’s role in conflict-resolution efforts. Qatar is not as strongly involved in Libya as before, but maintains low-profile ties with Tripolitanian, Islamist-leaning groups. Ties with Riyadh could strengthen further after a high-profile visit by King Salman on December 5.

Gulf split heralds new uses for cyber capabilities

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Action ◽  
News Agency ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Actual Conflict ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Over Time

Significance The Qatar crisis in June 2017 was similarly sparked by a piece of ‘fake news’ planted on Doha’s national news agency showing the Qatari emir as expressing support for Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood movement. The incidents are part of a rising trend of offensive cyber actions and government-backed social media contestation in the region. They may also be the first examples of a combined cyber and physical strategy achieving core foreign policy goals just short of actual conflict. Impacts The GCC’s high online presence and draconian regulatory framework will make social media a key arena for covert state action. Interpretation of past events will fragment, meaning divisions such as the GCC split harden over time and become difficult to reverse. As GCC states’ attitudes to Iran diverge further, their Western allies will find regional diplomacy more labour-intensive.

Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood will stress moderation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Politics ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Opposition Movement

Subject The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Significance After facing fragmentation in 2015, the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan (MBJ) sought to re-engage in local politics. The September 2016 electoral success of its political wing, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), revitalised its role as a leading opposition movement. Following reports that the new US administration was debating the designation of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), its parent movement, as a terrorist organisation, the MBJ on January 23 announced an end to its 14-year boycott of dialogue with Washington. Impacts Jordanian authorities could be suspicious of the MBJ’s outreach to Washington, fearing it might become a conduit for US pressure. Radical ideologies may become more prevalent because of rising unemployment, outflanking the MBJ but enhancing its ‘moderate’ credentials. Regional and international instability could force the government and Brotherhood to work together to manage domestic dissent.

United Arab Emirates will maintain strong stability

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Strong Stability ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
State Group

Subject UAE politics and internal security. Significance In a turbulent region, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a rare island of stability. Yet rising concern about Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamic State group (ISG) has led to mass arrests and an assertive foreign policy in recent years. The internal stability outlook will also be determined by leadership transitions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the relationship between these two emirates, and popular reactions to economic adjustments to low oil prices. Impacts There is a small but real risk of terrorist attacks, but any incidents are unlikely to harm the business environment. Abu Dhabi and Dubai's differences over Iran will remain challenging in the post-sanctions environment. Differences with Saudi Arabia over the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in Yemen could become serious if southern Yemen tries to secede.

Egypt's Sinai smuggling links Islamic State to Hamas

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gaza Strip ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Security Force ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Umbrella Organisation ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
The Gaza Strip ◽  
State Group

Subject Links between Hamas and ISG. Significance Egyptian and Israeli authorities claim that the Islamic State group (ISG) in Sinai is receiving support from Hamas, the Palestinian militant group ruling the Gaza Strip. Hamas political leaders and spokesmen deny any connection. ISG and Hamas disagree over ideology, governance and fighting Israel, and Hamas often suppresses ISG-inspired groups in Gaza. ISG propaganda criticises Hamas and its umbrella-organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet there are strategic reasons for a transactional relationship between Hamas and ISG Sinai. Impacts Support for ISG Sinai by Hamas's military wing complicates efforts, promoted by Saudi Arabia, for Egyptian-Hamas reconciliation. Egyptian politicians will use Hamas as a scapegoat for security force losses in ISG Sinai attacks. Hamas forces will monitor the border with Sinai more closely to watch for infiltration by jihadists.

Al-Nour Party's influence in Egypt will be limited

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
The State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Group ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Significance Al-Nour Party was the only Islamist political group to participate in the elections. However, the conservative Salafist party has seen its fortunes decline, from being the second most successful party in the relatively diverse political landscape of 2011-13, to an underperforming one in the current parliamentary elections. Impacts Al-Nour's lack of credibility among Egyptian Islamists will obstruct its development. As a result the Muslim Brotherhood will have greater influence as and when the regime reconciles with political Islamists. Supporters of the state, especially the media, will view al-Nour as an extension of the Brotherhood.

Egypt repression may lead to new Brotherhood offshoots

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Youth Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Subject Muslim Brotherhood fragmentation. Significance Rumours of reconciliation between President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi and the Muslim Brotherhood, circling since June 2016, have intensified in recent months. Although there is no concrete evidence confirming the validity of the claims or that an agreement is currently plausible, the rumour is indicative of pressure that the Muslim Brotherhood is under. Impacts The Brotherhood will find it difficult to retain its pre-revolution form. A youth group offshoot could take a more aggressive and violent approach towards the regime. Despite the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood's suppression and marginalisation, it will retain support and political presence in the region.

scholarly journals «The Muslim Brotherhood» and prospects of the political process in contemporary Egypt

2013 ◽  
pp. 42-46
Author(s):  
M. Z. Razhbadinov
Keyword(s):  
Political Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Arab Region ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Democratic State ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
Future Situation ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
The Relationship

The article focuses on the role of the moderate islamists movement «The Muslim Brotherhood» in current political situation in Egypt. «The Muslim Brotherhood» is the most organized and powerful force in contemporary Egypt. The author deals with ideology and strategy of the movement, the relationship with other political forces, internal differences and opportunities in power. He concludes that the «Cairo effect» caused long overdue tectonic shift in the Arab region. Egypt has begun its move to build up a democratic state but with their own specifics. The future situation in the country will depend on the relationship «The Muslim Brotherhood» with the army and political secular powers. The country has just started to move in the way that Turkey did a few decades ago

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