Ruling Islamists set to win Morocco local elections

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Working Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Royal Court ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Backlash

Significance King Mohammed VI has committed forces to the Saudi-led coalition conducing operations in Yemen to reinforce the alliance with Gulf states. It may be because of these ties that Morocco's Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) survived the regional political backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood -- with which the PJD has some parallels, but no formal links. Prime Minister and PJD leader Abdelilah Benkirane has developed a close working relationship with King Mohammed and the royal court. With the economy performing well, Benkirane's chances of prolonging his mandate look promising. Impacts Local elections will signal the level of popular support for the PJD. If Benkirane retains the premiership post-2016, he may seek a more prominent role for the PJD -- in cabinet and the civil service. This could bring him into conflict with the king.

Ties with India depend on Iran's normalisation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Missed Opportunities ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gulf States ◽  
Trade Relationships ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.

Russia will seek influence in Moldova's Gagauz region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
European Parties ◽  
Potential Pressure ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.

Libya unity deal will produce patchy stability

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
National Congress ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
To Come

Significance The deal aims to create a 'Government of National Accord' to resolve the rivalry between the two competing parliaments, the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). Although the HoR signed the deal, the GNC refused to accept it. Yet several other important GNC allies signed the agreement. This skirted outright failure of the UN peace process, but gives the mooted unity government a very shaky basis on which to proceed. Impacts Fissures within the Muslim Brotherhood and the GNC will likely dilute their influence in Libya. The UN Security Council will increase pressure on rejectionists to come into the fold or face sanctions and isolation. The deal may well result in peaceful, functioning areas, such as Misrata, keen to attract investment. However, other areas, such as Benghazi, will likely continue to see violence, which would cloud prospects for investment in stable areas.

Loyalist parliament could still test Egypt's Sisi

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Big Business ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Stark Contrast ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Clear Majority

Significance This will be followed by a second round on November 22-23, with run-off votes after each round to decide seats with no clear majority. Impacts With pro-business figures expected to dominate, parliament is likely to support legislation encouraging foreign investment. The election could aggravate popular disaffection with a political process seen as serving the security state and big business. In a stark contrast to previous parliaments, the Muslim Brotherhood will have next to no representation in the legislature.

Qatar could become a low-profile mediator

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Low Profile ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood

Significance This followed Qatar's December 14 rejection of Egyptian charges that it had assisted the Islamist perpetrator of a bomb attack on a cathedral in Cairo. The accusation is the legacy of a pre-2013 era of activist foreign policy and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. Under pressure from Saudi Arabia and others, the country has since returned to the Gulf Arab fold, but relations with Egypt remain tense. Impacts Even if recovering energy prices ease the fiscal situation in 2017, foreign policy is likely to be cautious. The legacy of previous unsuccessful mediation efforts in Yemen could compromise Qatar’s role in conflict-resolution efforts. Qatar is not as strongly involved in Libya as before, but maintains low-profile ties with Tripolitanian, Islamist-leaning groups. Ties with Riyadh could strengthen further after a high-profile visit by King Salman on December 5.

Gulf split heralds new uses for cyber capabilities

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Action ◽  
News Agency ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
Actual Conflict ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Over Time

Significance The Qatar crisis in June 2017 was similarly sparked by a piece of ‘fake news’ planted on Doha’s national news agency showing the Qatari emir as expressing support for Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood movement. The incidents are part of a rising trend of offensive cyber actions and government-backed social media contestation in the region. They may also be the first examples of a combined cyber and physical strategy achieving core foreign policy goals just short of actual conflict. Impacts The GCC’s high online presence and draconian regulatory framework will make social media a key arena for covert state action. Interpretation of past events will fragment, meaning divisions such as the GCC split harden over time and become difficult to reverse. As GCC states’ attitudes to Iran diverge further, their Western allies will find regional diplomacy more labour-intensive.

Local election wins raise Hungarian opposition hopes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election

Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.

Italy's Renzi set to continue political reform drive

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Turbulence ◽  
Italian Politics ◽  
The Right ◽  
Political Scene

Subject The Italian political scene ahead of the May 31 regional and local elections. Significance Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) has consolidated his political authority in his party and parliament. The balance of political power has shifted in favour of the left. Renzi has made progress on institutional reforms, most notably of the electoral system, that promise to enhance Italy's longer-term governability. Renzi's strengthened political position, the current relative stability of Italian politics and the prospect of more authoritative Italian governments in future would all provide Italy some insulation in the event of renewed financial market turbulence prompted by a Greek default. Impacts Renzi currently stands out as the left's most successful leader of a major EU state. Italian reformers seeking to consolidate party leadership authority and simplify decision-making have generally come from the right. Renzi has made more progress in these areas than former centre-right Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi achieved. If Renzi secures his planned reform of the Senate, as seems likely, it would further boost both Renzi and Italy's governability.

Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Significant Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Prospects for East Asia in the second quarter of 2015. Significance Pronouncements made at the National People's Congress (NPC), which opened in Beijing yesterday, will give pointers on policy during the coming months. Debt has become a significant issue in the assessment of China's economic outlook. In Japan, nationwide local elections in April could see setbacks for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, hit in recent days by political funding scandals. Meanwhile, annual large-scale military exercises have just begun in South Korea, antagonising Pyongyang.

Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood will stress moderation

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Politics ◽  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Opposition Movement

Subject The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Significance After facing fragmentation in 2015, the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan (MBJ) sought to re-engage in local politics. The September 2016 electoral success of its political wing, the Islamic Action Front (IAF), revitalised its role as a leading opposition movement. Following reports that the new US administration was debating the designation of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), its parent movement, as a terrorist organisation, the MBJ on January 23 announced an end to its 14-year boycott of dialogue with Washington. Impacts Jordanian authorities could be suspicious of the MBJ’s outreach to Washington, fearing it might become a conduit for US pressure. Radical ideologies may become more prevalent because of rising unemployment, outflanking the MBJ but enhancing its ‘moderate’ credentials. Regional and international instability could force the government and Brotherhood to work together to manage domestic dissent.

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