Permanent EU asylum reforms will be hard in crisis

Significance The EU's 'Dublin' asylum system, whereby protection responsibilities rest with the first EU state of entry, has broken down under the scale of the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Scenes in Europe have shocked many and highlighted EU states' failure to agree on the distribution and nature of internal responsibility for asylum-seekers. Impacts The internal measures under discussion will be insufficient to manage the flows of people reaching Europe's borders. Further action on foreign policy, migration, crime and humanitarian and development aid will remain necessary to address migration drivers. Given the CEE states' stance, the outcome of Poland's October parliamentary election could have a critical policy impact.

Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.


Significance Pashinyan promises radical changes at home but continuity in foreign policy after his alliance won a landslide victory in a December 9 parliamentary election that legitimised the revolutionary transition of power he has led this year. Before the street protests that brought Pashinyan to power in May, the Republican Party's ruling position seemed unassailable. Now it has failed to win enough votes to be awarded seats in parliament. Impacts The peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections is a substantial positive step and may set a positive precedent. Pashinyan's alliance has five years of parliamentary dominance to pursue reforms. Moscow and Yerevan will eye one another nervously for months or years, watching for signs of policy change.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerasimos Tsourapas

Can labor emigration form part of a state’s foreign policy goals? The relevant literature links emigration to states’ developmental needs, which does not explain why some states choose to economically subsidize their citizens’ emigration. This article explores for the first time the soft power importance of high-skilled emigration from authoritarian emigration states. It finds that the Egyptian state under Gamal Abdel Nasser employed labor emigration for two distinct purposes linked to broader soft power interests: first, as an instrument of cultural diplomacy to spread revolutionary ideals of Arab unity and anti-imperialism across the Middle East; second, as a tool for disseminating development aid, particularly in Yemen and sub-Saharan Africa. Drawing on Arabic and non-Arabic primary sources, the article identifies the interplay between foreign policy and cross-border mobility, while also sketching an evolving research agenda on authoritarian emigration states’ policy-making.


Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2020. Significance Moscow cannot compete with US or Chinese economic power, so is maximising local advantages and expanding its footprint in selected foreign theatres, particularly the Middle East, and trying to supplant US interests where it is able. Russia is still looking for openings to repair economic relations with major partners despite the constraints of Western sanctions.


Significance As intended, the changes will temporarily ease the Conservative Party's internal atmosphere, most importantly before the October annual party conference. However, they are unlikely to alter the fundamentals of the referendum or its outcome. The more significant internal party battle will be over the terms of Prime Minister David Cameron's EU membership renegotiation. Impacts The government could still face a September 7 House of Commons defeat over 'purdah', despite its reversal on the issue. This would boost eurosceptic elements in the Labour Party before the September 12 leadership election result. Cameron's wish to discourage migration from the Middle East could intensify his foreign policy focus on the region.


Significance President Barack Obama has drawn criticism from traditional US allies over a series of interviews with Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic magazine entitled 'The Obama Doctrine', in which the president described his foreign policy views and frustration with perceived 'free riding' by European and Gulf security partners. Impacts Washington will take a tougher line on authoritarian moves by Turkey than the EU. US attention may return to the Middle East in the event of state collapse or unchecked territorial advances by jihadist groups. Israeli settlement expansions will place a ceiling on post-Obama improvements to relations.


Significance Diplomats from 26 countries attended, including US Secretary of State John Kerry and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini. Its originality lay in the absence of the two protagonists, Israel and the internationally recognised representative of the Palestinians, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO), as well as in a clear French intention to put pressure on them and retake the initiative in the Middle East. Impacts Owing to vague expectations and minimal US commitment, the conference was not perceived as the major diplomatic breakthrough once hoped for. The meeting might restart Euro-Mediterranean and possibly French-Arab cooperation on the topic. In the absence of progress in peace negotiations, the PLO will look to more unilateral measures against Israel in international fora.


Significance He travelled to Beirut the day after the devastating port explosion on August 6, calling on the political elite to implement far-reaching reforms while directly promising the Lebanese people on the streets that he would not abandon them. In addition to deep historic and cultural ties, Macron's gamble is underpinned by various French strategic interests. Impacts France's acceptance of Hezbollah will undermine its efforts to gain international cooperation on its policy towards Lebanon. Macron's foreign policy assertiveness in Lebanon, and other regions such as the Sahel, is unlikely to strengthen his domestic support. French-UK security cooperation will remain strong in the Middle East after Brexit.


Subject Tanzanian foreign policy outlook. Significance On May 30, new Foreign Minister Palamagamba Kabudi told parliament that, under President John Magufuli, Tanzania would never ‘kneel’ before donors to obtain aid. Kabudi’s statement -- and his recent appointment -- suggest a deep underlying shift is underway in Tanzanian foreign policy. Impacts The government will put more pressure on revenue authorities to use tax to compensate for slowing development aid. Authorities will actively enforce strict new investment and natural resources laws, to squeeze revenue from local and foreign investors. If domestic revenue falls short, the government may still reluctantly turn to traditional donors, or Chinese loans with fewer conditions. Tanzania will likely try to initiate and encourage more business deals with regional neighbours.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document