Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2020

Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2020. Significance Moscow cannot compete with US or Chinese economic power, so is maximising local advantages and expanding its footprint in selected foreign theatres, particularly the Middle East, and trying to supplant US interests where it is able. Russia is still looking for openings to repair economic relations with major partners despite the constraints of Western sanctions.

Subject Prospects for Russian foreign policy in 2018. Significance Relations with the United States under President Donald Trump have failed to improve in the ways Moscow hoped and sanctions have intensified rather than eased. Moscow is therefore maintaining confrontational strategies towards the West while consolidating existing ties with China, Iran and Syria, and diversifying into new areas of the Middle East and East Asia.


1996 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark N. Katz

AbstractSince the breakup of the USSR in 1991, there has been significant change in Moscow's Middle East policy. During much of the Cold War, Moscow sought to project Soviet influence throughout even the far off Arab region of the Middle East. In the post-Cold War era, though, Russian foreign policy has focused on that part of the Middle East closest to the former USSR-the Northern Tier. This article will examine the major aspects of post-Cold War Russian foreign policy toward the Middle East in order to identify Moscow's multiple goals in the region and discuss Moscow's capacity for achieving them. First, though, a brief review of the different stages of Imperial and Soviet foreign policy toward the region is necessary in order to show the extent to which post-Cold War Russian foreign policy toward the Middle East has and has not changed.


Subject Russian foreign policy in 2016. Significance Russian foreign policy is driven by an amalgam of realpolitik, nationalism and anti-Western ideology, and consists of both defensive and offensive strategies. The robust, confrontational approach championed by President Vladimir Putin in recent years has produced successes in such areas as the military campaign in Syria, but an undecided outcome in Ukraine and mixed results in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Impacts A NATO summit this July may result in a tougher, more coordinated stance on Russia. Following its official partial withdrawal from Syria, the Russian military will conduct selective attacks. Russia will need careful diplomacy to keep Belarus and Kazakhstan from drifting away as allies.


Significance The EU's 'Dublin' asylum system, whereby protection responsibilities rest with the first EU state of entry, has broken down under the scale of the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Scenes in Europe have shocked many and highlighted EU states' failure to agree on the distribution and nature of internal responsibility for asylum-seekers. Impacts The internal measures under discussion will be insufficient to manage the flows of people reaching Europe's borders. Further action on foreign policy, migration, crime and humanitarian and development aid will remain necessary to address migration drivers. Given the CEE states' stance, the outcome of Poland's October parliamentary election could have a critical policy impact.


Subject Prospects for India in 2016. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has accelerated its agenda of piecemeal and sequential reform following his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s defeat in the Bihar elections last month. As difficult state elections approach in the first half of 2016, the government is banking on these reforms and headline growth to secure voter and investor support. In foreign policy, the government is likely to focus on regions of strategic importance, especially Russia and the Middle East.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Significance Bolsonaro’s visit to Davos was his first foreign trip since taking office on January 1. His speech, while trying to portray Brazil as “open for business”, also reinforced the radical change his government is promoting in the country’s foreign policy, from a tradition of pragmatism and multilateralism to a highly ideological and nationalistic stance. This move is less the result of a calculated international strategy than part of an effort to strengthen Bolsonaro’s domestic agenda. Impacts Bolsonaro will struggle to balance “open for business” promises with his nationalistic foreign policy. Emulating Trump’s aggressive stance without having the United States' military and economic power risks seriously weakening Brazil globally. Brazil’s new climate change scepticism will further weaken global efforts in this area.


Author(s):  
Nataliya Khoma ◽  
Yevhenija Voznyuk

The peculiarities of Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East in 2002-2020 are studied. Turkey’s intentions to establish itself as an influential Eurasian state, which claims leadership in the Middle East, as well as in the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia, were noted. The authors indicate the concept and foreign policy doctrine of “Zero Problems with Neighbors” as the ideological basis for Turkey’s transition from a peripheral to a central role in international politics. It is emphasized that the doctrine of “Zero problems with neighbors” has become a revision of traditional Kemalist values in Turkey’s foreign policy. The authors of the article evaluate the practical implementation of the doctrine as an unsuccessful attempt to become a regional leader in the Middle East. It was emphasized that at the beginning of the implementation of the concept of “Zero problems with neighbors” the only goal of the Turkish government was really to establish good neighborly relations, but after the beginning of the “Arab Spring” foreign policy strategy was revised. It was noted that in the last decade the Turkish government has reoriented to a more pragmatic foreign policy direction; it is determined by the main purpose of protecting its national interests; the result was partial Turkey isolation. The article expresses author’s vision that Turkey in its foreign policy has obviously moved from the concept of “Zero problems with neighbors” to the practice of “zero friends”. It is proved that: 1) Turkey’s relations with the Middle East (except Qatar) are quite tense; 2) although there is a partnership with many countries in the Middle East, it is often based on pragmatic mutual interest of countries, and cooperation often does not go beyond trade and economic relations.


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