Rising nationalism will drive Tanzanian foreign policy

Subject Tanzanian foreign policy outlook. Significance On May 30, new Foreign Minister Palamagamba Kabudi told parliament that, under President John Magufuli, Tanzania would never ‘kneel’ before donors to obtain aid. Kabudi’s statement -- and his recent appointment -- suggest a deep underlying shift is underway in Tanzanian foreign policy. Impacts The government will put more pressure on revenue authorities to use tax to compensate for slowing development aid. Authorities will actively enforce strict new investment and natural resources laws, to squeeze revenue from local and foreign investors. If domestic revenue falls short, the government may still reluctantly turn to traditional donors, or Chinese loans with fewer conditions. Tanzania will likely try to initiate and encourage more business deals with regional neighbours.

Subject Brazilian foreign policy under Aloysio Nunes. Significance Senator Aloysio Nunes, who took office as foreign minister on March 7, is an experienced politician from the centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB). He led the bloc supporting the government of President Michel Temer in the Senate, where he was also since 2015 head of the Commission of Foreign Affairs and National Defence. Nunes replaces Jose Serra at the foreign ministry and will seek overall continuity of Serra's agenda focused on the pursuit of trade opening and border security. Impacts Brazil lacks a clear strategy for its crucial relationship with China. Border security, a key issue for Serra, will remain important for Nunes. Domestic politics may divert Nunes’s attention as the 2018 elections approach.


Subject Potentially interesting IPOs in Kazakhstan. Significance On November 24, Kazakhstani Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Volkov said that a new round of large-scale privatisations would help stimulate the development of the private sector. Given that the price of oil is likely to stay low for some time, optimisation of public spending is a key priority for Astana. The government's planned exit from state-owned enterprises should also bolster the latter's management and profitability. Impacts The privatisation programme may enable the government to refocus efforts on economic recovery. Corruption will remain a principal obstacle to the successful implementation of privatisation plans. Proximity to political influencers will be a valuable asset for foreign investors keen to partake in the privatisation drive.


Subject Foreign policy in the Michel Temer government. Significance New Foreign Minister Jose Serra seeks to signal a radical departure from policy under the centre-left governments of suspended President Dilma Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nowhere is this more visible than in trade, where the Foreign Ministry has taken over policy responsibility from the Ministry for Development, Industry and Foreign Trade. The governing idea is that Brazil should abandon its focus on multilateral negotiations under the WTO framework and embrace regional trade deals from which it has largely abstained. Impacts As a political 'heavyweight', Serra boosts the role of the Foreign Ministry in the government. His apparent ambition to use the ministry as a launching pad for a 2018 presidential bid will not necessarily undermine his performance. However, it will force him to show significant results quickly.


Significance The decision followed Mexico’s hosting in June of the forty-seventh General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS), during which a Mexico-led proposal to condemn the Venezuelan government of President Nicolas Maduro for anti-democratic practices failed to secure the necessary votes. Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said that despite this outcome, Mexico would maintain a critical stance towards the Maduro regime due to its human rights abuses and refusal to respect social and political liberties. His statement confirms a recent shift in Mexico’s traditional non-interventionist foreign policy posture. Impacts Washington’s hostility will add urgency to Mexico’s efforts to redefine its foreign policy stance. The mismatch between Mexico’s foreign policy positions and its domestic reality will raise awkward questions for the government. Lopez Obrador will face increasing pressure to condemn Maduro, and assertions that his leftist presidency would ruin Mexico.


Significance The February 29 parliamentary elections resulted in the defeat of ruling left-nationalist Direction-Social Democracy (Smer-SD), which has led Slovakia’s government for 12 (3 4-year terms) of the 16 years that Slovakia has been a member of the EU. The incoming four-party centre-right government of Igor Matovic, while generally conservative on social issues, will be reformist and pro-EU on economic and foreign policy. Impacts While populist, the new Slovak government will diverge from its Central European neighbours in not promoting ‘illiberalism’. There should be continuity in Slovakia’s foreign policy, with a professional diplomat as foreign minister. The government supports EU membership, despite some parties demonstrating soft Euroscepticism.


Significance President Mauricio Macri's recent participation in the Davos World Economic Forum (WEF) represents the start of a new approach in Argentine foreign policy. Foreign relations are one of the areas in which policy shifts will be most evident, due in part to the fact that the executive has greater autonomy vis-a-vis Congress than in other areas. The unexpected appointment of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's former chief of staff, Susana Malcorra, as foreign minister has been widely welcomed. Impacts Relations with traditional partners like the United States and EU will take precedence over allies like Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. The government will seek to conduct relations with the largest number of countries in an "intelligent and pragmatic" way. Congress is likely to prove a stumbling block in efforts to resolve outstanding defaulted debt.


Significance The move follows Mexico’s hosting of a Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) summit last month, and provides an opportunity to expand the country’s international profile. However, AMLO generally disregards foreign policy, except as a tool for advancing domestic interests and building public support. Impacts US relations will continue to dominate foreign policy, despite AMLO’s critical rhetoric about rich nations. In the short term, Mexico will frame its foreign policy around calls for increased access to COVID-19 vaccines. Mexico’s energy policy could become a source of international tension, given its potential implications for foreign investors.


2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Chapnick

In January 2019, a leading Canadian foreign policy blog, OpenCanada.org, declared that “[u]nder the government of Justin Trudeau, Canada has embraced a feminist foreign policy—gradually at first, and with fervor over the past year.” Although critics have debated the policy’s effectiveness, the embrace, if not also the fervor, was indisputable. By 2019, the Trudeau government’s second foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, was proclaiming Canada’s feminist approach to international relations openly and regularly. The international community had also noticed. This article investigates the origins of the new Canadian foreign policy “brand.” It finds that, contrary to popular thinking, the prime minister himself played at most a minor role in the initiation of what became a full-fledged transformation of Canada’s global image.


Significance The government has changed hands only once since independence in 1966: in 1992 the People's Progressive Party (PPP), led by Cheddi Jagan, assumed power following 26 years of People's National Congress (PNC) government. Since the last election in 2011 the government has been hamstrung by a parliament in which a coalition of opposition parties, including the PNC, held a one-seat majority. The result has been gridlock, with no new legislation approved, and continuous disputes over the budget, government spending and agreements with foreign investors. Impacts The election could allow a new government to work toward consensus-building. This might facilitate policies to develop Guyana's potential, and narrow the socioeconomic gap with the rest of the region. If the result is close, political tension and deadlock will persist, undermining the business climate, investment and social progress.


Subject Myanmar's business environment. Significance The government is instituting measures to improve the business climate and attract foreign direct investment (FDI) into the economy. As part of this effort, on February 24, it instituted the Competition Act. However, while there has been an influx of new FDI, foreign investors remain wary -- largely because of the challenges of navigating Myanmar's old and complex regulatory environment. Impacts Economic reforms could slow in the event of an opposition electoral victory, as the new government gains experience. Improvements to the business environment could be constrained by a faltering or failed ethnic peace process. Regulatory reforms backed up by effective administration could contribute to equitable economic growth.


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