Armenian election lays way for 'revolutionary' project

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Positive Step ◽  
At Home

Significance Pashinyan promises radical changes at home but continuity in foreign policy after his alliance won a landslide victory in a December 9 parliamentary election that legitimised the revolutionary transition of power he has led this year. Before the street protests that brought Pashinyan to power in May, the Republican Party's ruling position seemed unassailable. Now it has failed to win enough votes to be awarded seats in parliament. Impacts The peaceful transfer of power through free and fair elections is a substantial positive step and may set a positive precedent. Pashinyan's alliance has five years of parliamentary dominance to pursue reforms. Moscow and Yerevan will eye one another nervously for months or years, watching for signs of policy change.

Permanent EU asylum reforms will be hard in crisis

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
Development Aid ◽  
Policy Impact ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical Policy

Significance The EU's 'Dublin' asylum system, whereby protection responsibilities rest with the first EU state of entry, has broken down under the scale of the influx of refugees and migrants from the Middle East and Africa. Scenes in Europe have shocked many and highlighted EU states' failure to agree on the distribution and nature of internal responsibility for asylum-seekers. Impacts The internal measures under discussion will be insufficient to manage the flows of people reaching Europe's borders. Further action on foreign policy, migration, crime and humanitarian and development aid will remain necessary to address migration drivers. Given the CEE states' stance, the outcome of Poland's October parliamentary election could have a critical policy impact.

Outflanked Iran will follow Russia's lead on Karabakh

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Regional Trade ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conflict Zone ◽  
Foreign Policy Change

Significance The conflict alarmed Tehran, which sent out mixed signals and found its offer of mediation ignored. Senior clerics voiced sympathy for Azerbaijan's cause, but this did not translate into substantive foreign policy change. Impacts After Syria, Azerbaijan becomes a second zone of Iranian rivalry with Turkey and alignment with Russia. Tehran will remain alert to signs of domestic unrest and spillover effects from the conflict zone. There is little likelihood of substantial shifts in Iran's bilateral ties with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Territorial changes make a longer-term restoration of Armenian-Turkish ties theoretically possible; this would benefit regional trade.

Countering extremism drives Egypt's foreign policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Civil War ◽  
Active Role ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Direct Involvement ◽  
Syrian Civil War ◽  
At Home

Significance In the midst of economic and security problems at home and accelerating instability in the region, President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has looked outwards to seek help. Partnerships with the Gulf have aided a reeling Egyptian economy while active relations with Russia have provided military benefits. Yesterday it was announced that Russia will supply Egypt with 46 new Ka-52K Alligator Helicopters for Egypt's two new French Mistral warships. Impacts Any differences with the Gulf on Syria will not be acute enough to damage relations. Besides, Egypt's direct involvement and impact on the Syrian civil war are negligible. However, Egypt will continue taking a more active role in Libya. Relations with the United States will be sustained given the decades-old strategic partnership that is still important to both sides.

Trump would face stronger headwinds in second term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Democrats And Republicans ◽  
Open Question ◽  
At Home

Significance In some ways Trump has been a traditional Republican president, lowering taxes and pushing deregulation. Yet he has taken trade and foreign policy in a new direction, with mixed results. How his priorities might change in a second term, as well as his ability to pursue them, is an open question. Impacts Trump’s relations with the Democrats would be frosty, limiting space for negotiation and compromise. The Democrats and Republicans would struggle to agree a wide-ranging infrastructure development package. Trump will continue to be averse to multilateralism abroad and heavy regulation at home.

Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Us Foreign Policy ◽  
First Year ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
At Home

Subject Prospects for US foreign policy in 2022. Significance After a first year in office dominated by the situation at home, the Biden administration aims to deliver a more developed and focused foreign policy agenda in 2022. Many foreign policy goals will remain largely unchanged. While there will be greater efforts to strengthen ties with allies through mechanisms such as the Quad, the emphasis on issues other than those involving China may be increasingly affected by domestic politics.

COVID-19 to end Cuban economic reform

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Health System ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Medical Missions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
At Home

Subject Cuban COVID-19 response. Significance As Cuba sends hundreds of health workers abroad to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, infection numbers are rising at home. ‘Medical internationalism’ is the humanitarian flagship of Cuba’s foreign policy, but the country’s health system faces an uphill battle against the spread of the virus. Cuba's economic crisis is worsening and a return to an emergency economy looms large. Impacts Cuba’s foreign medical missions will expand further, with the WHO likely to seek assistance in Africa, as it did during the Ebola crisis. Reduced tourism has seen 16,000 would-be entrepreneurs in Cuba’s emergent private sector turn in their licences -- more will follow. The state’s capacity to confine the infected and mobilise workers may help it respond to the crisis, but resource shortages pose problems.

Iran on course for final nuclear agreement with West

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Technical Details ◽  
Final Agreement ◽  
At Home

Subject Iran framework nuclear deal. Significance After 18 months of marathon negotiations, Iran and six world powers (the permanent five UN Security Council members plus Germany) have agreed on the parameters of a deal that limits Iran's nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) announced on April 2 establishes a surprisingly comprehensive political framework for the final deal. In the coming weeks, Tehran and Washington will work to sell the deal at home before returning to the negotiating table to iron out the technical details of a final agreement, due to be completed by June 30. Impacts Iran is unlikely to see tangible economic and investment benefits from sanctions relief until 2016. Limited economic improvements could damage prospects for Rouhani, and for moderates and reformists in the 2016 parliamentary elections. The agreement will not alter Iran's regional alliances or foreign policy interests. Tehran has no intention of pursuing a full-scale rapprochement with Washington.

In Macron’s France, the personal will be political

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Career Trajectory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Absolute Majority ◽  
Policy Style ◽  
Private Individual ◽  
The Way ◽  
At Home

Subject Macron's government. Significance Where once President Emmanuel Macron was a simply a private individual -- albeit one with an exceptional career trajectory -- on May 7, he became the newly elected president and on June 18, the leader of a recently rebranded party, Republic On The Move (LRM), that won an absolute majority in the second round of the legislative elections. Along the way, he has expanded into a noun, 'la Macronisation' and even a verb, 'macroniser', both of which refer to a style of leadership that augurs something new for France. Impacts Macron’s use of presidential symbols and his foreign policy style, while important, will only work if he is strong at home. Macron is attuned to a shift within the electorate, which is no longer so willing to tolerate politicians’ corruption. To win voters’ and unions’ support for his labour reforms, Macron’s government must gain and keep their trust.

Kuwait’s next crown prince may herald policy change

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status ◽  
Crown Prince ◽  
The Military

Significance As emir and before that as foreign minister, Sabah was the key architect of the moderate foreign policy that characterises Kuwait today. The new ruler, Nawaf, was formerly deputy commander of the military. He is a broadly uncontroversial figure associated with the status quo, but who recently sought to reach out to the opposition. Impacts A new legislature by December will focus on condemning corruption and protecting Kuwaitis’ economic benefits. Normalisation of ties with Israel remains unlikely. Demographic and health issues under COVID-19 will be key immediate challenges.

Erdogan may emerge from pandemic even stronger

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Crime Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Western European ◽  
At Home

Significance Official figures give Turkey a case fatality rate of 2.7% or 49 deaths per million, well below Western European figures and by no means the catastrophe predicted by outside observers. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is leaving his health minister to handle the crisis. He himself is showing no sign of changing course on foreign policy, although at home he is intensifying attacks on the opposition well ahead of elections due in 2023. Impacts The prospects for a currency shock are strong. Plans to reopen Turkey for tourism will not save the sector this season. With 100,000 convicts released from prison, the crime rate will rise.

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