Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the second quarter. Significance With average oil prices in 2015 likely to be 30-40% lower than in 2014, most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will see a huge change in their financial performance. Oil exporters could face major falls in fiscal revenue and foreign exchange earnings, while oil importers will receive a welcome boost to their budgetary and external accounts. On the security front, regional governments will focus on the threat from an expanding Islamic State group (ISG), and the fallout from a possible nuclear deal between the P5+1 world powers and Iran.

Subject Prospects for the Middle East in the third quarter. Significance International negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme are set to culminate in an agreement early in the quarter, reshaping the regional geopolitical map. Meanwhile the new leadership in Saudi Arabia will be tested on multiple fronts, including Yemen, the expanding influence of Islamic State group (ISG), and adjusting its economic policies to a new era of lower oil prices. Libya is looking for agreement on a national unity government.


Subject Jihadist groups' territorial strategies. Significance Islamic State group (ISG) is just one of a number of jihadist entities using the security vacuum in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond to seek territorial control and establish government according to a purist understanding of Islam. Other groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Boko Haram are seeking similar goals in Syria, Yemen and Nigeria, respectively. Impacts The risk of ethnic and sectarian cleansing will increase. International efforts to strengthen central governments and their militaries will rise. Loss of territory in Iraq and Syria will reduce ISG's appeal to foreign fighters. Resource constraints mean public service provision in jihadist-run areas will be poor.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abobakr Aljuwaiber

Purpose This paper aims to offer a wider examination of the research concerning entrepreneurship characteristics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region via a review of recent studies relevant to this topic. Research publications concerning entrepreneurship within the MENA region evidence growing interest in this field of study, with the potential to boost and drive future economic development and growth. This focus within entrepreneurship research is because of the economic development in the region, which is becoming increasingly important for policymakers and businesses. Design/methodology/approach The author performed a systematic literature review to produce robust information about entrepreneurship in the MENA region, followed by a thematic analysis to identify key research themes within each category. Findings Despite the growth in entrepreneurship research in the MENA region, research on certain factors is lacking. An analysis of 271 studies published between 2009 and 2019 identifies 9 main research categories, within which 30 themes have attracted significant academic attention. Female entrepreneurship and gender, youth entrepreneurship and entrepreneurship behaviour and orientation are the three key categories influencing perspectives on entrepreneurship in the MENA region. This study highlights research gaps and provides recommendations to guide future research on the sustainable development of entrepreneurship in the MENA region. Originality/value This paper highlights trends in entrepreneurship research amongst scholars within the MENA region and suggests paths for future research efforts.


Subject Effect of Libya on North Africa Significance The inability to produce a peace agreement in Libya and the prospect of a foreign intervention to counter the spread of Islamic State group (ISG) in the country raises questions on the impact this could have on Libya's North African neighbours. Impacts Military pressure on ISG in Libya will motivate the group to strike targets abroad to demonstrate its capabilities. ISG could use more sophisticated weapons against potential Western airstrikes and military operations. Insecurity in Libya will force its neighbours to maintain high levels of military spending at a time of lower government revenues. An influx of refugees into Tunisian and Algerian border areas could strain local resources.


Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.


Subject Iran's role in Yemen. Significance Yemeni and US officials have long claimed that Iran backs the northern Huthi movement, which follows the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam. Yemeni President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his Gulf allies fear that Iran is helping the group to overthrow Hadi's government as part of an attempt to establish an arc of Iranian interference in the Arab Middle East, from Lebanon and Syria to the Gulf. However, the Huthis deny any such ties with Tehran, and, until now, Yemen has remained low down on Tehran's regional agenda. Impacts Iran will use the Saudi intervention as an opportunity to build its networks inside Yemen in order to gain more leverage in the Gulf. More tangible Iranian interference in Yemen is likely to stoke further sectarian tensions in the region. Rising sectarianism within Yemen would enable al-Qaida and Islamic State group to gain greater traction in the country. Iran will refrain from military intervention so long as the nuclear negotiations continue. Tehran will lobby diplomatically to boost Shia rights and Huthi representation in any future government.


Significance Under the deal, the UN arms embargo will remain in force for five years, while the ban on ballistic missile sales will stay for eight years. This means that Russia's plans to supply Iran with the advanced S-300 missile system will face further delays. However, Moscow is not only focusing on arms sales to Iran, but is looking more widely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The Kremlin will become increasingly dependent on high-value, high-technology military sales while oil prices stay low and Western sanctions remain. Impacts Russia has rebounded to become the second largest arms seller in the Middle East behind the United States. The durability of Russian equipment and its comparable cheapness to US systems will be key attractions for buyers. Russia has become the main global supplier of the anti-access, area-denial weapons. Iran will refrain from progressing controversial Russian weapons sales that could damage its detente with the West.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 646-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nizar Mohammad Alsharari

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to gain insight into how well past reforms have performed against revenue, equity and efficiency benchmarks of tax policymaking, so that the direction of future reform of tax system might be determined. It also presents a comparative analysis of taxation and revenue trends in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the data set period 1990-2012. Design/methodology/approach By overviewing the development and relative significance of resource revenues, allocating non-resource taxes and examining the tax policies of constituent countries, this paper presents a comparative review of taxation and revenue trends in the MENA region. Findings Findings showed, on average, a slight decline in non-resource revenues against the significant rise in income from resources. The analysis of government revenues and current taxation structures provide insight into how prior reforms have performed against the standard measures of tax policy-making (i.e. revenue, equity and efficiency) and directions for change leading to the establishment of simple tax systems. The study observes regional differences, such as the higher tax and revenues of the Maghreb sub-region over the Mashreq, except for value-added tax, where low rates were associated with equal or greater revenue. Similarities were also found, including the partial compensation by income taxes (not indirect taxes) for revenue lost through trade liberalization. The challenges of tax reform are found to vary across countries and opportunities for improving equity and reducing the complexity of tax systems across the region are identified. Research limitations/implications Reforms in all tax systems could have major implications for the country, employment, earnings and tax revenues; but recommendations would require political value judgments and government decisions. The study suggests eliminating the current tax system, thereby replacing one of the more distortionary taxes in the current system with a neutral and efficient tax. Originality/value The paper signals the need, even of the oil-rich states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, for governments to build tax systems capable of capturing and spending revenues effectively into the future.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Allam Ahmed ◽  
Omer Gibreel

PurposeThis article explores the current trends in civic engagement in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region after a decade of social media growth in the region.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is based on a case studies approach. In these case studies, the authors use an exploratory approach to case study research. The authors employ a mixed-method approach to exploring the development of civic engagement in the MENA region.FindingsThe study’s finding shows that the MENA region's social media growth has enabled digital natives to play a vital role in enriching and empowering their communities and their lives.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper could have explored more examples from around the MENA region.Practical implicationsThe paper's practical significance is the understanding that the ground is shifting around Internet access and how digital natives in the MENA region are employing it for their civic engagement initiative. It is an important indication that the MENA region's next innovation could be in the civic engagement arena. Unlike their parents, who are digital immigrants, these young and energetic digital natives are out to shape all aspects of their lives. Paving the way for more innovative and creative ways of civic engagement in the MENA region.Originality/valueThe paper explores civic engagement development in the MENA region, shedding light on the issues concerning MENA region youth such as cleaning the environment, waste and food recycling, combating extremism, developing education curricula and even promoting peace. The paper's value is that it gives an update on civic engagement in the MENA region.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carole Serhan ◽  
Wissam Salloum ◽  
Nader Abdo

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of reward systems on team performance and analyze how satisfaction with rewards can result in better working performance and cohesiveness in the job environment. Design/methodology/approach Data was collected from 32 single members of different teams working in 10 selected banks from the Middle East and North Africa region. Findings The analysis from empirical findings reveals that there is a positive link between reward systems and team performance. More particularly, profit sharing has positive effects on team performance and collective bargaining reward systems affect significantly team cohesiveness. These links create an opportunity for employers to use reward systems as a motivating factor to direct team behavior toward more employee retention. Originality/value This study contributes to the teamwork performance research stream by empirically studying how rewards improve team performance and cohesiveness in Eastern contexts. Studies in such contexts are relatively rare.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document