The Emperor Strikes Back: Political Status, Career Incentives and Grain Procurement during China's Great Leap Famine

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Kai-sing Kung
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Great Leap ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Career Incentives

Using China's Great Leap Famine as example, this article shows how political career incentives can produce disastrous outcomes under the well-intended policies of a dictator. By exploiting a regression discontinuity design, the study identifies the causal effect of membership status in the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee—full (FM) Versus alternate members (AM)—on grain procurement. It finds that the difference in grain procurement between AMs and FMs who ranked near the discontinuity threshold is three times that between all AMs and all FMs on average. This may explain why Mao exceptionally promoted some lower-ranked but radical FMs shortly before the Leap: to create a demonstration effect in order to spur other weakly motivated FMs into action.

scholarly journals Evaluating Econometric Evaluations of Post-Secondary Aid

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (5) ◽  
pp. 502-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josh Angrist ◽  
David Autor ◽  
Sally Hudson ◽  
Amanda Pallais
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Random Assignment ◽  
Post Secondary ◽  
Design Selection ◽  
Ongoing Evaluation

In an ongoing evaluation of post-secondary financial aid, we use random assignment to assess the causal effects of large privately-funded aid awards. Here, we compare the unbiased causal effect estimates from our RCT with two types of non-experimental econometric estimates. The first applies a selection-on-observables assumption in data from an earlier, nonrandomized cohort; the second uses a regression discontinuity design. Selection-on-observables methods generate estimates well below the experimental benchmark. Regression discontinuity estimates are similar to experimental estimates for students near the cutoff, but sensitive to controlling for the running variable, which is unusually coarse.

scholarly journals Long-Term Contextual Effects in Education: Schools and Neighborhoods

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 336-377
Author(s):  
Jean-William Laliberté
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Contextual Effects ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Long Term Impact

This paper estimates the long-term impact of growing up in better neighborhoods and attending better schools on educational attainment. First, I use a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate the causal effect of growing up in a better area (total exposure effects). I find large effects for both dimensions. Combining both research designs in a decomposition framework, and under key assumptions, I estimate that 50–70 percent of the benefits of moving to a better area on educational attainment are due to access to better schools. (JEL H75, I21, R23)

Assessing Correspondence Between Experimental and Nonexperimental Estimates in Within-Study Comparisons

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Steiner ◽  
Vivian C. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Control Trial ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Equivalence Testing ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Practical Advice ◽  
Randomized Control ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Straightforward Approach

In within-study comparison (WSC) designs, treatment effects from a nonexperimental design, such as an observational study or a regression-discontinuity design, are compared to results obtained from a well-designed randomized control trial with the same target population. The goal of the WSC is to assess whether nonexperimental and experimental designs yield the same results in field settings. A common analytic challenge with WSCs, however, is the choice of appropriate criteria for determining whether nonexperimental and experimental results replicate. This article examines different distance-based correspondence measures for assessing correspondence in experimental and nonexperimental estimates. Distance-based measures investigate whether the difference in estimates is small enough to claim equivalence of methods. We use a simulation study to examine the statistical properties of common correspondence measures and recommend a new and straightforward approach that combines traditional significance testing and equivalence testing in the same framework. The article concludes with practical advice on assessing and interpreting results in WSC contexts.

scholarly journals The Effect of League Design on Spectator Attendance: A Regression Discontinuity Design Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 152700252198939
Author(s):  
Barry Reilly ◽  
Robert Witt
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Institutional Arrangement ◽  
Design Approach ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Spectator Attendance

This paper exploits a sharp regression discontinuity design to identify the causal impact of the Scottish Premiership League (SPL) “split” on spectator match attendance. We use data drawn from all 19 completed seasons for which this institutional arrangement has been in place. The causal effect of the “split” is to induce, for the last five rounds of games played in the season, a differential in average attendance of about 24% between the clubs that just qualify for the “Championship Play-off” section and those that do not. However, the annualized effect for the season is found to be modest.

Research Insights: Does Merit Pay among Public School Teachers Affect the Mobility of Teachers Out of Teaching or within the School System?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Berlinski ◽  
Alejandra Ramos
Keyword(s):  
School System ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Merit Pay ◽  
Teacher Mobility ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Public School Teachers ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Signal

This paper analyzes the effect on teacher mobility of a program that rewards excellence in teaching practices in Chile. Successful applicants receive a 6 percent annual wage increase for up to 10 years and an award that publicly recognizes their excellence. The paper uses a regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of the public merit award. The program does not alter transitions out of teaching. The program does, however, increase the mobility of awardees within the school system. This is consistent with the program providing a credible public signal of teacher quality.

scholarly journals Political Dynasties and the Incumbency Advantage in Party-Centered Environments

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 706-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
JON H. FIVA ◽  
DANIEL M. SMITH
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Organizational Networks ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Level Data

A handful of recent studies have investigated the causal effect of incumbency on dynasty formation in candidate-centered electoral contexts. We use candidate-level data and a regression discontinuity design to estimate the incumbency advantage and its relation to dynasty formation in the party-centered, closed-list, proportional-representation setting of Norway. The results indicate that the incumbency advantage exists even in this party-centered environment; however, in contrast to recent findings for the United States and the Philippines, we find no evidence that incumbency is important to the formation of dynasties. This finding underscores the need for more research into the role of internal party organizational networks in the perpetuation of political dynasties.

Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Butler ◽  
Matthew J. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

We provide an introduction to the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and use the technique to evaluate models of sequential Senate elections predicting that the winning party for one Senate seat will receive fewer votes in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946 to 2004, we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqiong Liu ◽  
Liang Yu ◽  
Cunyi Yang ◽  
Zhenghui Li
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
The Face ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

In the context of intensifying global geopolitical disputes and trade frictions, the relationship between geopolitics and energy trade has attracted extensive attention from scholars. The complexity of geopolitical risks mainly comes from the diversity of geopolitical events, which directly leads to the different responses of energy trade in the face of geopolitical risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade based on the difference of event types. This paper uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to simulate a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the monthly data and the Geopolitical Risk index (GPR index) of 17 emerging economies from 2000 to 2020, the empirical analysis can be concluded as follows: Wars and conflicts events lead to the increase of energy trade volume; terrorist attacks have no significant impact on energy trade; international tension can cause the decline in energy trade. Additional analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade in emerging economies is concentrated on the demand side, and the demand is severely inelastic.

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