Population Externalities and Optimal Social Policy

If fertility is not chosen in a socially optimal way, and if policies to directly target fertility are ineffective or politically infeasible, then public policies that affect fertility could have important welfare consequences through the fertility channel. We refer to these effects as population externalities, and in this paper we focus on one important variable that may have a causal impact on fertility: the education of potential parents. If increased education causes families to have fewer children, then a government would want to increase college tuition subsidies in the presence of environmental externalities such as climate change, to indirectly discourage families from having children who will generate future environmental costs. Alternatively, if fertility is inefficiently low, due to imperfect parental altruism for example, governments will want to lower tuition subsidies to encourage child-bearing. We present a simple model of the college enrollment decision and its fertility impacts, and show that such population externalities are quantitatively important: the optimal subsidy increases by about $5000 per year with climate change, and decreases by over $7000 per year with imperfect parental altruism. Our paper demonstrates how public economics can incorporate population externalities, and that such externalities can have significant impacts on optimal policy.

Analysing the donor behaviour of a Muslim diaspora in Australia

Diaspora communities are an important source of charitable giving to their original homelands. This study explores a Muslim diaspora's motivations behind donation-giving. A two-year donation dataset of an overseas charity organisation registered in Australia was analysed. Findings show that, overall, donations are significantly related to the prevailing consumer confidence levels (r = 0.4277). However, there was also a strong, inverse correlation (r = - 0.4376) during 2020, suggesting that the plummeting consumer sentiment during COVID-19 did not impact donation revenue. As expected, during periods of religious significance (Ramadan) across both years, donations to the charity increased substantially, with the relative effect of Ramadan calculated as over 800%. This study makes a contribution by providing insights to donor behaviour through the examination of a donation dataset. This study also uses ‘causal impact analysis’ to calculate the effect of Ramadan on donations. Results have implications for the not-for-profit sector in Australia and other countries with Muslim diaspora communities. Limitations and suggestions for future research are also discussed.

The effect of inflation on economic growth in Ghana, 1995-2019: Post democratic analysis

Background: One of the fundamental goals of macroeconomic policy in many nations, both developed and developing, is to foster economic development while keeping inflation low. There has been a debate as to whether inflation impacts negatively on economic growth or rather promotes economic growth. The study is motivated by this controversy and used time-series data from 1995 to 2019 in Ghana to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth, establish the long-run effect and also test whether there exists a causal effect between inflation and economic growth. Method: The review utilized Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression examination to inspect the impact of inflation on economic growth and while long run co-integration relationship was additionally decide utilizing Fully Modified (FM-OLS) regression analysis. Granger causality was investigated to see if there is a causal impact among inflation and economic growth. Model diagnoses were performed to discover the strength of the discoveries where autocorrelation, multicollinearity, normality test and heteroscedasticity were tested. Results: The review uncovered that, inflation has a negative measurably irrelevant impact on economic growth at 5% basic level. The concentrate likewise uncovered that there was co-integration relationship between inflation and economic growth during the time of viable 1995-2019. There was no causal impact among inflation and economic growth, in this way neither inflation nor economic growth Granger-Causes the other. The study suggest that inflation targeting ought to be the best financial approach measure for economic growth by keeping up with the rate at 8+/-2%.

The Glowing Screen Before Me and the Moral Law Within me: A Kantian Duty Against Screen Overexposure

This paper establishes a Kantian duty against screen overexposure. After defining screen exposure, I adopt a Kantian approach to its morality on the ground that Kant’s notion of duties to oneself easily captures wrongdoing in absence of harm or wrong to others. Then, I draw specifically on Kant’s ‘duties to oneself as an animal being’ to introduce a duty of self-government. This duty is based on the negative causal impact of the activities it regulates on a human being’s mental and physical powers, and, ultimately, on the moral employment of these powers. After doing so, I argue that the duty against screen overexposure is an instance of the duty of self-government. Finally, I consider some objections.

The Causal Impact of the Rapid Czech Interest Rate Hike on the Czech Exchange Rate Assessed by the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model

I have employed the Bayesian Structural Time Series model to assess the recent interest rate hike by the Czech Central Bank and its causal impact on the Koruna exchange rate. By forecasting exchange rate time series in the absence of the intervention we can subtract the observed values from the prediction and estimate the causal effect. The results show that the impact was little and time limited in one model specification and none in the second version. It implies that the Czech Central Bank possesses the ability to diverge significantly from the Eurozone benchmark interest rate at least in the short term. It also shows that the interest rate hike will not be able to curb global inflation forces on the domestic price level.

The Impact of Short-Term Employment for Low-Income Youth: Experimental Evidence from the Philippines

We use a randomized field experiment to test the causal impact of short-term work experience on employment and school enrollment among disadvantaged, in-school youth in the Philippines. This experience leads to a 4.4 percentage point (79-percent) increase in employment 8 to 12 months later. While we find noaggregate increase in enrollment, we also do not find that the employment gains push youth out of school. Our results are most consistent with work experience serving as a signal of unobservable applicant quality, and these findings highlight the role of temporary work as a stepping-stone to employment for low-income youth.

Education and Political Participation

Whether education affects political participation is a long-standing and central question in political philosophy and political science. In this review, we provide an overview of the three main theoretical models that explain different causal pathways. We then synthesize the surge in research using causal inference strategies and show that this literature has generated mixed results about the causal impact of education, even when using similar methods and data. These findings do not provide clear support for any of the three theories. Our next section covers research on civic education and political participation. The quantity of civic education matters little for political participation, but how civic education is taught does matter. Namely, strategies falling under the rubric of active learning show promise. These strategies seem especially effective for historically marginalized students. Our final section calls for more research on how civic education is taught. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Evaluating the policy of closing bars and restaurants in Cataluña and its effects on mobility and COVID19 incidence

ABSTRACTThe world has gone through unprecedented changes since the global pandemic hit. During the early phase of the pandemic, the absence of known drugs or pharmaceutical treatments forced governments to introduce different policies in order to help reduce contagion rates and manage the economic consequences of the pandemic. This paper analyses the causal impact on mobility and COVID19 incidence from policy makers in Cataluña, Spain. We use annonimized phone-based mobility data together with reported incidence and apply a series of causal impact models frequently used in econometrics and policy evaluation in order to measure the policies impact.. We analyse the case of Cataluña and the public policy decision of closing all bars and restaurants down for a 5 week period between the 2020-16-10 to 2020-23-11. We find that this decision led to a significant reduction in mobility. It not only led to reductions in mobility but from a behavioural economics standpoint we highlight how people responded to the policy decision. Moreover, the policy of closing bars and restaurants slowed the incidence rate of COVID19 after a time lag has been taken into account. These finding are significant since governments worldwide want to restrict movements of people in order to slow down COVID19 incidence without infringing on their rights directly.

The causal impact of objective numeracy on judgments: Improving numeracy via symbolic and non-symbolic approximate arithmetic training yields more consistent risk judgments

Park and Brannon (2013, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797613482944) found that practicing non-symbolic approximate arithmetic increased performance on an objective numeracy task, specifically symbolic arithmetic. Manipulating objective numeracy would be useful for many researchers, particularly those who wish to investigate causal effects of objective numeracy on performance. Objective numeracy has been linked to performance in multiple areas, such as judgment-and-decision-making (JDM) competence, but most existing studies are correlational. Here, we expanded upon Park and Brannon’s method to experimentally manipulate objective numeracy and we investigated whether numeracy’s link with JDM performance was causal. Experimental participants drawn from a diverse internet sample trained on approximate-arithmetic tasks whereas active control participants trained on a spatial working-memory task. Numeracy training followed a 2 × 2 design: Experimental participants quickly estimated the sum of OR difference between presented numeric stimuli, using symbolic numbers (i.e., Arabic numbers) OR non-symbolic numeric stimuli (i.e., dot arrays). We partially replicated Park and Brannon’s findings: The numeracy training improved objective-numeracy performance more than control training, but this improvement was evidenced by performance on the Objective Numeracy Scale, not the symbolic arithmetic task. Subsequently, we found that experimental participants also perceived risks more consistently than active control participants, and this risk-consistency benefit was mediated by objective numeracy. These results provide the first known experimental evidence of a causal link between objective numeracy and the consistency of risk judgments.