Splitting the Difference? Causal Inference and Theories of Split-party Delegations

2006 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 439-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M. Butler ◽  
Matthew J. Butler
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Senate Elections ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

We provide an introduction to the regression discontinuity design (RDD) and use the technique to evaluate models of sequential Senate elections predicting that the winning party for one Senate seat will receive fewer votes in the next election for the other seat. Using data on U.S. Senate elections from 1946 to 2004, we find strong evidence that the outcomes of the elections for the two Senate seats are independent.

The Emperor Strikes Back: Political Status, Career Incentives and Grain Procurement during China's Great Leap Famine

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Kai-sing Kung
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Central Committee ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Political Career ◽  
Demonstration Effect ◽  
Political Status ◽  
Great Leap ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Career Incentives

Using China's Great Leap Famine as example, this article shows how political career incentives can produce disastrous outcomes under the well-intended policies of a dictator. By exploiting a regression discontinuity design, the study identifies the causal effect of membership status in the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee—full (FM) Versus alternate members (AM)—on grain procurement. It finds that the difference in grain procurement between AMs and FMs who ranked near the discontinuity threshold is three times that between all AMs and all FMs on average. This may explain why Mao exceptionally promoted some lower-ranked but radical FMs shortly before the Leap: to create a demonstration effect in order to spur other weakly motivated FMs into action.

scholarly journals The Effect of Electing Women on Future Female Candidate Selection Patterns: Findings from a Regression Discontinuity Design

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jankowski ◽  
Kamil Marcinkiewicz ◽  
Anna Gwiazda
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Contagion Effect ◽  
Representation System ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Female Candidate

AbstractIn this article, we address the question of how electing women to national or subnational parliaments affects future female candidate selection in an open-list proportional representation system, using the example of Poland. We consider three potential effects of electing a woman. First, based on existing theories of the incumbency advantage, elected women should have higher chances of reselection and reelection in future elections (incumbency effect). Second, as a result of becoming more powerful within their party, elected women might have a stronger influence on future list composition, and thus more women should run for office on these lists (empowerment effect). Finally, we argue that other parties might adjust their candidate selection patterns in response to the election of women on other party lists (contagion effect). We find strong evidence for the incumbency effect and some support for the contagion effect. The empowerment hypothesis, however, finds no empirical support.

Assessing Correspondence Between Experimental and Nonexperimental Estimates in Within-Study Comparisons

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter M. Steiner ◽  
Vivian C. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Randomized Control Trial ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Significance Testing ◽  
Equivalence Testing ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Practical Advice ◽  
Randomized Control ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Straightforward Approach

In within-study comparison (WSC) designs, treatment effects from a nonexperimental design, such as an observational study or a regression-discontinuity design, are compared to results obtained from a well-designed randomized control trial with the same target population. The goal of the WSC is to assess whether nonexperimental and experimental designs yield the same results in field settings. A common analytic challenge with WSCs, however, is the choice of appropriate criteria for determining whether nonexperimental and experimental results replicate. This article examines different distance-based correspondence measures for assessing correspondence in experimental and nonexperimental estimates. Distance-based measures investigate whether the difference in estimates is small enough to claim equivalence of methods. We use a simulation study to examine the statistical properties of common correspondence measures and recommend a new and straightforward approach that combines traditional significance testing and equivalence testing in the same framework. The article concludes with practical advice on assessing and interpreting results in WSC contexts.

scholarly journals distcomp: Comparing distributions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 832-848 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Data ◽  
Causal Inference ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Finite Samples ◽  
Comparing Distributions

In this article, I introduce the distcomp command, which assesses whether two distributions differ at each possible value while controlling the probability of any false positive, even in finite samples. I discuss syntax and the underlying methodology (from Goldman and Kaplan [2018, Journal of Econometrics 206: 143–166]). Multiple examples illustrate the distcomp command, including revisiting the experimental data of Gneezy and List (2006, Econometrica 74: 1365–1384) and the regression discontinuity design of Cattaneo, Frandsen, and Titiunik (2015, Journal of Causal Inference 3: 1–24).

An empirical study on the contribution of formal and semantic features to the grammatical gender of nouns

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Basirat ◽  
Marc Allassonnière-Tang ◽  
Aleksandrs Berdicevskis
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Grammatical Gender ◽  
The Other ◽  
Semantic Features ◽  
Gender Identification ◽  
Gender Assignment ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Formal Features

Abstract This study conducts an experimental evaluation of two hypotheses about the contributions of formal and semantic features to the grammatical gender assignment of nouns. One of the hypotheses (Corbett and Fraser 2000) claims that semantic features dominate formal ones. The other hypothesis, formulated within the optimal gender assignment theory (Rice 2006), states that form and semantics contribute equally. Both hypotheses claim that the combination of formal and semantic features yields the most accurate gender identification. In this paper, we operationalize and test these hypotheses by trying to predict grammatical gender using only character-based embeddings (that capture only formal features), only context-based embeddings (that capture only semantic features) and the combination of both. We performed the experiment using data from three languages with different gender systems (French, German and Russian). Formal features are a significantly better predictor of gender than semantic ones, and the difference in prediction accuracy is very large. Overall, formal features are also significantly better than the combination of form and semantics, but the difference is very small and the results for this comparison are not entirely consistent across languages.

Business Microloans for U.S. Subprime Borrowers

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesare Fracassi ◽  
Mark J. Garmaise ◽  
Shimon Kogan ◽  
Gabriel Natividad
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Business Owners ◽  
Large Impact ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Automated Algorithm ◽  
Firm Success ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Managerial Experience

AbstractWe show that business microloans to U.S. subprime borrowers have a very large impact on subsequent firm success. Using data on startup loan applicants from a lender that employed an automated algorithm in its application review, we implement a regression discontinuity design assessing the causal impact of receiving a loan on firms. Startups receiving funding are dramatically more likely to survive, enjoy higher revenues, and create more jobs. Loans are more consequential for survival among subprime business owners with more education and less managerial experience.

scholarly journals Heterogeneity of the Impact of Geopolitical Events on Energy Trade: An Empirical Study Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanqiong Liu ◽  
Liang Yu ◽  
Cunyi Yang ◽  
Zhenghui Li
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Energy Trade ◽  
The Face ◽  
Trade Frictions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

In the context of intensifying global geopolitical disputes and trade frictions, the relationship between geopolitics and energy trade has attracted extensive attention from scholars. The complexity of geopolitical risks mainly comes from the diversity of geopolitical events, which directly leads to the different responses of energy trade in the face of geopolitical risks. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade based on the difference of event types. This paper uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to simulate a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the monthly data and the Geopolitical Risk index (GPR index) of 17 emerging economies from 2000 to 2020, the empirical analysis can be concluded as follows: Wars and conflicts events lead to the increase of energy trade volume; terrorist attacks have no significant impact on energy trade; international tension can cause the decline in energy trade. Additional analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical events on energy trade in emerging economies is concentrated on the demand side, and the demand is severely inelastic.

Effects of Schooling on Reading Performance, Reading Engagement, and Reading Activities of 15-Year-Olds in England

2008 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans Luyten ◽  
Jules Peschar ◽  
Robert Coe
Keyword(s):  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Reading Performance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Reading Engagement ◽  
Disadvantaged Student ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Reading Activities ◽  
Effect Of Age ◽  
Modest Effect

This article reports the findings of an analysis into the effect of one year’s schooling for 15-year-olds in England on reading performance, reading engagement, and reading activities. The analyses were done on PISA 2000 data by applying a regression discontinuity approach within a multilevel framework. The effect of schooling is estimated as the difference between students from two consecutive grades minus the effect of age. A remarkably modest effect on reading performance was found, and no significant effects were found for the other two measures. The effect on reading performance was found to be somewhat stronger in schools with disadvantaged student populations.

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