Guest Editorial: How To Meet Declining Oil Demand

As the world reaches a tipping point in its will to address climate change, the industry must find a new way forward, especially in the United States. Many are right to say that oil and gas are not going away; the transition is planned to take 30 years or more and will not decline to zero production. This fact, though, obscures the reality that peaking, then declining, demand for oil—gas is another story—will structurally change and globally redistribute the industry’s exploration and employment. The story of oil supply and demand began its race to the top 150 years ago. “Shortage” and “glut” have meant that paired growth got out of sync, not that there was a real loss of production. For many decades the world has needed about 1 million B/D more each year than the previous year, but on a percentage basis growth has slowed. At the same time supply from previous years declines about 5 to 6% per year, arguably higher in recent years. The treadmill for new supply has been running hot for decades. All major public forecasts in the past year call for oil demand to plateau between now and about 2030 when accounting for ongoing changes to policy. (To be clear, some show a peak in the 2030s in “business as usual” cases, but they also show even sooner peaks if policy and demand changes accelerate). BP’s Energy Outlook 2020 from last fall took the bold—and well-argued—position that peak oil demand is today and that it is only a question of how fast demand declines. “Peak” demand isn’t really a peak like the Matterhorn; it is flatter like a weathered jebel. We know this from the example of the peak oil demand experienced by the developed world. We also know from that experience that forecasting agencies failed to predict the peak OECD oil demand in 2005 literally by decades even as demand turned down. Reversal of demand growth presents a figurative and mathematical inflection point. Though existing production continues, growth becomes negative, and the pace of the new-supply treadmill plummets. When the need for new supply approximately halves, the Pareto principle tells us that the number of new projects required will fall more than half. Thus, the need for those industry professionals preferentially tasked with finding new oil supply—geophysicists, exploration geologists, drillers, reservoir engineers, landmen—may fall quickly. Other disciplines like operations that service existing production will face only the headwinds of cost reductions and then the long, slow slide toward mid-century targets. The United States via its swarm of large and small companies has dominated the global supply story for more than a decade with its unique shale revolution, but it had previously shriveled to a second-tier producer. Fig. 1 shows 55 years of oil production history. Fig. 1a shows the US supply deconstructed to its functional parts while Fig. 1b shows ascendent producers on the same scales.

Soy Protein Pressed Gels: Gelation Mechanism Affects the In Vitro Proteolysis and Bioaccessibility of Added Phenolic Acids

In this study, a model system of firm tofu (pressed gel) was prepared to study how the coagulation mechanism—acidification with glucono δ-lactone (GDL) or coagulation with magnesium sulphate (MgSO4)—affected the physical properties of the gels along with their in vitro proteolysis (or extent of proteolysis). The two types of gels were also fortified with 3.5 mM protocatechuic (PCA) and coumaric acid (CMA) to test whether they can be used as bioactive delivery systems. Texture analysis showed that all MgSO4-induced gels (fortified and control) had a higher hydration capacity and a weaker texture than the GDL-induced gels (p < 0.05). MgSO4 gels had almost double proteolysis percentages throughout the in vitro digestion and showed a significantly higher amino acid bioaccessibility than the GDL gels (essential amino acid bioaccessibility of 56% versus 31%; p < 0.05). Lastly, both gel matrices showed a similar phenolic acid release profile, on a percentage basis (~80% for PCA and ~100% for CMA). However, GDL gels delivered significantly higher masses of bioactives under simulated intestinal conditions because they could retain more of the bioactives in the gel after pressing. It was concluded that the coagulation mechanism affects both the macro- and microstructure of the soy protein pressed gels and as a result their protein digestibility. Both pressed gel matrices are promising delivery systems for bioactive phenolic acids.

Impact of splits on stock splits ratios around announcement day: empirical evidence from India

Stock split should not have any impact on share prices, and there should be no value creation. The purpose of this study is to find any impact of stock splits announced in India between 1999 and 2019 on stock returns. The study aims to find differences in the impact of stock splits on stock returns with differences in stock split ratios. To examine the impact, the study includes 224 splits and adopts the standard event study methodology to find results. The presence of an abnormal return around split announcement day is the main factor, which determines the impact of stock split on the stocks. Average Abnormal Returns and Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns on percentage basis, z-test and p-value are used to statistically analyze the impact on stock prices around the announcement day of splits. These tests are used across different window periods (e.g., 20 days, 10 days and 5 days) around the event day (announcement day) to check if the impact of the event continues or decreases over time. The results point to a significant positive impact of stock splits on the returns of stock around the day the split was announced. The results also show that the impact is stronger for stock splits with ratios 10:1 (2.72 percent) and 10:2 (2.14 percent). It can be suggested that 10:1 and 10:2 are the most popular split ratios that receive maximum ongoing response to splits in the announcement window.

Financial Impacts of Net-Metered Distributed PV on a Prototypical Western Utility’s Shareholders and Ratepayers

Distributed solar photovoltaic (DPV) under net-energy metering with volumetric retail electricity pricing has raised concerns among utilities and regulators about adverse financial impacts for shareholders and ratepayers. Using a pro forma financial model, we estimate the financial impacts of different DPV deployment levels on a prototypical Western U.S. investor-owned utility under a varied set of operating conditions that would be expected to affect the value of DPV. Our results show that the financial impacts on shareholders and ratepayers increase as the level of DPV deployment increases, though the magnitude is small even at high DPV penetration levels. Even rather dramatic changes in DPV value result in modest changes to shareholder and ratepayer impacts, but the impacts on the former are greater than the latter (in percentage terms). The range of financial impacts are driven by differences in the amount of incremental capital investment that is deferred, as well as the amount of incremental distribution operating expenses that are incurred. While many of the impacts appear relatively small (on a percentage basis), they demonstrate how the magnitude of impacts depend critically on utility physical, financial, and operating characteristics.

Female Continue to Face Challenges in Acquiring Higher Education in Pakistan

The present study aimed to investigate the challenges, which girls had to face to overcome the cultural obstructions in getting higher education. The study focused on a multitude of cultural barriers and challenges, financial problems, and academic issues that female had to face. Qualitative, as well as a quantitative research approach, was used to know about the experience of respondents which they experienced while getting admission in the university. Questioners were the essential tools to collect the data described by a percentage basis. The study was conducted in Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan (Punjab, Pakistan) because different rural areas surrounded it. The population of the present study consisted of the female students studying in BS (Hons) program and M.sc students of the university. The paper argues that financial constraints included the theme of the scarcity of resources allocated to girls. Due to poor economic conditions, parents preferred their son’s education as compared to the daughter’s school and suggested that due to limited resources, parents choose between daughter’s education and son’s education. “From these excerpts, it was also revealed that families did not invest in girl’s education due to their restricted productivity in generating income for the family. The results also show that various factors are responsible for the social exclusion of girls from the education sector of Pakistan. These factors include the conservative attitude of family and preference to boy’s education. The originality of this paper is that the conservative opinion of the family and community is the primary determinant of low enrollment rate of girls in higher education. In addition to this, the result of the research depicts that little parental education also results in a flat enrollment rate in Pakistan.

Analyses of Tribological Properties of Castor Oil With Various Carbonaceous Micro- and Nano-Friction Modifiers

The present work investigates the tribological properties of castor oil with various carbonaceous friction modifiers (nano and microsize additives) assessed using four-ball tester as per ASTM D 4172 and ASTM D 2783. Castor oil has been chosen because of its high viscosity and ease of availability. Graphite, multiwalled carbon nanotube (MWCNT), and multilayered graphene are used as friction modifiers (FMs) in castor oil on weight percentage basis. Significant enhancements of tribological properties with a certain level of concentration of friction modifiers have been observed. The surface features of the tested balls were analyzed using a three-dimensional noncontact type profilometer, scanning electron microscope (SEM), and energy dispersive system (EDS). Decrease in surface roughness indicated better antiwear properties in case of nanofriction modifiers-based castor oil as compared to micrographite-based and neat castor oil (NCO). In order to assess the suitability of castor oil as a replacement for mineral oil, the results of castor oil samples are also compared with commercially available mineral oil. The tribological properties of castor oil are found to be competitive and generally superior to the mineral gear oil. The data generated are used to develop a neural network model to map the input–output correlation.

Estimate of changes in agricultural terrestrial nitrogen pathways and ammonia emissions from 1850 to present in the Community Earth System Model

Nitrogen applied to the surface of the land for agricultural purposes represents a significant source of reactive nitrogen (Nr) that can be emitted as a gaseous Nr species, be denitrified to atmospheric nitrogen (N2), run off during rain events or form plant-useable nitrogen in the soil. To investigate the magnitude, temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of nitrogen pathways on a global scale from sources of animal manure and synthetic fertilizer, we developed a mechanistic parameterization of these pathways within a global terrestrial land model, the Community Land Model (CLM). In this first model version the parameterization emphasizes an explicit climate-dependent approach while using highly simplified representations of agricultural practices, including manure management and fertilizer application. The climate-dependent approach explicitly simulates the relationship between meteorological variables and biogeochemical processes to calculate the volatilization of ammonia (NH3), nitrification and runoff of Nr following manure or synthetic fertilizer application. For the year 2000, approximately 125 Tg N yr−1 is applied as manure and 62 Tg N yr−1 is applied as synthetic fertilizer. We estimate the resulting global NH3 emissions are 21 Tg N yr−1 from manure (17 % of manure production) and 12 Tg N yr−1 from fertilizer (19 % of fertilizer application); reactive nitrogen runoff during rain events is calculated as 11 Tg N yr−1 from manure and 5 Tg N yr−1 from fertilizer. The remaining nitrogen from manure (93 Tg N yr−1) and synthetic fertilizer (45 Tg N yr−1) is captured by the canopy or transferred to the soil nitrogen pools. The parameterization was implemented in the CLM from 1850 to 2000 using a transient simulation which predicted that, even though absolute values of all nitrogen pathways are increasing with increased manure and synthetic fertilizer application, partitioning of nitrogen to NH3 emissions from manure is increasing on a percentage basis, from 14 % of nitrogen applied in 1850 (3 Tg NH3 yr−1) to 17 % of nitrogen applied in 2000 (21 Tg NH3 yr−1). Under current manure and synthetic fertilizer application rates we find a global sensitivity of an additional 1 Tg NH3 (approximately 3 % of manure and fertilizer) emitted per year per °C of warming. While the model confirms earlier estimates of nitrogen fluxes made in a range of studies, its key purpose is to provide a theoretical framework that can be employed within a biogeochemical model, that can explicitly respond to climate and that can evolve and improve with further observation.

Estimate of changes in agricultural terrestrial nitrogen pathways and ammonia emissions from 1850 to present in the Community Earth System Model

Nitrogen applied to the surface of the land for agricultural purposes represents a significant source of reactive nitrogen (Nr) that can be emitted as a gaseous Nr species, be denitrified to atmospheric nitrogen (N2), run-off during rain events or form plant useable nitrogen in the soil. To investigate the magnitude, temporal variability and spatial heterogeneity of nitrogen pathways on a global scale from sources of animal manure and synthetic fertilizer, we developed a mechanistic parameterization of these pathways within a global terrestrial model. The parameterization uses a climate dependent approach whereby the relationships between meteorological variables and biogeochemical processes are used to calculate the volatilization of ammonia (NH3), nitrification and run-off of Nr following manure or fertilizer application. For the year 2000, we estimate global NH3 emission and Nr dissolved during rain events from manure at 21 and 11 Tg N yr−1, respectively; for synthetic fertilizer we estimate the NH3 emission and Nr run-off during rain events at 12 and 5 Tg N yr−1, respectively. The parameterization was implemented in the Community Land Model from 1850 to 2000 using a transient simulation which predicted that, even though absolute values of all nitrogen pathways are increasing with increased manure and synthetic fertilizer application, partitioning of nitrogen to NH3 emissions from manure is increasing on a percentage basis, from 14 % of nitrogen applied (3 Tg NH3 yr−1) in 1850 to 18 % of nitrogen applied in 2000 (22 Tg NH3 yr−1). While the model confirms earlier estimates of nitrogen fluxes made in a range of studies, its key purpose is to provide a theoretical framework that can be employed within a biogeochemical model, that can explicitly respond to climate and that can evolve and improve with further observation.

An Identification of Construction Project Overheads for Sustainable Cost Management and Controlling Practices (CMCPs)

Project overheads are allocated on a percentage basis to project costs and common to maintain multiple cost objects, but cannot directly be distributed to construction activities. Construction project overheads have to be identified their cost behaviours properly in order to sustain Cost Management and Controlling Practices (CMCPs) during the construction stage. The literature review method identified forty seven (47)project overheads and categorised into four hierarchies (unit, batch, project, and facility levels). Therefore, the identification of project overheads should enable a sustainable improvement to the CMCPs in construction projects.

Dalsze studia cyto-embriologiczne di-, tetra- i oktoploidaluych form Trifolium [Further cyto-embryological studies on di, tetra- and octoploid forms of Trifolium]

In the course of this study no significant differences in the length of pollen-tubes of ecological types collected from natural stations (<i>Trifolium pratense</i> L. var. spontaneum Willk., <i>T. hybridum</i> L. and <i>T. repens</i> L,) were found as compared with their polyploid forms obtained in the experimental way. Disorders in fertilization, decay of unfertilized embryo sacs, and degeneration of embroys were observed more frequently on a percentage basis in the polyploid forms. Embryo and endosperm development were similar in the initial species and in the experimentally obtained polyploids.