Quantifying Inaccuracies in Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic within a Continuous Time Picture

Typically, mathematical simulation studies on COVID-19 pandemic forecasting are based on deterministic differential equations which assume that both the number (n) of individuals in various epidemiological classes and the time (t) on which they depend are quantities that vary continuous. This picture contrasts with the discrete representation of n and t underlying the real epidemiological data reported in terms daily numbers of infection cases, for which a description based on finite difference equations would be more adequate. Adopting a logistic growth framework, in this paper we present a quantitative analysis of the errors introduced by the continuous time description. This analysis reveals that, although the height of the epidemiological curve maximum is essentially unaffected, the position Tc1/2 obtained within the continuous time representation is systematically shifted backwards in time with respect to the position Td1/2 predicted within the discrete time representation. Rather counterintuitively, the magnitude of this temporal shift τ ≡ Tc1/2 − Td1/2 < 0 is basically insensitive to changes in infection rate κ. For a broad range of κ values deduced from COVID-19 data at extreme situations (exponential growth in time and complete lockdown), we found a rather robust estimate τ ≈ -2.65 day-1. Being obtained without any particular assumption, the present mathematical results apply to logistic growth in general without any limitation to a specific real system.

Polarimetry of the superluminous transient ASASSN-15lh

ABSTRACT ASASSN-15lh is the intrinsically brightest transient observed to date. Despite being the subject of concerted photometric and spectroscopic observing campaigns, there is still significant debate about the true nature of this transient and the mechanism responsible for its great luminosity. Here we report five epochs of imaging polarimetry and two epochs of spectropolarimetry conducted with the ESO Very Large Telescope (VLT) FOcal Reducer and low dispersion Spectrograph (FORS) polarimeter, spanning +28–91 d (rest frame) with respect to the light-curve maximum. The overall level of polarization across this period is seen to be low ${\sim} 0.5\!-\!0.8 {{\ \rm per\ cent}}$, however at +51.6 d, approximately corresponding to a dip in the ultraviolet (UV) photometric light curve, the polarization is seen to briefly rise to $1.2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ in the observed V band. We discuss this behaviour in the context of previous polarimetric observations of superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) and tidal disruption events (TDEs). Although the level of polarization could be consistent with polarization observed for SLSNe, the behaviour around the UV light-curve dip could also be consistent with a TDE observed almost edge on.

ASSESSMENT INDICES FOR THE EFFICIENCY OF THE SEPARATION PROCESS ON A SIEVE WITH CONICAL SEPARATION SURFACE

The objective of this paper is to present the efficiency of the separation process on a sieve with a conical separation surface, with a vertical shaft and having vibrational motion. Separation intensity curves of rape seeds through circular sieve apertures were drawn by regression analysis of the quantities of material separated at different distances from the central axis of the sieve, using the Gaussian distribution law. The coefficients of the regression equation and the correlation coefficient of the distribution function with experimental data show a high degree of correlation between them. The movement of the material on the sieve and the separation process, in general, was assessed by the position of the distribution curve maximum, depending on the material flow rate.

Drug-drug Interactions Among Thai Transgender Women Living with Human Immunodeficiency Undergoing Feminizing Hormone Therapy and Antiretroviral Therapy: The iFACT Study

Background Drug-drug interactions between feminizing hormone therapy (FHT) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) are a major concern among transgender women (TGW), which may lead to suboptimal ART adherence and inappropriate FHT dosage. To evaluate potential drug-drug interactions between FHT and ART, we performed intensive measurements of the pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters of blood tenofovir (TFV), efavirenz (EFV), and estradiol (E2). Methods Twenty TGW with newly diagnosed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were enrolled. FHT (E2 valerate 2 mg/d and cyproterone acetate 25 mg/d) was prescribed at baseline until week 5 and restarted at week 8. ART (TFV disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/EFV at 300/200/600 mg) was initiated at week 3. The E2 PK parameters were measured intensively at weeks 3 (without ART) and 5 (with ART), and TFV and EFV PK parameters were measured intensively at weeks 5 (with FHT) and 8 (without FHT). Results The median (interquartile range) age and body mass index were 25.5 (22.5–31.0) years and 20.6 (19.3–23.1) kg/m2, respectively. The differences in geometric mean ratios between weeks 3 and 5 were as follows for E2 area under the curve, maximum concentration, and concentration at 24 hours (C24), respectively: 0.72 (90% confidence interval, .64–.81; P &lt; .001), 0.81 (.72–.92; P = .006), and 0.64 (.50–.83; P = .004). The differences in geometric mean ratios between weeks 5 and 8 were as follows for TFV AUC, TFV C24, and EFV C24: 0.86 (90% confidence interval, .80–.93; P = .002), 0.83 (.75–.93; P = .006), and 0.91 (.85–.97; P = .02). Conclusions Among HIV-positive TGW, E2 PK parameters were significantly lower in the presence of TFV disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine/EFV, and some TFV and EFV PK parameters were lower in the presence of FHT. Further studies should determine whether these reductions are clinically significant and whether they occur with other FHT or ART regimens.

The Use of a Special Stereoscopic Microscope Attachment for the Sieve Analysis of Aggregate in Concrete

The article proposes an innovative technique that allows relatively easy distinction of sand and aggregate particles on the surface image of a concrete specimen. The concept of the proposed approach involves the use of a new method of illuminating carefully polished surfaces of specimens. This is possible owing to a special attachment mounted on the lens of a stereoscopic microscope. The obtained digital image of the specimen, after being converted into a binary image, was subjected to a standard numerical analysis to determine the parameters characterizing the aggregate, i.e., particle size distribution (grading curve), maximum dimension, and shape. Two application examples are presented for analysing sand particle size and for determining the cement paste content in the concrete. The results obtained with the proposed technique were very promising and offer great potential for its practical implementation.

Study of Pharmacodynamic and Pharmacokinetic Interaction of Bojungikki-Tang with Aspirin in Healthy Subjects and Ischemic Stroke Patients

Background. Bojungikki-tang (BJIKT) is a widely used traditional herbal formula in China, Japan, and Korea. There have been reports that several herbs among BJIKT have interactions with antiplatelet drugs, such as aspirin. This study aimed to assess whether BJIKT interacts with aspirin in terms of pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) in healthy subjects and ischemic stroke patients. Methods. The phase I interaction trial was a randomized, open-label, crossover study of 10 healthy male subjects, and the phase III interaction trial was a randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel study of 43 ischemic stroke patients. Each participant randomly received aspirin + BJIKT or aspirin + placebo. For PK analysis, plasma acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) and salicylic acid (SA) were evaluated, and, for PD analysis, platelet aggregation and plasma thromboxane B2 (TxB2) were measured. Results. In the PK parameters, mean area under curve, maximum concertation, and peak concentration time of ASA and SA were not different between two groups in healthy subjects and ischemic stroke patients. In the PD profiles, TxB2 concentrations and platelet aggregation were not affected by coadministration of BJIKT in healthy subjects and ischemic stroke patients. Conclusions. These results suggest that coadministration of BJIKT with aspirin may not result in herb-drug interaction.

Beneficial Physiological Effects With Blackcurrant Intake in Endurance Athletes

Blackcurrant contains anthocyanins, known to influence vasorelaxation and peripheral blood flow. We examined the effects of 7 days intake of Sujon New Zealand blackcurrant powder (6g/day) on the lactate curve, maximum oxygen uptake, and cardiovascular responses at rest and during cycling. Thirteen trained triathletes with >3 yrs experience (8 men, age: 38 ± 8 yrs, body mass: 71 ± 9 kg, BF%: 19 ± 5%, mean ± SD) performed two incremental cycling protocols with recording of physiological and cardiovascular responses (Portapres Model 2). Cardiovascular function was also measured in rest. Experimental design was doubleblind, placebo-controlled, randomized and cross-over (wash-out 4 wks). Data were analyzed with two-tailed t tests and 2-way ANOVA and significance accepted at p < .05. Plasma lactate was lower at 40%, 50%, 60% and 70% of maximum power by 27%, 22%, 17% and 13%. Intensity at 4 mmol·L-1 OBLA was 6% higher with blackcurrant without effect on heart rate and oxygen uptake. Maximum values of oxygen uptake, heart rate and power were not affected by blackcurrant, but obtained with 14% lower lactate. In rest, blackcurrant increased stroke volume and cardiac output by 25% and 26%, and decreased total peripheral resistance by 16%, with no changes in blood pressure and heart rate. Cardiovascular responses during exercise at 40%, 50%, 60%, 70% and 80% intensity were not affected. Sujon New Zealand blackcurrant powder affects lactate production and/or clearance during exercise. Sujon New Zealand blackcurrant powder affects physiological and cardiovascular responses in rest and during exercise that may have implications for exercise performance.

Development of HPLC Protocol and Simultaneous Quantification of Four Free Flavonoids fromDracocephalum heterophyllumBenth.

Quantification of the four flavonoids, namely, luteolin, kaempferol, diosmetin, and chrysosplenetin, has been performed for the first time in 80% ethanolic extract ofDracocephalum heterophyllumB. through HPLC coupled to UV detector after optimization of extracting solvent and chromatographic conditions. Total flavonoids quantified were 0.324 mg/mL of the extract. HPLC analysis delivered contents of the luteolin, kaempferol, diosmetin, and chrysosplenetin as 0.08%, 0.14%, 0.28%, and 0.79% of the dried extract, respectively. LOD (%) values calculated were 0.04, 0.03, 0.03, and 0.08 and LOQ (%) values were 0.08, 0.12, 0.11, and 0.28 for luteolin, kaempferol, diosmetin, and chrysosplenetin, respectively. The recovery percentages for these flavonoids were within the acceptable range of 95% to 105%. Standard deviation and %RSD were calculated for each target analytes individually in extract for determining the reproducibility and accuracy of the method. In no case the %RSD was higher than 1 taking retention time as a factor while in the case of area under the curve maximum %RSD was noted in the case of diosmetin as 2.85. From our literature review regarding the plant species under study, it appears that these flavonoids have not been quantified before and are reported for the first time in this paper.