Quick Estimation Method of Property Damage and Human Casualty in the Event of a Large Earthquake

Techniques for quickly and easily estimating wide-area damage are required to support various activities for reducing damage in the event of a large earthquake. In this paper, using a wide-area evacuation simulator, we estimate property damage and human casualties in 32 densely built-up wooden residential areas in Tokyo, assuming a large earthquake. Furthermore, the relationships among local urban environment, property damage, and human casualties are analyzed using multiple regression analysis.

Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s

In this paper we investigate the effect of aging population on property (land) prices. A theory of very-long-run portfolio choice is developed for a transition economy from young and growing to rapidly aging population and applied to estimate property price inflation in Japanese municipal markets. The results are stunning. The simulation results in which income factors are assumed to be fixed at the 2005-10 growth level suggest that the average residential property price (land price) in the Japanese municipalities may decrease by as much as 19 percent from the present to 2020, 24 percent to 2030, and 32 percent to 2040.

Applicability of book value to estimate property of Polish forest management units

At present, various solutions are proposed for the appraisal of forest land and stands. Recently an important problem concerning business information is connected with the valuation of assets of individual forest districts. In practice, numerous methods are used to estimate the property of enterprises. However, there are no universal methods to estimate the value of an enterprise. One of these practically applicable methods is the book value method (BVM). In view of the above, it was decided to analyse the applicability of this method to valuate the property of forest districts. Based on the conducted case study and the discussion of results, it was found that the original BV method may not be used to appraise the property of forest districts. The primary justification for rejection of this method in the valuation of forest district property results was from the lack of financial balance information on the value of forest land and stands. As a result, the value of a forest district calculated using the BVM is underestimated. A lesser but significant effect on the estimated value of forest districts is also observed for cash flows related with the Forest Fund. In the case of net contributors, the estimated value of forest districts is overestimated and that of net beneficiaries is underestimated.