scholarly journals Aging and Property Prices: A Theory of Very-Long-Run Portfolio Choice and Its Predictions on  Japanese Municipalities in the 2040s

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 48-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshihiro Tamai ◽  
Chihiro Shimizu ◽  
Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Choice ◽  
Transition Economy ◽  
Aging Population ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Estimate Property

In this paper we investigate the effect of aging population on property (land) prices. A theory of very-long-run portfolio choice is developed for a transition economy from young and growing to rapidly aging population and applied to estimate property price inflation in Japanese municipal markets. The results are stunning. The simulation results in which income factors are assumed to be fixed at the 2005-10 growth level suggest that the average residential property price (land price) in the Japanese municipalities may decrease by as much as 19 percent from the present to 2020, 24 percent to 2030, and 32 percent to 2040.

scholarly journals RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE HIKE AND SPECULATION

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Razali Haron ◽  
Khairunisah Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Factors Influencing ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Price Hike

This study analyzes the behaviour of property price in Malaysia by examining factors influencing the residential property prices. It aims to determine whether property prices hike in Malaysia can be explained by the fundamental factors or it is due to other unexplained factors, such as speculation. Findings from the study reveal that most of the factors did have significant influence on property price. In addition, the cointegration analysis indicates that the property price and its factors are cointegrated for all property market segments across states. This implies the presence of a long run relationship between the property price and its determining factors, despite slow adjustment of property price towards equilibrium in the long run. This study concludes that the residential property price hike in Malaysia is impacted by fundamental factors and is not speculative in nature.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic and Demographic Determinants of Residential Property Prices in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan D. Trofimov ◽  
Nazaria Md. Aris ◽  
Dickson C. D. Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Causality Tests

Abstract This paper studies the relationship between residential property prices and macroeconomic and demographic determinants in Malaysia. In the years following the Asian financial crisis, property prices in Malaysia rose substantially, resulting in an affordability crisis and ultimately policy responses to the problem. Using unit root, Johansen-Juselius cointegration, VECM-based Granger causality tests and variance decomposition, and considering quarterly data that covers 2000-2015 period, we established that residential property price growth is principally driven by strong demographic performance and population growth and is backed by the low interest rate environment and rising consumer prices. Household income and level of GDP do not appear to contribute to property price growth. Certain distortions and asymmetries in the Malaysian real estate markets are documented: oversupply in the higher price segment of the market coupled with the lack of affordable housing in the lower price segment; household income growth lagging behind GDP and property price growth, thereby dampening housing demand; growing rental markets in major urban areas as a result of the affordability crisis; and a quality mismatch between buyers’ preferences and housing supply.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF GDP, INTEREST RATE, WAGE, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE IN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Badrud Duja ◽  
Heri Supriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

Over the past years, Indonesia’s economic growth has been recorded among the top developing countries. The economic growth is believed to contribute to the increase on residential property prices. The main objective of this study is to analyse the influence of determinants of residential property prices in Indonesia by examining the dynamic relationships of residential property prices reflected through the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment interest rates, wages, inflation and the exchange rate against the US dollar using secondary data over a period of thirteen-years between 2002Q1 and 2014Q4. By applying the Engle-Granger co-integration testand the error correction model, this research aims to see the relationship between the variables both in the short- and long-term. The results of the study indicated that macroeconomic factors that were significantly related to Indonesian residential property prices were GDP, wages, inflation, and exchange rates against the US dollar, while the investment interest rate was not included in these factors. Furthermore, based on the results of the regression analysis on research data, government policy in setting minimum wage standards has the greatest impact on residential property prices in the property sector in Indonesia. Thus, the results of this research are expected to provide the government with better viewpoints that will assist them in enacting better policies in the residential property sector.

scholarly journals Pengaruh KPR terhadap Keterjangkauan Harga Properti Residensial

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 182-197
Author(s):  
Pihri Buhaerah
Keyword(s):  
Public Housing ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Bank For International Settlements

AbstractThis paper describes and examines the linkage of house mortgages on residential property price growth in Indonesia by using qualitative and quantitative research methods. The qualitative research approach is used to elaborate descriptively the role of house mortgages on residential property prices. To strengthen it, this study then employs one of time series regression analyses namely autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the period of 2002Q1-2017Q4. To achieve the objective of this study, data was collected from secondary sources such as Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), and Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The qualitative approach shows that under lack of land banking and public housing zones, the expansion of house mortgages affect positively residential property prices both for private and public housing.  The argument has been confirmed from regression analysis by using the ARDL model. The estimation results using the ARDL model show that there is a positive and significant relationship between house mortgage on residential property price growth both in the long-run and in the short-run.  Keywords: house mortgage, property residential prices, land, ARDL modelJEL Classification: C22, E51, G21  AbstrakStudi ini membahas secara deskriptif dan empiris peran pembiayaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode penelitian kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Pendekatan kualitatif digunakan untuk menggambarkan secara deskriptif peran pembiyaan pemilikan rumah terhadap harga properti residensial. Selanjutnya, untuk memperkuat argument tersebut, studi ini kemudian melibatkan salah satu teknik analisis regresi data runtun waktu yaitu model autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) untuk periode 2002Q1-2017Q4. Untuk mencapai tujuan penelitian, data dikumpulkan dari beragam sumber data sekunder seperti Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bank Indonesia (BI), dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasilnya, dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif menunjukkan bahwa tanpa pelembagaan bank tanah dan zonasi khusus perumahan rakyat, skema pembiayaan kepemilikan rumah hanya akan melambungkan harga properti residensial. Argumen ini juga terkonfirmasi dari analisis regresi dengan menggunakan model ARDL. Hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model ARDL menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara kredit kepemilikan rumah dengan harga property residensial baik untuk jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang.  Kata Kunci: Kredit pemilikan rumah, harga properti residensial, tanah, model ARDLJEL Classification: C22, E51, G21 

On Hong Kong’s High Land Prices

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Chim Richard Wong
Keyword(s):  
Demand Management ◽  
The Public ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Public Pressure ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Short Run

Demand management cannot curb property price increases when demand continues to grow faster than supply. Punitive measures only bring temporary political relief for governments faced with mounting public pressure angrily demanding that something be done. Punitive demand management measures sends the wrong messages by focusing attention on property prices rather than supply shortages. The public becomes frustrated when property prices are not successfully curbed, except in the short run.

scholarly journals A DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR MALAYSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-34
Author(s):  
Nur Hafizah Ismail ◽  
Sabri Nayan
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Housing Industry

In recent years, the real estate market has become a major interest for economists and researchers. In general, property prices are influenced by the supply and demand of the real estate market. In addition to the individual's positive expectation of the real estate market would raise the demand for housing and hence, house price indexes would increase. This study provides new knowledge on how consumer confidence in the housing industry affects residential property prices in Malaysia. Previous studies on the effect of consumer perception towards residential property in Malaysia are scarce. Therefore, the objective of this study is to determine how consumer confidence affect residential property price in Malaysia. Our study differs by focusing on the effect of consumer confidence on the housing industry and macroeconomic drivers toward residential property prices in Malaysia over the period 2004:Q1 to 2018:Q4. By using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) test, the empirical results have shown the presence of long-run adjustment and indicate that consumer confidence towards the housing industry and many macroeconomic variables significantly affect residential property prices. From this finding, we have suggested that government and policymakers should be able to understand consumer confidence in the housing industry to increase consumer satisfaction and to improve consumer sentiment towards the residential property market in Malaysia.

scholarly journals The Anatomy of a Credit Crisis: The Boom and Bust in Farm Land Prices in the United States in the 1920s

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (4) ◽  
pp. 1439-1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raghuram Rajan ◽  
Rodney Ramcharan
Keyword(s):  
Asset Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Credit Crisis ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Farm Land ◽  
Credit Availability ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Boom And Bust

Does credit availability exacerbate asset price inflation? Are there long-run consequences? During the farm land price boom and bust before the Great Depression, we find that credit availability directly inflated land prices. Credit also amplified the relationship between positive fundamentals and land prices, leading to greater indebtedness. When fundamentals soured, areas with higher credit availability suffered a greater fall in land prices and had more bank failures. Land prices and credit availability also remained disproportionately low for decades in these areas, suggesting that leverage might render temporary credit-induced booms and busts persistent. We draw lessons for regulatory policy. (JEL E31, G21, G28, N22, N52, Q12, Q14)

scholarly journals Analysis of recent property price developments and implications for Local Property Tax liabilities and revenue yield

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-60
Author(s):  
Brendan O’Connor ◽  
Donal Lynch
Keyword(s):  
Transition Matrix ◽  
Property Tax ◽  
Property Values ◽  
Local Property ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Price Growth

Abstract The introduction of the Local Property Tax (LPT) in 2013 marked a significant reform to tax policy in Ireland. Initial liabilities for LPT were determined by self-assessment into bands of property values as of May 2013, and the first revaluation was initially scheduled for November 2016. Reflecting the significant residential property price growth which has occurred since the initial valuation date, this paper estimates the implications for LPT liabilities of a hypothetical revaluation at May 2015 property prices. Drawing on a range of data sources, the authors use a transition matrix approach to illustrate the likely changes in LPT valuation bands and liabilities for residential properties. Revaluation is estimated to significantly increase tax liabilities for some taxpayers, with properties in higher valuation bands in May 2013 incurring larger increases in liability. The analysis also indicates substantial regional variation in band changes, with the largest band movements mainly occurring in Dublin.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document